Vietnam and the Geopolitics of Critical Minerals

Why It Matters

Vietnam’s policy could reshape rare‑earth supply chains and give the country strategic leverage, while U.S. alliances aim to safeguard global tech and defense industries from Chinese coercion.

Key Takeaways

• Vietnam bans raw rare‑earth exports to boost domestic refining
• U.S. builds coalitions to cut reliance on Chinese minerals
• Hanoi pursues “niche superpower” status in rare‑earth processing
• Export restrictions link mineral wealth to industrial statecraft
• Fragmented mineral order may create competing supply networks

Pulse Analysis

The race for critical minerals has moved from oil‑centric geopolitics to a new arena where cobalt, lithium, nickel and rare‑earth elements dictate economic security. China currently controls up to 100 % of light and heavy rare‑earth processing, giving it leverage over high‑tech and defense sectors. In response, Washington has assembled a coalition of more than 50 partners through the Critical Minerals Ministerial, Project Vault, and the FORGE platform, aiming to diversify supply, create strategic stockpiles, and decouple key value chains from Beijing’s grip.

Vietnam, home to one of the world’s largest rare‑earth reserves, chose a different path. In December 2025 the government imposed a ban on exporting unprocessed rare‑earth concentrates, forcing foreign miners to partner with domestic refiners or relocate processing capacity inland. The policy is framed as an industrial‑statecraft tool, linking mineral extraction to national security ministries and to the broader “bamboo diplomacy” that balances ties with China, the United States, Japan and Europe. Hanoi’s ambition is to become a niche superpower in rare‑earth refining, turning raw deposits into strategic bargaining chips rather than simple export revenue.

The divergent strategies signal a fragmenting global minerals order. Countries aligned with the U.S. will likely benefit from coordinated investment, transparent standards and shared stockpiles, while Vietnam’s self‑reliant model could attract firms seeking secure downstream processing under favorable terms. Investors must watch for parallel supply networks: coalition‑driven corridors in the Americas and Africa, China‑centric routes in Asia, and Vietnam‑led refining hubs that could command premium pricing. As demand for electric‑vehicle batteries and AI hardware accelerates, the ability to navigate these competing ecosystems will become a decisive factor for manufacturers and policymakers alike.