Freight Transportation Services Index Revised Down, Rising in April
The Bureau of Transportation Statistics revised the Freight Transportation Services Index down 1.2% for March, with smaller downward adjustments for earlier months. Although the index has been climbing since January 2026, it remains below its August peak. Parallel transportation data show airline passenger enplanements flat at early‑2025 levels, while vehicle‑miles‑travel surged in February before slowing in March as gasoline prices spiked. Analysts note that detrended freight‑service turning points have historically foreshadowed downturns, though past peaks did not trigger recessions.
“…It Will All Work Out Well in the End – It Always Does!”: Oil Edition
Former President Donald Trump reiterated his optimism about a resolution with Tehran, saying "it will all work out well in the end." Meanwhile, betting markets on Kalshi and Polymarket show the lowest ever odds that traffic through the Strait of...
Where to Find Business Cycle Chronologies for Countries
The post compiles a curated list of business‑cycle chronologies for major economies and cross‑country aggregates, linking to sources such as the NBER (U.S.), CEPR/EABCN (Euro area), national statistical offices, and private institutes like ECRI and the Conference Board. It notes...
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: Coincident Index
The Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index, combined with a Bloomberg consensus on May ADP private payroll, points to continued economic expansion through April 2026. The index aligns with other gauges such as manufacturing output and real retail sales, suggesting a broad-based...
Eight Measures of the US Price Level
The latest chart of eight U.S. price indices shows headline CPI posting the smallest increase since January 2025, while the CPI for wage earners and the CPI excluding shelter have risen more rapidly. All series are plotted in logarithmic terms, using...
Brent Vs. Gasoline and the Gasoline Stock Drawdown
China saw a net outflow of about $1 trillion in 2025, nearly matching its $1.2 trillion trade surplus. Regulators are tightening controls as capital flees to Hong Kong equities, where the Hang Seng is up 7.5% year‑to‑date but down 10% from its January peak....
Personal Income, Corporate Profits
Recent BEA data show that both pretax and after‑tax personal income have declined, while consumption growth has decelerated. In the first quarter, after‑tax corporate profits, including inventory valuation adjustments and capital consumption allowances, fell 0.4% month‑over‑month, missing the 5.7% consensus...
Business Cycle Indicators: Personal Income Trending Down
The latest data show personal income excluding transfers fell 0.4% month‑over‑month and was revised lower, shifting the apparent income peak to September 2025. Both nonfarm payrolls and civilian employment are slowing, with ADP confirming the trend, while population‑adjusted series add...
How Long Can Consumption Continue to Rise Strongly as Income Growth Slows?
Bloomberg’s consensus projects April’s real personal consumption to be flat, indicating zero growth year‑over‑year. The accompanying chart shows household net worth, consumption, and income transfers diverging, with net worth appearing flat in Q3 due to a March market dip, while...
ARIMA on Grocery Prices
Grocery‑at‑home CPI is climbing faster than the headline CPI, and a log‑scale chart shows the trajectory steepening from January to May 2026. The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) ARIMA model forecasts a 3.2% year‑over‑year rise in grocery prices for 2026,...
EPU and News Sentiment Since the War
The latest chart from the San Francisco Fed shows a clear split between the Shapiro‑Sudhof‑Wilson News Sentiment Index and Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) from 2024 through mid‑2026. After Jan 20 2025, news sentiment dropped noticeably while EPU climbed, a pattern confirmed by...
“From Bust to Boom: Stock Market Participation and the Housing Boom”
Yanshuo Chen’s 2026 paper links the early‑2000s housing boom to the dot‑com crash, showing that falling stock‑market participation prompted households to shift investments into real estate. Using a shift‑share design that exploits pre‑existing state‑level differences in equity exposure, the study...
Who Holds Federal Debt As of March 30
The latest Treasury data shows the public debt‑to‑GDP ratio climbing, with a detailed split of holders. Foreign non‑official investors now own roughly 15% of the debt, while foreign official central banks are essentially saturated. The Federal Reserve’s portfolio, shown as...
Adventures in Conditional Forecasting
Acting CEA Chair Pierre Yared warned that consumer prices will only ease once the war in the Strait of Hormuz ends, but the timing remains uncertain. Market odds on Kalshi place a 50% chance the strait reopens by September 1, which...
Yield Curves Under Trump 2.0
The U.S. Treasury yield curve, which had been flattening, began steepening after the onset of the war in early May 2026. Short‑term yields rose as market participants priced higher short‑term rates, while longer‑term yields climbed on heightened inflation expectations and...