Rates Spark: Bonds Losing Their Edge as a Hedge
Bonds are losing their appeal as a hedge against equities as correlations between German Bunds and stock indices hit record highs, while long‑end inflation expectations remain anchored. Front‑end rates are volatile amid lingering Middle East tensions, but the longer end shows no sign of a risk‑off shift. The upcoming Fed confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh could clarify the central bank’s plan to shrink its bond balance sheet, adding further pressure on term premiums. Meanwhile, the UK and Germany are issuing sizable sovereign debt, increasing supply in a market where bonds are already under strain.
FX Daily: Dollar to Weigh up Warsh
Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing is set to dominate U.S. monetary policy headlines, with markets expecting a dovish stance on rates and a hawkish approach to the Fed’s balance‑sheet reduction. A potential Iranian delegation to peace talks in Pakistan is...
The Commodities Feed: Peace Talk Optimism Clouds Reality
Oil markets rallied on optimism that renewed US‑Iran peace talks could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but analysts warn the price gains under‑price the ongoing supply disruption. European gas prices remain low, with the Dutch TTF below €40/MWh despite a...
Kevin Warsh’s Fed Confirmation Faces Tough Tests
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and Trump‑nominated candidate for chair, faces a Senate hearing that will test his alignment with the President’s demand for lower interest rates. Warsh is expected to argue for a dovish stance, citing the potential...
FX Daily: Looking for a New Steady State for the Dollar
The dollar rebounded after the Strait of Hormuz was declared fully open, but analysts expect it to hover around the 97.5‑98 DXY level for the rest of the quarter. Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that prolonged high oil prices could...
G10 FX Talking: Time to Back the Hawkish Central Banks
ING’s latest G10 FX outlook highlights a shift toward real‑rate driven moves as hawkish central banks gain traction. The firm expects the euro to climb to 1.20 against the dollar by year‑end, while the Fed is projected to cut rates...
Carsten: What the Middle East War Means for the Economy Right Now
The ongoing war in the Middle East is already pushing global oil prices higher, feeding inflation and dampening growth prospects. ING’s macro chief Carsten Brzeski cautions that while a recession is not yet inevitable, the conflict will “hammer” economic expansion....
Latam FX Talking: The Brazilian Real Has Fared Well From the Crisis
ING’s Latin America FX outlook sees the Brazilian real emerging as the region’s top high‑yield currency in 2026. The firm projects USD/BRL falling to 4.50 within a year, translating to an implied 13% annual yield and a real‑effective exchange rate...
FX Talking: Forecast Table
ING’s April 2026 “FX Talking: Forecast Table” delivers a forward‑looking outlook on major currency pairs, outlining expected appreciation and depreciation trends through the next twelve months. The table presents baseline, upside and downside scenarios, integrating macro‑economic variables, commodity price movements and...
Double-Digit Wage Growth Makes a Cameo Appearance in Hungary
Hungary’s February wage data showed a 9.7% year‑over‑year rise in average earnings, pushing real wages into double‑digit growth at 10.5% thanks to record‑low inflation. The median wage jumped 11.8%, mirroring the minimum‑wage increase and compressing lower‑income brackets. Wage gains were...
Belgium’s Fiscal Clean-Up Still Has a Long Way to Go
Belgium’s federal government launched a fiscal consolidation drive over a year ago, delivering modest structural reforms in pensions, labour and capital taxes. The National Bank of Belgium estimates the package will generate net savings of about 1.1 percentage points of GDP...
Asia Week Ahead: Rate Decisions in China, Indonesia, Philippines and Key Data From Japan and Korea
Asian central banks are set to announce key policy moves next week. China is expected to leave its loan prime rates unchanged despite stronger‑than‑expected Q1 GDP, while Indonesia’s Bank Indonesia will likely keep rates steady as inflation hovers around 3.5%....
Middle East Escalation Pushes Aluminium Into a Structural Deficit
Escalating tensions in the Middle East have forced key Gulf aluminium smelters to curtail output, turning a logistics shock into a structural supply deficit. Emirates Global Aluminium halted its Al Taweelah plant, while Alba operates at roughly 30% of capacity and...
Dutch Economy Sees Recent Momentum Beginning to Fade
At the start of 2026 the Dutch economy, which posted a strong 1.8% growth in 2025, is now expected to slow to about 1.3% in the first quarter. Recent data show declines in industrial production, exports, retail sales and car...
ECB Minutes From March Meeting Confirm Hawkish Pivot
The European Central Bank’s March minutes confirm a hawkish pivot, yet the Governing Council signals no rush to tighten policy further. Officials highlighted downside risks to growth from the Middle East conflict and upside risks to inflation, especially via stronger...
ING Monthly: The World Waits for a Climbdown
The six‑week war in the Middle East is adding a fresh stagflationary drag to the global economy, according to ING's macro chief Carsten Brzeski. Conflict‑driven supply‑chain bottlenecks are pushing energy and commodity prices higher, while growth forecasts are being trimmed....
The World Waits for a Climbdown
ING’s Carsten Brzeski outlines a base‑case scenario where Iran‑U.S. talks extend 2‑4 weeks, leading to a limited blockade of the Strait of Hormuz before traffic resumes. Oil prices are projected to dip below $90 per barrel by year‑end, easing some pressure...
Three Scenarios for Energy, Central Banks, Rates and FX Markets
ING outlines three energy‑price scenarios tied to the Middle East cease‑fire outlook. In a base case, Brent crude steadies at $90‑100 per barrel and the euro trades around 1.18‑1.20 by year‑end. A moderate disruption pushes Brent above $100 and lifts...
Energy Market Outlook Hinges on the Middle East
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain largely cut off, tightening the physical market and creating a $30‑per‑barrel premium for dated Brent over futures. About 13 million barrels per day are offline, prompting demand‑destruction measures in Asia and likely elsewhere....
Our Latest Views on the Major Central Banks
ING’s latest outlook assesses the Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ as they navigate a fresh oil price shock and lingering inflation pressures. The Fed sees inflation testing 4% but expects sub‑2% by 2027 if energy costs fall, opening space for...
Monitoring Turkey: Geopolitics Compounds Macro Challenges
Turkey’s economy remains under strain as inflation expectations were lifted to 27.5% for 2024, driven by higher energy costs and a tax‑adjusted petrol price regime. The government’s fiscal gap narrowed to a 12‑month deficit of 2.2% of GDP—about $75 bn—thanks to...
Eurozone Industrial Production Was Sluggish Ahead of Middle East War
Eurozone industrial production edged up 0.4% in February but remains below 2025 levels, signaling a weak start to 2026. The modest gain was uneven, with Germany, France and the Netherlands posting declines while Italy saw a slight rise and Ireland...
Rates Spark: Hard to Make High Conviction Central Bank Calls
Predicting central‑bank moves has become increasingly fraught as oil price swings directly tilt rate‑hike expectations. The ECB appears set to pause in April, yet markets still price a 25‑bp hike by June and another by year‑end, while the Fed and...
FX Daily: Pushing Forward Into De-Escalation Trades
The U.S. dollar slipped to just 0.5% above pre‑war levels as optimism grows around a Middle‑East de‑escalation, aided by a softer‑than‑expected March PPI (0.5% MoM) and modest Fed easing expectations. The Fed’s upcoming Beige Book and the April 21 Senate...
Rates Spark: Equities Are Back, but Bonds Are Not - Why?
Equities have largely rebounded from the February‑28 Middle East turmoil, with the S&P 500 regaining roughly 80% of its losses, while high‑yield spreads have normalized. Bond markets remain under pressure as long‑tenor yields stay elevated, driven by stubborn inflation and higher...
Poland’s External Current Account Deteriorated in February Amid Rising Flows From China
Poland's external current account turned from a €1.05 billion surplus in January to a €990 million deficit in February, roughly $1.07 billion. The deficit was driven by a €1.025 billion goods trade shortfall, offset by a robust €3.029 billion services surplus (about $3.27 billion). Imports surged...
Turkey’s Current Account Deficit Widens Further
Turkey’s current account deficit widened to $7.5 billion in February, surpassing forecasts and pushing the 12‑month deficit to $35.4 billion, or about 2.4 % of GDP. The trade gap turned negative, expanding to $‑7.5 billion, driven by higher gold imports despite lower energy costs....
Webinar: Energy Security Under Strain - Why Cutting Europe’s Gas Dependency Won’t Be Easy
A webinar on 17 April will examine Europe’s heavy reliance on imported gas—about 70 % of its consumption—against the backdrop of renewed Middle‑East tensions. Speakers from ING will assess short‑term tools to mitigate supply risk and explain why a swift shift to...
FX Daily: Failed Peace Talks Give the Dollar a Brief Lift
After US‑Iran peace talks in Islamabad stalled, the DXY index nudged up about 0.4%, while oil prices jumped 7‑8% on news of a U.S. naval blockade aimed at curbing Iran’s roughly one‑million‑barrel‑per‑day exports. The limited rally reflects market relief that...
US Inflation Much More Likely to Be Transitory This Time Around
U.S. headline CPI jumped 0.9% in March, largely because gasoline prices surged 21.2% month‑on‑month. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose only 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, coming in below analysts’ forecasts. The report highlights weaker corporate pricing...
Watch: How the Energy Shock Is Hammering Europe’s Construction Industry
Europe’s construction sector is feeling the squeeze from persistently high oil and gas prices triggered by the Middle East conflict. ING’s Maurice van Sante notes that price‑rise expectations are the strongest since the 2022 energy crisis. Nearly one‑fifth of European...
Taiwan’s Trade Growth Smashes All Forecasts, Lifting the 2026 Growth Outlook
Taiwan’s March trade data showed exports soaring 61.8% year‑on‑year and imports rising 38.3%, far outpacing analysts’ expectations. The surge was driven by an 81.9% jump in machinery and electrical equipment shipments, especially a 134.5% rise in information‑communication‑audio‑video products. Export prices...
FX Daily: First Inflation Test
The market awaits the March US CPI report, expected to show a 0.9‑percentage‑point monthly jump and a 3.4% year‑on‑year increase, with core inflation only modestly higher. A higher‑than‑expected headline could keep the dollar firm, but the Fed is likely to...
The Commodities Feed: Oil Supported by Ongoing Supply Risks
Oil prices extended gains for a second day as Saudi Arabia’s crude‑export capacity fell roughly 600,000 barrels per day after attacks on its energy infrastructure and a strike on the East‑West pipeline cut another 700,000 barrels. Brent hovered around $96...
Bank of Korea Holds Rates Steady, Stressing Outlook Is Data Dependent
The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% on April 10, citing persistent inflation and heightened geopolitical risk. Governor Rhee, set to retire on April 20, emphasized a data‑dependent approach and avoided any forward guidance on future...
Asia Week Ahead: China Releases Data on GDP, Trade, Retail Sales, Housing Prices
China will release a suite of economic data next week, including first‑quarter GDP, trade balances, retail sales, housing prices and industrial production. Analysts expect March exports to rise 8.8% YoY and imports 10.1%, creating a $108.2 bn trade surplus. Q1 GDP...
China Flashes Additional Signs of Reflation as Iran War Impact Emerges
China’s March CPI eased to 1.0% YoY, reflecting typical post‑Lunar price declines, while the PPI rebounded to 0.5% YoY – the first positive reading since September 2022. Energy‑related subcomponents, especially transportation fuel, surged sharply, with a 10% month‑on‑month jump, indicating...
EUR Money Markets: Stirred, Not Shaken
An oil‑price surge linked to the Iran conflict has pushed the European Central Bank out of its previously comfortable stance, reviving expectations of up to three rate hikes this year. Short‑end money‑market rates have fallen, yet no systemic stress is...
US Money Markets: Slow Calm to Steady State
The Iran conflict has pushed short‑term inflation expectations higher, leaving the 2‑year break‑even rate near 3.1% and raising the risk of actual inflation hitting 4%. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the policy rate steady for the next few...
GBP Money Markets: Liquidity Holding Amid Turmoil
Rising oil prices triggered by the Iran conflict have pushed up GBP money‑market curves, but the widening has been modest. The 3‑month spread between SONIA OIS and bank deposits rose only a few basis points and remains tighter than levels...
Industrial Data Shows German Economy Was Headed for Contraction Before Middle East War
German industrial production slipped 0.3% in February, ending a revised flat January and leaving year‑on‑year output unchanged. The decline was driven by weaker pharma and electronics output, while automotive rebounded and construction fell over 1% due to cold weather. Exports...
The Commodities Feed: Hormuz Remains Blocked for Now
Oil prices rebounded on Thursday, with ICE Brent climbing over 3% to trade above $97 per barrel as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains halted. U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 3.1 million barrels, the highest level since June...
NBP Preview: Rates on Hold, Rhetoric Turning Neutral/Hawkish
Poland’s Monetary Policy Council is expected to keep its main policy rate at 3.75% through the end of 2024 as global uncertainty and a lingering energy shock persist. Despite a weaker-than-expected pass‑through of oil price hikes to domestic fuel costs...
The US Tariff Shock in 2025 vs 2026 – Same Negative Impact, Different Drivers
New US tariffs implemented in 2025 raised the effective rate by 8.1 percentage points, leading to an estimated 4.2% drop in EU‑US exports after accounting for front‑running effects. While Irish pharmaceutical shipments temporarily boosted trade, the overall impact was a modest...
Webinar: Iran Ceasefire – What Next for Markets and the Economy?
A two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran sparked a sharp drop in oil prices and a rally in risk assets, as traders anticipate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The pause in hostilities is expected to ease...
FX Daily: Global FX Comes Back From the Brink
A two‑week cease‑fire between Iran and its adversaries has sparked a broad risk‑on rally, lifting equities, steepening yield curves and prompting a rebound in most currencies against the dollar. The U.S. dollar index, which rose about 3 % in March, slipped...
The Commodities Feed: Oil Slumps Below $100 After US, Iran Agree to Two-Week Ceasefire
Oil prices slipped below $100 per barrel after the United States and Iran announced a two‑week ceasefire, easing fears of prolonged supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent settled around $94/bbl and WTI near $96/bbl, marking the steepest decline...
Rates Spark: A Gift From Pakistan
A two‑week ceasefire proposal from Pakistan aims to defuse the escalating Iran‑US confrontation ahead of an 8 pm deadline that threatens a global recession. The article highlights rising inflation break‑even rates of 3‑5 % and a steepening Treasury curve, signaling heightened bond...
Little Evidence of Increase in USD Hedge Ratios
European investors have not increased their dollar hedges despite early‑year dollar weakness. Danish insurers and pension funds cut their FX hedge ratio to 70.3% in February, the lowest level since before April 2023. Private‑sector foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries has...
US Manufacturing Showing Greater Resilience
U.S. manufacturing showed unexpected strength in March as the ISM Manufacturing index rose to 52.7, the highest level since August 2022 and above consensus forecasts. Production accelerated to 55.1, buoyed by a solid backlog of new orders, while new‑order sentiment...