How Do Fertility Rates Affect US Fiscal Sustainability?
The United States’ fertility rate has fallen to a record low of 1.57 births per woman in 2025, well below the 2.1 replacement threshold. Historical spikes during the Baby Boom created a surge in the old‑age dependency ratio, pushing entitlement spending from 2.5% to 9% of GDP since the 1960s. Recent declines in fertility do not ease fiscal pressure because child‑dependency costs rise while the older‑population burden continues to grow. Modeling shows that if the 2025 dependency ratio were frozen, a primary surplus could emerge around 2040, but a return to replacement‑level fertility would actually worsen the 30‑year budget outlook.
Do State Abortion Bans Affect Housing Markets?
New NBER research finds that states enacting total abortion bans after the June 2022 Dobbs decision experienced a measurable slowdown in rental price growth and a rise in vacancy rates compared with states protecting abortion access. Using Zillow rental indices...
The Jones Act and the Cost of Shipping Between U.S. Ports (UPDATED)
The Trump administration granted a 60‑day waiver of the Jones Act to ease oil market disruptions amid rising crude prices and supply‑chain strains from the Iran conflict. The Jones Act, a 1920 cabotage law requiring U.S.-flagged, U.S.-built vessels for domestic...
How Does the U.S. Tax System Stack Up?
The United States collects general‑government tax revenue equal to about 25.5% of GDP, roughly ten percentage points below the OECD average. Only two‑thirds of that revenue comes from the federal level, a share far lower than other industrial federations. Compliance...
The Rising Burden of Elder Care in the United States
The United States faces a growing elder‑care burden as the population ages. About 29% of adults 65 and older report difficulty with daily activities, rising to 60% for those 85+, while roughly one‑quarter of those in need receive no care....
