ADP Research Institute

Private Canaries

A new University of Chicago paper shows that private‑sector data—ADP payroll figures, Vanguard income and hiring metrics, and JPMorgan Chase checking‑account transactions—can reliably forecast the first and third releases of the BLS non‑farm payrolls and core CPI. The study argues that these real‑time signals could have justified an earlier 25‑basis‑point Fed rate cut in the summer of 2025. Declining response rates to traditional surveys and disruptions like the pandemic and a 2025 shutdown have heightened interest in such alternative data. The findings suggest a complementary role for private data in U.S. monetary policy making.