Europe Is Stuck With America
European leaders are confronting deep economic and military reliance on the United States after a year of Trump‑era tariffs, threats to withdraw troops, and pressure on energy supplies. The U.S. now accounts for over 20% of Europe’s exports and supplies the bulk of its LNG, while the dollar remains the dominant global currency. Although defense budgets are rising and the EU is diversifying trade partners, replacing American financial, payment and technology infrastructure proves costly and technically challenging. The continent’s strategic dilemma centers on balancing security autonomy with the economic benefits of continued U.S. engagement.
The Iran Shock
Within weeks of the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, Tehran’s near‑shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz halted roughly 20% of global oil and LNG transit, sending crude prices up 55% and gasoline up about $1 per gallon. The disruption exposed the...
America Is Losing the Innovation Race
China has transformed from a manufacturing hub into an innovation powerhouse, outpacing the United States in electric vehicles, batteries, robotics, next‑generation nuclear power and hypersonic missiles. The surge stems from a decade‑long, state‑driven strategy that funds basic research, talent development...
A Post-American Persian Gulf?
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has slashed oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz to roughly five percent of normal levels and damaged Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG plant, threatening a $20 billion annual export loss. Gulf states face immediate economic...
The Price of Strategic Incoherence in Iran
The Trump administration launched a preventive war against Iran without a clear strategy linking military means to political ends. It set overlapping goals—nuclear denial, missile neutralization, and regime change—yet achieved only tactical degradation while inflaming Tehran’s resolve. Repeated strikes have...
The False Promise of “Flexible Realism”
The authors argue that President Donald Trump’s foreign‑policy brand of “flexible realism” is a rhetorical veneer lacking substantive strategic coherence, especially evident in his aggressive posture toward Iran. By invoking Thucydides‑style power politics, the administration claims pragmatism while pursuing erratic...
Why Russia Is Losing the Sahel
Since 2020 Russia has pursued a resource‑for‑security strategy in the Sahel, backing coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger with Wagner mercenaries and intelligence support. Over five years the Kremlin’s footprint has stalled: a modest force of roughly 2,500 fighters cannot...
The Myth of Authoritarian Stability in the Middle East
President Donald Trump has openly pursued an authoritarian replacement for Iran’s late Supreme Leader, echoing a long‑standing U.S. belief that autocratic rule ensures regional stability. The article argues that this myth has deepened since the Arab Spring, as Gulf monarchies...
Will Iran Turn to Terrorism?
Operation Epic Fury has prompted Tehran to openly threaten terrorist attacks against the United States and its allies, citing the recent killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as justification. Iran’s Qods Force and proxy networks have accelerated recruitment of criminal groups and sleeper...
China Is Squeezing Southeast Asia
China’s Belt and Road and the China‑ASEAN FTA have made Southeast Asia its largest trading partner, with roughly $126 bn of Chinese investment over the past decade. Yet the region’s trade deficit with Beijing has swelled to about $140 bn in 2024...
How China Forgot Karl Marx
China’s labor share fell from 21% in 1987 to 15% in 2023, leaving workers with a shrinking slice of economic output. Despite dramatic poverty reduction, wages in manufacturing now rank near the bottom of a 87‑country survey, and the minimum...
Trump, Xi, and the Case for Strategic Calm
After a decade of heightened tensions, Washington and Beijing entered a tentative détente when President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping signed a Busan agreement in October 2025 that paused new U.S. tariffs and eased Chinese restrictions on rare‑earths and magnets....
How Iran Sees the War
In late February the United States and Israel launched a full‑scale war against Iran, assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and striking dozens of military, governmental and civilian targets. Within three weeks the campaign has crippled key energy facilities, airports and infrastructure,...
How America’s War on Iran Backfired
The Atlantic Council’s Nate Swanson argues that the United States’ aggressive posture toward Iran has backfired, culminating in an Iranian missile strike on central Israel and a diplomatic reversal. Tehran, emboldened by U.S. missteps, is now positioning itself to set...
Europe Cannot Be a Military Power
Since World War II Europe has depended on the United States for its security while deepening economic integration through the EU. Recent U.S. actions—ranging from aggressive diplomatic posturing to conditional NATO demands—have exposed the fragility of this arrangement. European leaders are...
Why Russia Is Watching Iran Burn
The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty signed by Putin and Iran’s president formalized political ties but contains no mutual‑defense clause. When the United States and Israel struck Iran in early 2024, Russia issued condemnations yet provided only limited intelligence and drone‑tactic...
How Takaichi Can Triumph
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi leveraged her landslide snap‑election win to double down on a U.S.-centric security strategy, positioning Japan as the linchpin of a broader Indo‑Pacific coalition against China. Her approach directly counters Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s call...
How Latin America Failed Venezuela
Over the past ten weeks the United States removed President Nicolás Maduro from power, sparking intense debate over the legality and necessity of the action. While Washington frames the move as a moral imperative against an authoritarian regime, critics argue it...
The Autonomous Battlefield
Autonomous warfare is moving from theory to practice, with Ukraine deploying millions of drones and AI‑assisted systems that operate even when communications are jammed. The conflict has demonstrated that autonomous formations can execute coordinated attacks without human pilots, compressing the...
Africa After Aid
When the United States and other major donors slashed foreign aid in 2025, analysts warned of imminent economic collapse across Africa. Yet recent data show most African economies have maintained or even modestly expanded growth, with Ethiopia posting 4.2% GDP...
The Trouble With State Capitalism
The authors argue that governments worldwide are moving toward a form of state capitalism, using export controls, investment‑screening mechanisms, and subsidies to steer corporate behavior toward geopolitical goals. This shift blurs the line between market‑driven decision‑making and political direction, compelling...
The Postliberal Superpower
The Trump administration has abandoned traditional liberal institutions and real‑politik rhetoric, replacing them with a post‑liberal agenda that mirrors illiberal democracies. It has shuttered agencies such as USAID and the Institute of Peace, cut funding for democracy‑promotion outlets, and pursued...
Iran’s Fair-Weather Friends
The piece examines Iran’s Iraqi proxy militias, which despite being part of Tehran’s “axis of resistance,” are largely staying out of the current Iran‑Israel‑U.S. war, focusing on profit and political control rather than frontline combat. It traces their evolution from...
Will China Overplay Its Hand?
The Trump‑Xi summit scheduled for late‑2026 follows a fragile 2025 Busan truce that temporarily halted tariffs and export bans. While the pause eased immediate market stress, critical issues such as transshipment tariffs, rare‑earth and high‑end semiconductor controls remain unresolved. Chinese...
The Abiding Question of the Iranian Bomb
On February 28, President Donald Trump ordered a sweeping military strike against Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and decapitated the regime’s senior leadership. The campaign quickly expanded to hit the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s missile forces, navy and...
The Coming Showdown Over Cuba
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a national emergency aimed at Cuba, accusing the island of hosting spies and terrorists and threatening tariffs on any nation supplying oil. Following the declaration, U.S. special forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, intensifying regional...
America and Israel’s War to Remake the Middle East
The United States and Israel launched a coordinated strike—codenamed Epic Fury and Rising Lion—marking the first fully integrated U.S.-Israeli combat operation against Iran. The joint effort combined American air power with Israeli intelligence and special‑operations assets, targeting Tehran’s nuclear and...
Taiwan Doesn’t Have to Choose
Taiwan, home to 23 million people, sits at the nexus of global trade routes and the semiconductor supply chain, making its stability a linchpin for worldwide commerce. The Kuomintang (KMT) argues that the island should not be forced to align exclusively...
Ukraine Is Losing the War
Four years after Russia launched its full‑scale invasion, a draft U.S. peace plan proposes recognizing Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk as Russian‑controlled and allowing Russia to keep occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Kyiv, led by President Volodymyr Zelensky, has rejected any...
Japan’s National Security Reckoning
Japan is overhauling its national security strategy as U.S. “America First” policies erode traditional defense guarantees. Rising Chinese assertiveness, the spillover of the Ukraine war, and rapid advances in drone and AI warfare have forced Tokyo to prioritize strategic autonomy....
The Perils of Militarizing Law Enforcement
In August 2025 President Donald Trump declared a crime emergency in Washington, D.C. and deployed the National Guard to patrol city streets, marking the first large‑scale use of federal troops for domestic policing in the United States. Similar attempts have...
Europe’s Next War
Europe faces heightened risk of a broader NATO‑Russia confrontation as the Ukraine war drags on. Over the past four years, NATO allies have poured hundreds of billions of dollars in military, economic, and humanitarian aid into Ukraine, while European nations...
Ukraine and the New Way of War
Four years after Russia’s full‑scale invasion, the Ukraine war has defied early forecasts by persisting far longer and costing both sides more than anticipated. Kyiv’s ability to adapt, innovate militarily, and marshal extensive U.S., European, and global support has been...
The Dream Palace of the West
Finland’s President Alexander Stubb warns that the West’s last chance to shape a cooperative world order hinges on listening to the global South. He argues that Western sanctions on Russia and confrontational policies toward China alienate billions, eroding the West’s moral...
The Price of Peace in Ukraine
Four years after Russia’s invasion, Ukraine’s original goal of restoring its 1991 borders has become unattainable following the stalled 2023 counteroffensive. Western leaders now accept Russia’s de facto control of Crimea and most of the Donbas, yet they continue to...
America the Fearful
In early January 2026, U.S. special‑operations forces conducted a raid on Caracas and seized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Deputy White House chief of staff Stephen Miller defended the operation as a demonstration of American strength in a chaotic world. The move marks...
The AI Divide
U.S. and China dominate the AI ecosystem, employing 70% of the world’s top machine‑learning researchers, controlling 90% of computing power, and securing the majority of AI investment. This concentration creates an “AI divide” that could lock most other countries into...
Europe Needs an Army
Max Bergmann argues that Europe can no longer rely on the United States for security, citing the Trump administration’s hostile stance toward NATO, reduced aid to Ukraine, and tariff wars. The piece warns that the transatlantic alliance is fraying and that...
The Real Risks of the Saudi-UAE Feud
A deepening rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is reshaping Gulf politics as Riyadh pursues Vision 2030 and seeks to eclipse Abu Dhabi’s dominance in finance, tourism and logistics. The split, first evident in public accusations of the UAE...
There Is Only One Sphere of Influence
The article argues that the United States now enjoys a unique, uncontested sphere of influence across the Western Hemisphere, anchored by overwhelming military spending and deep economic integration. By contrast, China and Russia lack the capacity to establish comparable regional...
The Predatory Hegemon
Stephen M. Walt argues that Donald Trump’s second term embodies a "predatory hegemon" strategy, merging illiberal hegemony with a demand for reciprocity from other states. The piece surveys competing labels—realist, nationalist, mercantilist, imperialist, isolationist—before concluding that Trump’s approach is best...
The Paradox of Wartime Commerce
The article examines why nations continue to trade even amid armed conflict, highlighting the paradox of wartime commerce. It uses the United States‑China relationship as a case study, noting Washington’s push to “de‑risk” supply chains and the 2025 Chinese embargo...
Peace Through Leverage in Gaza
The Trump administration launched the second phase of its Gaza peace plan, a move endorsed by the UN Security Council in November. Phase one, which began in October, secured a cease‑fire, returned hostages, freed roughly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, and restored...