The Commodities Feed: Oil Falls Below $100 on Optimism over Iran War
Oil prices slipped below $100 per barrel after President Trump signaled a possible end to the Iran conflict, prompting Brent and WTI to trade under the psychological $100 mark. U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose 10.3 million barrels, while the API data contrasted with a pending EIA report. Gold rallied above $4,700 an ounce as the dollar weakened and investors chased safe‑haven assets. Meanwhile, cocoa surged over 5% on drought concerns in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, and Chile’s copper output fell to a nine‑year low.
South Korea’s Economy Benefits From Robust Chip Exports and Fiscal Support
South Korea’s March exports surged 48.3% year‑on‑year, driven primarily by a 151% jump in semiconductor shipments and sharp price gains in computers and SSDs. The trade surplus expanded to $25 billion, up from $15 billion a month earlier, while imports rose 13.2%...
CIS Macro and Credit: Commodity Buffers Cushion Middle East Risks
The ongoing Middle East conflict is reverberating through the CIS region via higher oil prices, trade disruptions and imported inflation. Commodity buffers are cushioning the shock: Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan see stronger export prospects, while Armenia’s reliance on fuel imports makes...
Polish Fuel Prices up in March, but There’s Little Heat Elsewhere
Poland’s consumer price index rose to 3.0% year‑on‑year in March, up from 2.1% in February, driven almost entirely by a 15.4% jump in fuel prices. The surge added roughly 0.8 percentage points to headline inflation, while core inflation remained steady...
German Jobs Resilience Offers Scant Support for Private Consumption
German unemployment fell by 48,700 in March, the strongest March performance since 2022, yet the total jobless count stayed above the politically sensitive three‑million threshold for a third consecutive month, a level not seen since 2014. The decline masks deeper...
French Inflation Picks up as the Economy Stalls
French consumer prices jumped 1.7% year‑over‑year in March, driven primarily by a 7.3% surge in energy inflation linked to the Middle‑East conflict. The harmonised inflation rate rose to 1.9%, while core price growth remained modest, with food inflation easing to...
Mild Increase in Dutch Inflation, for Now
Netherlands headline inflation rose to 2.6% YoY in March, up from 2.3% in February, driven by a 6.6% jump in energy and fuel prices. Over half of households are insulated by fixed‑price contracts, limiting immediate cost‑of‑living impacts. Core inflation eased...
Rates Spark: The EUR Curve Is at a Delicate Balance
Eurozone short‑term rates are climbing in lockstep with Brent oil, which has stayed above $100 per barrel, while longer‑dated rates show signs of strain. The 2‑year‑to‑5‑year segment is flattening and could invert if oil breaches $120, suggesting a potential ECB...
Webinar: Europe’s Housing Markets in a Volatile World
ING is hosting a 45‑minute webinar on 1 April to examine Europe’s residential real‑estate landscape amid higher‑for‑longer interest rates, persistent supply shortages, and shifting regulations. The discussion will focus on the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany, while also addressing energy‑price volatility linked...
German Housing Market Likely to Bend, Not Break
German house prices rose 3.2% in 2025, bringing the market back into positive growth after two years of decline, yet they remain about 8% below the 2022 peak. Quarterly price momentum slowed sharply, with only 0.1% growth in Q4 2025,...
National Bank of Hungary Review: No Need to Panic, Unless…
The National Bank of Hungary kept its key policy rate at 6.25% on 24 March, reflecting a hawkish stance amid Middle‑East tensions and an energy‑price shock. Inflation fell to a ten‑year low, but the bank expects it to stabilize around 4%...
Eurozone PMI Drops to 10-Month Low on Middle East Conflict
Eurozone's composite PMI fell to 50.5 in March, the lowest level in ten months, down from 51.9 in February. Manufacturing output remained modestly positive at 51.7, while the services PMI slipped to 50.1, indicating contraction. Input prices rose sharply as...
Japan’s Soft Inflation Is Temporary and Won’t Alter BoJ’s Rate Hike Cycle
Japan’s February consumer‑price inflation slowed to 1.3% YoY, driven by lower fresh‑food and utility costs, while core‑core inflation stayed near 2.5% above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Wage negotiations indicate a 5.26% average increase, and PMI readings remain in...
Polish Consumer to Feel Impact of Middle East Conflict in March
Polish retail sales rose 5.0% year‑on‑year in February, outpacing consensus but driven by a low base from 2025. Growth slowed in durable goods and textiles, while car sales rebounded. Analysts warn that the escalating Middle East conflict, which has spiked...
Watch: Why We Still Think EUR/USD Can Reach 1.20
ING’s foreign‑exchange strategists remain bullish on the euro, forecasting EUR/USD could climb to 1.20 by year‑end despite heightened geopolitical risk, rising oil prices and a temporary US inflation spike. They argue the Federal Reserve will treat the oil‑driven price bump...
FX Daily: Hawkish Hangover
European central banks delivered a hawkish surprise, pushing the euro and pound higher while the dollar weakened. The ECB signaled a possible April rate hike, adding 15 basis points to market expectations, and the Bank of England voted unanimously to...
Asia Week Ahead: Japanese Inflation and South Korean Sentiment Data
Japan’s February CPI is expected to slow further thanks to an energy subsidy, but core‑core inflation will stay well above the 2% target, keeping the Bank of Japan cautious about rate hikes. The central bank is likely to postpone an...
The Commodities Feed: LNG Supply Disruptions Now a Long-Term Problem as Iran Hits Qatari Facilities
Iranian missile attacks on Qatar's Ras Laffen LNG complex knocked out roughly 17% of the plant’s export capacity, equivalent to about 17 bcm or 3 % of global LNG trade. The disruption is expected to linger for three to five years, prompting the...
AI Monthly: AI’s Green Thumb Raises Bigger Questions for Agriculture
An autonomous AI system cultivated a tomato plant named Sol from seed to fruit, harvesting eight ripe tomatoes in a 100‑day controlled experiment. The project proves AI can manage plant physiology through sensor‑driven adjustments, yet it relied on a perfectly...
Europe’s Last Chance to Revive Its Pharmaceutical Innovation Power
Europe’s pharmaceutical sector is losing its historic lead in R&D, with its share of global private research dropping from roughly half in 1990 to a third in 2025, while the United States now commands 55% and China is rapidly closing...
Rates Spark: The Impact Is No Longer Transitory
The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield is projected to climb into a 4.25‑4.5% band before easing back toward 4%, driven by higher nominal and real yields after the war’s shock. Even as the conflict winds down, inflation expectations remain structurally elevated,...
Pulled in Opposite Directions, the Swiss National Bank Is Likely to Keep Rates Steady
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to keep its policy rate at 0% as inflation remains near‑zero, hovering between 0.1% and 0.3% year‑on‑year. Recent forecasts show a modest rise to 0.2% in 2026 and 0.8% by mid‑2028, supporting a...
FX Talking: Forecast Table
ING’s research team released its latest foreign‑exchange forecast table on 16 March 2026, drawing on Refinitiv data and internal modeling. The outlook covers major pairs such as USD/EUR, GBP/USD, and emerging‑market currencies, highlighting expected rate movements through the year. Analysts attribute the...
The Commodities Feed: Brent Remains Above $100/Bbl as Iran Conflict Develops
Brent crude surged to $106.50 a barrel as strikes on Iran's Kharg Island raised supply fears, while a drone attack temporarily halted loading at Fujairah port. The International Energy Agency announced a coordinated emergency release of just under 412 million barrels,...
Petrol Price Surge Puts Poland’s Low‑inflation Trajectory at Risk
Poland’s inflation outlook has soured as March petrol prices jumped roughly 15%, threatening to push the CPI above the 3% year‑on‑year mark. While core inflation remained modest, the surge in oil and gas prices—driven by the Middle East conflict—creates a...
Italian Industrial Production Started 2026 on a Soft Footing
Italy's industrial production in January 2026 slipped 0.6% month‑on‑month, extending a downturn. Year‑on‑year output also fell 0.6%, reversing a modest 2.7% gain recorded in December. While energy output grew and transport equipment rose, consumer, intermediate and investment goods contracted, and...
Pharma’s Godfather Moment: Pulled Back Into Tariff Uncertainty
The U.S. Supreme Court nullified President Trump’s emergency authority to impose tariffs, reigniting uncertainty for the pharmaceutical sector. Despite the ruling, most‑favored‑nation (MFN) pricing agreements between branded drug makers and the Administration are expected to hold, though new U.S. manufacturing...
Rethinking Transatlantic Power: Why Trade Dependencies Cut Both Ways
The article examines transatlantic trade dependencies, showing that while the United States remains a major market for Europe, the EU actually supplies more strategically important products to the United States than vice‑versa. Data from CEPII indicate the US imports 36...
UK Economy Begins 2026 on a Softer Note Ahead of Energy Price Storm
The UK’s economy started 2026 sluggishly, with January’s GDP unchanged from December as administrative support services and hospitality contracted sharply. While three‑month averages suggest modest growth, the data’s volatility raises uncertainty about the near‑term trajectory. A sustained rise in gas...
Turkish Central Bank Holds Rates and Shifts Away From Easing Bias
The Central Bank of Turkey kept its one‑week repo rate at 37% and left the interest‑rate corridor unchanged at 35.5%‑40%, signaling a pause amid heightened global risk and rising energy prices. In its statement the bank shifted away from an...
Watch: Your Oil Questions Answered
ING commodity strategist Warren Patterson discusses the ongoing oil price volatility, with Brent crude intermittently breaching $100 per barrel despite the International Energy Agency’s announcement of record supply releases. He examines how the conflict with Iran, particularly the strategic choke...
Turkish Current Account Deficit Jumps After Methodological Revision
Turkey's current account posted a $6.8 bn deficit in January, far above the $4.8 bn forecast and analysts' $5.4 bn estimate. The gap was amplified by the Central Bank of Turkey's methodological change, which has retroactively added $8.9 bn to interest‑payment calculations since September 2020....
Eurozone Households Are First to Feel the Pain of the Current Oil Price Shock
Eurozone households are the first to feel the impact of the latest oil price shock as retail fuel prices surge across the region. A 50‑litre tank now costs €4.5‑€13 more for petrol and €8.4‑€21.5 more for diesel, with Germany seeing...
The Commodities Feed: Record Oil Release Fails to Rein in Prices
The International Energy Agency announced a coordinated emergency release of up to 400 million barrels of crude oil, the largest ever, yet Brent futures surged to near $100 per barrel. Market analysts attribute the rally to ongoing disruptions in the Persian...
ECB Preview: Time for a Panic Room in the ECB’s ‘Good Place’
The European Central Bank heads into its March 18 meeting facing a sharp shift in the macro backdrop as the Middle East war drives oil prices higher, removing any realistic chance of further rate cuts. Instead of fine‑tuning inflation forecasts,...
Dutch Economy Enters Middle East Crisis From a Position of Strength
The Dutch economy posted stronger‑than‑expected Q4 2025 growth, buoyed by robust goods exports and solid government consumption, creating a positive carry‑over into 2026. Manufacturing output rose 0.4% in January and consumer sales improved despite muted retail sentiment. While the Middle‑East...
Copper Charts to Watch as Prices Slip Below $13,000/T
Copper prices have slipped below $13,000 per tonne as a stronger US dollar, rising energy costs and Middle‑East tensions dampen risk appetite. At the same time, visible inventories on the LME, SHFE and COMEX have surged by more than 500,000...
German Industrial Production Still Struggles to Gain Positive Momentum
German industrial production slipped 0.5% month‑on‑month in January, leaving output 1.2% lower than a year ago, with the metal and pharmaceuticals sectors bearing the brunt. New industrial orders collapsed by more than 10% MoM, reflecting a reversal of the bulk‑order...
Asia Week Ahead: Focus on Japan’s GDP Data and Key Inflation Release From China
Japan is set to revise its 2025 Q4 GDP upward to 0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter, driven by strong winter bonuses and a rebound in capital spending. In China, February CPI is expected to rise to 1.0% year‑on‑year, buoyed by Lunar New Year...
South Korean Inflation Holds Steady, but Upside Risks Are Increasing Sharply
South Korea's headline CPI held at 2.0% year‑on‑year in February, while core inflation rose to 2.3%. Fresh food and petroleum prices fell, but service costs increased, showing lingering price pressure. Higher global oil prices and a weakening won have sharpened...
US Activity Was Surging Ahead of Military Action
U.S. ISM surveys show the economy accelerating in early 2026, with the February services index climbing to 56.1 and overall business activity reaching 59.9, the strongest pace since May 2024. New orders and order backlogs also surged, supporting a projection...
Divergent Chinese PMIs Suggest Resilient External Demand, but Soft Domestic Environment
China's official manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.0 in February, matching a 33‑month low, while the private RatingDog index rose to 52.1, highlighting a split between domestic weakness and export‑driven resilience. Sub‑indices show production, new orders and employment contracting, even as...
Eurozone Inflation at Risk of Trending Higher over War in Middle East
Eurozone February inflation rose modestly, with headline rates climbing from 1.7 % to 1.9 % and core inflation edging up to 2.4 %. The increase occurred despite a smaller energy contribution, signalling persistent price pressures in services and goods. The ongoing Middle East...
February Brings Another Sharp Inflation Rise in Turkey
Turkey's annual inflation rose to 31.5% in February, driven primarily by a 2.96% month‑on‑month CPI increase. Food prices surged, with annual food inflation at 36.5%, while core inflation eased to 29.5%, its lowest since late 2021. Producer‑price inflation remained around...
National Bank of Poland Preview: Geopolitical Tension Makes a March Cut a Close Call
Poland’s central bank is poised to cut rates by 25 basis points in March, aligning with its recent dovish communication and a cooling inflation outlook. However, recent US‑Israeli strikes on Iran have raised oil prices, introducing upside risks to headline...
Asia’s Outlook Under Higher Oil Prices
Asia can currently absorb the recent oil‑price surge, but the region’s heavy reliance on imported energy makes it vulnerable if prices stay high. Japan and the Philippines source almost 90% of their oil from the Middle East, while China and...
Bank of Japan Won’t Alter Its Policy Normalisation Path
The Bank of Japan affirmed its commitment to a gradual policy normalisation path, emphasizing data‑driven decisions despite the appointment of two dovish board nominees. While the new members are expected to voice opposition to tightening, the overall board composition remains...
FX Daily: Nvidia Earnings Could Be Big for FX
Ahead of Nvidia's earnings, analysts warn that a miss could trigger broader risk aversion, hitting the most exposed G10 currencies such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Norwegian krone. The USD’s reaction will signal whether AI‑related concerns remain confined...
National Bank of Hungary Review: The Rate Cut Has Arrived, but What’s Next?
After 16 months of steady rates, the National Bank of Hungary cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% in February, aligning with broad market expectations. The central bank’s forward guidance remains data‑driven and open‑ended, prompting ING...
Dollar 2026 Decline: More Cyclical than Structural
The dollar’s recent slide is viewed as a cyclical correction rather than a structural collapse, with the real trade‑weighted index still well above its long‑term average. Hedging activity is rising, with buy‑side hedge ratios projected to reach roughly 74% by...