“Flash Talks on Iran, Oil, and OPEC” (UW Madison, Thursday, 4:30-6)
On April 16, 2024, the University of Wisconsin‑Madison Law School hosted a flash‑talk series titled “Flash Talks on Iran, Oil, and OPEC.” Sponsored by the Global Legal Studies Center, the two‑hour session featured political science and economics scholars Steven Brooke, Menzie Chinn, Corbett Grainger, and Greg Nemet. The panel examined how the United States’ ongoing conflict with Iran could disrupt global energy supplies, reshape Middle‑East diplomatic dynamics, and pressure OPEC’s production decisions. The discussion referenced the front‑month Brent futures contract for June, which has recently surged amid heightened geopolitical risk.
GDP Projections: One of These Is Not Like the Others
The latest chart juxtaposes U.S. real GDP growth forecasts from the Biden administration, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, the Wall Street Journal poll, the Fed’s GDPNow model, and Goldman Sachs. The administration’s projection, built on...
The WEO Wartime Economic Outlook
The IMF released its World Economic Outlook for April 2026, presenting a reference scenario that assumes a brief armed conflict. Global real GDP growth is projected at 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027, with headline inflation easing to 3.4% and...
Clifford Winston on “Where Did All the Affordable Cars Go?”
Clifford Winston’s recent NYT essay highlights the disappearance of affordable new cars in the United States. The average transaction price for a new vehicle has climbed to roughly $50,000, and as of December, finding a new car under $20,000 is...
Everyday Prices Jump
AIER’s proprietary Everyday Price Index (EPI) surged 2.5% in March 2026, reaching 307.4 – the second‑largest monthly gain since January 2020. Fourteen of the 24 component categories rose, led by motor fuel, housing fuels, utilities and food away from home,...
Instantaneous Inflation in March
The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast model reveals March’s instantaneous inflation rates for the PCE deflator, CPI quarter‑on‑quarter annualized, and PPI. The chart shows the three measures diverging, with the PCE deflator hovering near the Fed’s 2% target while CPI remains...
“U.S. to Blockade Ships Entering or Exiting Iranian Ports”
U.S. Central Command announced a full maritime blockade of all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports, effective April 13 at 10 a.m. ET, under the President’s proclamation. The restriction covers every nation’s ships but explicitly preserves freedom of navigation for traffic transiting...
Detrended Consumer Sentiment
Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to a record low in April, marking the deepest reading in the series. Detrended analysis shows sentiment has been trending downward for roughly the past 15 years, reinforcing the so‑called “vibecession” narrative of...
Economic Report of the President, 2026 Out on Monday
The White House will publish the Economic Report of the President (ERP) for 2026 on Monday. The report’s baseline GDP forecast mirrors the numbers presented in the FY 2026 budget, which rely on November data and assume an out‑of‑balance (OBE) scenario...
Republican Hopes Spring Eternal (Iran War/Economics Edition)
The University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment survey shows a modest decline in optimism for both Republicans and Democrats, but the partisan gap widens on expectations. Republican expectations slipped about 2.5% from February, while Democratic expectations plunged roughly 26%, far...
Inflation in March, and a Year From Now…
Iran has warned it will not resume talks or keep the Strait of Hormuz open until Israel stops bombing Lebanon, linking the conflict directly to its diplomatic leverage. In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a looming corruption trial that...
Standardized Sentiment in the Time of Trump
The latest standardized consumer‑sentiment composite fell to 47.6, missing the 51.6 consensus and down from 53.3 in the previous period. The chart tracks the University of Michigan, Conference Board and Gallup surveys from Q4 2019 through Q2 2026, all demeaned and scaled...
Dollar Reserves in the Wake of Trump
The IMF’s COFER data show the U.S. dollar’s share of global foreign‑exchange reserves has slipped, driven by a weaker dollar and a rally in gold prices. When exchange‑rate effects are stripped out, the dollar’s share actually rose after 2024 Q4,...
Business Cycle Indicators – Final GDP, GDO, Personal Income
The latest U.S. data releases show personal income excluding transfers slipped 0.1% month‑over‑month, falling short of Bloomberg’s +0.4% consensus. February household consumption also edged lower than analysts expected. Both metrics are among the two primary series the NBER Business Cycle...
Prediction Markets on Trump Credibility Re: Reopening the Strait
Kalshi’s prediction market shows investors assign a low probability to former President Donald Trump’s claim that the Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened soon. The market price reflects skepticism, pricing full reopening at under 20% likelihood. Meanwhile, December 2026...
