Options & Derivatives

FDX Earnings Move a "Coin Flip:" Metrics & Options to Watch

Schwab Network
Schwab Network•Mar 19, 2026

Why It Matters

FedEx’s earnings will signal the health of global freight demand and can swing market sentiment, influencing logistics equities and risk‑management strategies in a volatile macro backdrop.

Key Takeaways

  • •FedEx EPS expected to drop 7.5% YoY to $4.14.
  • •Revenue forecast modest rise to $23.59B, up 6% YoY.
  • •Shipments per day projected to fall to 82,100.
  • •Historical earnings reaction is a “coin flip,” 50/50 chance.
  • •Portfolio manager favors downside put spread amid market uncertainty.

Summary

FedEx (FDX) is set to report earnings after the market close, and analysts view the release as a barometer for global trade amid lingering Middle‑East tensions and higher energy prices. The stock has outperformed UPS this year, up roughly 20% in 2026, but is hovering just below the 200‑day moving average, prompting caution.

The consensus expects adjusted EPS of $4.14, a 7.5% year‑over‑year decline from $4.51, while revenue is projected at $23.59 billion, a modest 6% increase. Daily shipments are anticipated to dip to about 82,100 from 87,400, with average weight staying near 923 lb. Freight‑related revenue versus standard package revenue will be closely watched, as historical earnings reactions have been essentially a 50/50 “coin flip.”

Alex Coffee highlighted the “coin flip” nature of FedEx’s earnings impact, noting the company’s role as an economic bellwether. Portfolio manager Joe Teague, however, is positioning a bearish 4335 put spread, citing the broader market’s uncertainty, technical weakness below key moving averages, and potential credit‑risk triggers from slowing demand.

If FedEx’s results miss expectations, the downside could accelerate a broader sell‑off in logistics stocks and reinforce defensive positioning. Conversely, a beat may provide a rare rally catalyst in a risk‑averse environment, making the earnings release pivotal for traders and investors monitoring supply‑chain health.

Original Description

FedEx (FDX) shares soared at the beginning of 2026 before experiencing a reversal once the U.S.-Iran War began. Alex Coffey talks about the metrics he sees as most important in the company's after-hour earnings Thursday. Joe Tigay talks about the "coin flip" chances FedEx has on moving to the downside after earnings by offering a bearish example options trade.
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