News•Feb 24, 2026
National Bank of Hungary Review: The Rate Cut Has Arrived, but What’s Next?
After 16 months of steady rates, the National Bank of Hungary cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% in February, aligning with broad market expectations. The central bank’s forward guidance remains data‑driven and open‑ended, prompting ING to anticipate a second 25‑bp reduction in March and a cumulative 50‑75 bp easing through 2026. Inflation is projected to fall to about 1.5% year‑on‑year, the lowest since 2019, while the upcoming April election introduces forint volatility risk that could temporarily halt the easing cycle. Analysts also note a flattening yield curve that may steepen if further cuts are confirmed.
By ING — THINK Economics
News•Feb 23, 2026
Dollar 2026 Decline: More Cyclical than Structural
The dollar’s recent slide is viewed as a cyclical correction rather than a structural collapse, with the real trade‑weighted index still well above its long‑term average. Hedging activity is rising, with buy‑side hedge ratios projected to reach roughly 74% by...
By ING — THINK Economics
News•Feb 20, 2026
Tariff Slapdown: What the Markets Say
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, sending U.S. equities up about 0.7% and lifting the 10‑year Treasury yield back to roughly 4.10%. The decision removes a source of tariff‑derived revenue, reviving fiscal‑deficit concerns and creating upside...
By ING — THINK Economics
News•Feb 20, 2026
FX Daily: EUR/USD Can Fall to 1.16 on Further Iran Escalation
Rising US‑Iran tensions are boosting the dollar as oil prices climb, reviving its safe‑haven appeal. The market now assigns a 60% probability to a US strike on Iran, which could lift Brent to $75‑76 and push EUR/USD down toward 1.16....
By ING — THINK Economics
News•Feb 19, 2026
Bank Indonesia Keeps Rates Steady, as Rupiah Weakness Threatens to Delay Easing
Bank Indonesia left its policy rate unchanged at 4.75% as the rupiah continued to weaken amid fiscal‑sustainability concerns and volatile investor sentiment. Moody’s downgraded Indonesia’s credit outlook to negative, reflecting uncertainty over policy direction and transparency. Real‑rate differentials with the...
By ING — THINK Economics
News•Feb 19, 2026
Philippines’ Central Bank Delivers Expected Rate Cut Paired with Uncertain Guidance
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas trimmed its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, matching market expectations. However, the central bank softened its forward guidance, dropping language that it was nearing the end of easing and emphasizing lingering confidence...
By ING — THINK Economics
News•Feb 18, 2026
Rates Spark: Pressures Rebuild for Long Dates
Equity volatility in the US is easing, opening the door for a near‑term rally in 10‑year euro swap rates that sit about 20 basis points below their January peak. Market participants expect a bear‑steepening move as the front end of...
By ING — THINK Economics
News•Feb 18, 2026
France’s Very Low Inflation Rate Is a Major Challenge for Public Finances
France’s inflation fell to 0.3% year‑on‑year in January, the lowest level since 2016 and well below the euro‑area average of 1.7%. The drop, driven by falling manufactured‑goods and energy prices, leaves core inflation at just 0.7% and fuels criticism that...
By ING — THINK Economics
News•Feb 18, 2026
Webinar: Why the Dollar’s 2026 Decline Will Be More Cyclical than Structural
Investors are questioning US asset allocations as the dollar begins 2026 on a weaker footing. A new ING webinar will examine whether the current sell‑off is driven by cyclical market dynamics rather than a deeper structural de‑dollarisation trend. Speakers will...
By ING — THINK Economics
News•Feb 16, 2026
EUREP Expansion and the Euro – Going Global
The European Central Bank announced that, from the third quarter of 2026, it will expand its EUREP euro repo facility to a global €50 billion line available to any central bank that meets AML and sanctions criteria. The repo offers euro...
By ING — THINK Economics
News•Feb 13, 2026
THINK Ahead: Green Shoots or Just Weeds? What This Week’s Data Signals
Economists spot early signs of recovery in the US labor market, with private payrolls accelerating, yet underlying job quality remains thin. The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver two 25‑basis‑point cuts, likely in June and September, as inflation stays modest....
By ING — THINK Economics
News•Feb 13, 2026
US Inflation Details Offer Room for Deeper Fed Rate Cuts
U.S. consumer price inflation in January eased to 0.2% month‑on‑month, with core CPI matching expectations at 0.3% and both headline and core year‑on‑year rates falling to four‑year lows of 2.4% and 2.5%. Goods prices excluding food and energy were flat,...
By ING — THINK Economics
News•Feb 13, 2026
Polish Disinflation Continues Despite Upside Surprise in January CPI
Poland’s January flash CPI showed headline inflation at 2.2% YoY, modestly above the 1.9% consensus but still under the NBP’s 2.5% ± 1‑point target. The decline was driven by a 7.1% drop in gasoline prices, while food prices held steady at 2.4%...
By ING — THINK Economics
News•Feb 13, 2026
US Dollar Credit Supply: Primary Market Shows Strong Start to 2026
US dollar primary market began 2026 with robust corporate issuance, totaling $56 bn in January, driven largely by technology, media and telecom (TMT) firms contributing $24 bn. Banks led the financial sector, printing $134 bn of senior non‑preferred bonds, a $20 bn year‑to‑date increase...
By ING — THINK Economics
News•Feb 13, 2026
We’re Trimming Our 2026 Romania Growth Forecast After a Bumpy End to 2025
Romania’s economy entered recession in early 2024 and posted a 1.9% quarterly contraction in Q4 2025, the steepest drop since 2012. Revised data also turned Q1 2025 growth negative, prompting analysts to slash the 2026 GDP outlook from 1.4% to 0.6%. The...
By ING — THINK Economics
News•Feb 13, 2026
Poland’s Economy Expanded by 4%YoY in the Final Quarter of 2025
Poland’s economy posted a 4.0% year‑on‑year increase in the fourth quarter of 2025, outpacing the 3.8% growth recorded in Q3. Quarterly expansion accelerated to 1.0% from 0.9% in the prior period, driven primarily by a surge in private consumption that...
By ING — THINK Economics
News•Feb 13, 2026
Turkey’s Current Account Deficit Remains on a Widening Track
Turkey posted a December current‑account deficit of $7.3 bn, well above the $5.3 bn forecast, pushing the 12‑month rolling deficit to $25.2 bn (about 1.8 % of GDP). The gap widened mainly because the trade balance slipped to a $‑7.4 bn deficit and primary‑income balances...
By ING — THINK Economics
News•Feb 13, 2026
Rates Spark: Dutch Pension Funds May Prepare Early for 2027 Transitions
Almost €1 trillion of Dutch pension assets are slated to transition by 2027, but early hedge rebalancing has already begun. Smaller funds moved interest‑rate hedges in December 2025, while larger players like PMT and PFZW are timing their flows for the first...
By ING — THINK Economics
News•Feb 13, 2026
Asia Week Ahead: Key Growth Data From Japan
Japan is set to publish key macro data next week, including Q4 2025 GDP, export figures, and inflation. Analysts forecast a modest 0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter GDP rebound after a 0.6% contraction, driven by recovering construction and strong semiconductor exports. Inflation is expected...
By ING — THINK Economics