David Carlin's Digest

4 Scenarios On How The Iran Conflict Could Reshape Energy Markets

The article outlines four plausible futures for global energy markets based on U.S. actions and Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz. A U.S. withdrawal could either restore the status quo or lock in a new normal of higher, volatile oil prices, while U.S. escalation could lead to either a costly protracted conflict or a rapid, albeit uncertain, restoration of secure shipping. Across all scenarios, elevated oil prices, inflationary pressure, and an accelerated push toward domestic and renewable energy are expected. The analysis stresses that the conflict’s ripple effects will shape energy policy and market dynamics for months to come.