The Commodities Feed: Record Oil Release Fails to Rein in Prices
The International Energy Agency announced a coordinated emergency release of up to 400 million barrels of crude oil, the largest ever, yet Brent futures surged to near $100 per barrel. Market analysts attribute the rally to ongoing disruptions in the Persian Gulf, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, which limit the immediate impact of the release. The United States will contribute 172 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserve over 120 days, a pace far below the current supply shortfall. Parallel pressures keep middle‑distillate and European gas markets firmly supported.
ECB Preview: Time for a Panic Room in the ECB’s ‘Good Place’
The European Central Bank heads into its March 18 meeting facing a sharp shift in the macro backdrop as the Middle East war drives oil prices higher, removing any realistic chance of further rate cuts. Instead of fine‑tuning inflation forecasts,...
Dutch Economy Enters Middle East Crisis From a Position of Strength
The Dutch economy posted stronger‑than‑expected Q4 2025 growth, buoyed by robust goods exports and solid government consumption, creating a positive carry‑over into 2026. Manufacturing output rose 0.4% in January and consumer sales improved despite muted retail sentiment. While the Middle‑East...
Copper Charts to Watch as Prices Slip Below $13,000/T
Copper prices have slipped below $13,000 per tonne as a stronger US dollar, rising energy costs and Middle‑East tensions dampen risk appetite. At the same time, visible inventories on the LME, SHFE and COMEX have surged by more than 500,000...
German Industrial Production Still Struggles to Gain Positive Momentum
German industrial production slipped 0.5% month‑on‑month in January, leaving output 1.2% lower than a year ago, with the metal and pharmaceuticals sectors bearing the brunt. New industrial orders collapsed by more than 10% MoM, reflecting a reversal of the bulk‑order...
Asia Week Ahead: Focus on Japan’s GDP Data and Key Inflation Release From China
Japan is set to revise its 2025 Q4 GDP upward to 0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter, driven by strong winter bonuses and a rebound in capital spending. In China, February CPI is expected to rise to 1.0% year‑on‑year, buoyed by Lunar New Year...
South Korean Inflation Holds Steady, but Upside Risks Are Increasing Sharply
South Korea's headline CPI held at 2.0% year‑on‑year in February, while core inflation rose to 2.3%. Fresh food and petroleum prices fell, but service costs increased, showing lingering price pressure. Higher global oil prices and a weakening won have sharpened...
US Activity Was Surging Ahead of Military Action
U.S. ISM surveys show the economy accelerating in early 2026, with the February services index climbing to 56.1 and overall business activity reaching 59.9, the strongest pace since May 2024. New orders and order backlogs also surged, supporting a projection...
Divergent Chinese PMIs Suggest Resilient External Demand, but Soft Domestic Environment
China's official manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.0 in February, matching a 33‑month low, while the private RatingDog index rose to 52.1, highlighting a split between domestic weakness and export‑driven resilience. Sub‑indices show production, new orders and employment contracting, even as...
Eurozone Inflation at Risk of Trending Higher over War in Middle East
Eurozone February inflation rose modestly, with headline rates climbing from 1.7 % to 1.9 % and core inflation edging up to 2.4 %. The increase occurred despite a smaller energy contribution, signalling persistent price pressures in services and goods. The ongoing Middle East...
February Brings Another Sharp Inflation Rise in Turkey
Turkey's annual inflation rose to 31.5% in February, driven primarily by a 2.96% month‑on‑month CPI increase. Food prices surged, with annual food inflation at 36.5%, while core inflation eased to 29.5%, its lowest since late 2021. Producer‑price inflation remained around...
National Bank of Poland Preview: Geopolitical Tension Makes a March Cut a Close Call
Poland’s central bank is poised to cut rates by 25 basis points in March, aligning with its recent dovish communication and a cooling inflation outlook. However, recent US‑Israeli strikes on Iran have raised oil prices, introducing upside risks to headline...
Asia’s Outlook Under Higher Oil Prices
Asia can currently absorb the recent oil‑price surge, but the region’s heavy reliance on imported energy makes it vulnerable if prices stay high. Japan and the Philippines source almost 90% of their oil from the Middle East, while China and...
Bank of Japan Won’t Alter Its Policy Normalisation Path
The Bank of Japan affirmed its commitment to a gradual policy normalisation path, emphasizing data‑driven decisions despite the appointment of two dovish board nominees. While the new members are expected to voice opposition to tightening, the overall board composition remains...
FX Daily: Nvidia Earnings Could Be Big for FX
Ahead of Nvidia's earnings, analysts warn that a miss could trigger broader risk aversion, hitting the most exposed G10 currencies such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Norwegian krone. The USD’s reaction will signal whether AI‑related concerns remain confined...
National Bank of Hungary Review: The Rate Cut Has Arrived, but What’s Next?
After 16 months of steady rates, the National Bank of Hungary cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% in February, aligning with broad market expectations. The central bank’s forward guidance remains data‑driven and open‑ended, prompting ING...
Dollar 2026 Decline: More Cyclical than Structural
The dollar’s recent slide is viewed as a cyclical correction rather than a structural collapse, with the real trade‑weighted index still well above its long‑term average. Hedging activity is rising, with buy‑side hedge ratios projected to reach roughly 74% by...
Tariff Slapdown: What the Markets Say
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, sending U.S. equities up about 0.7% and lifting the 10‑year Treasury yield back to roughly 4.10%. The decision removes a source of tariff‑derived revenue, reviving fiscal‑deficit concerns and creating upside...
FX Daily: EUR/USD Can Fall to 1.16 on Further Iran Escalation
Rising US‑Iran tensions are boosting the dollar as oil prices climb, reviving its safe‑haven appeal. The market now assigns a 60% probability to a US strike on Iran, which could lift Brent to $75‑76 and push EUR/USD down toward 1.16....
Bank Indonesia Keeps Rates Steady, as Rupiah Weakness Threatens to Delay Easing
Bank Indonesia left its policy rate unchanged at 4.75% as the rupiah continued to weaken amid fiscal‑sustainability concerns and volatile investor sentiment. Moody’s downgraded Indonesia’s credit outlook to negative, reflecting uncertainty over policy direction and transparency. Real‑rate differentials with the...
Philippines’ Central Bank Delivers Expected Rate Cut Paired with Uncertain Guidance
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas trimmed its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, matching market expectations. However, the central bank softened its forward guidance, dropping language that it was nearing the end of easing and emphasizing lingering confidence...
Rates Spark: Pressures Rebuild for Long Dates
Equity volatility in the US is easing, opening the door for a near‑term rally in 10‑year euro swap rates that sit about 20 basis points below their January peak. Market participants expect a bear‑steepening move as the front end of...
France’s Very Low Inflation Rate Is a Major Challenge for Public Finances
France’s inflation fell to 0.3% year‑on‑year in January, the lowest level since 2016 and well below the euro‑area average of 1.7%. The drop, driven by falling manufactured‑goods and energy prices, leaves core inflation at just 0.7% and fuels criticism that...
Webinar: Why the Dollar’s 2026 Decline Will Be More Cyclical than Structural
Investors are questioning US asset allocations as the dollar begins 2026 on a weaker footing. A new ING webinar will examine whether the current sell‑off is driven by cyclical market dynamics rather than a deeper structural de‑dollarisation trend. Speakers will...
EUREP Expansion and the Euro – Going Global
The European Central Bank announced that, from the third quarter of 2026, it will expand its EUREP euro repo facility to a global €50 billion line available to any central bank that meets AML and sanctions criteria. The repo offers euro...
THINK Ahead: Green Shoots or Just Weeds? What This Week’s Data Signals
Economists spot early signs of recovery in the US labor market, with private payrolls accelerating, yet underlying job quality remains thin. The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver two 25‑basis‑point cuts, likely in June and September, as inflation stays modest....
US Inflation Details Offer Room for Deeper Fed Rate Cuts
U.S. consumer price inflation in January eased to 0.2% month‑on‑month, with core CPI matching expectations at 0.3% and both headline and core year‑on‑year rates falling to four‑year lows of 2.4% and 2.5%. Goods prices excluding food and energy were flat,...
Polish Disinflation Continues Despite Upside Surprise in January CPI
Poland’s January flash CPI showed headline inflation at 2.2% YoY, modestly above the 1.9% consensus but still under the NBP’s 2.5% ± 1‑point target. The decline was driven by a 7.1% drop in gasoline prices, while food prices held steady at 2.4%...
US Dollar Credit Supply: Primary Market Shows Strong Start to 2026
US dollar primary market began 2026 with robust corporate issuance, totaling $56 bn in January, driven largely by technology, media and telecom (TMT) firms contributing $24 bn. Banks led the financial sector, printing $134 bn of senior non‑preferred bonds, a $20 bn year‑to‑date increase...
We’re Trimming Our 2026 Romania Growth Forecast After a Bumpy End to 2025
Romania’s economy entered recession in early 2024 and posted a 1.9% quarterly contraction in Q4 2025, the steepest drop since 2012. Revised data also turned Q1 2025 growth negative, prompting analysts to slash the 2026 GDP outlook from 1.4% to 0.6%. The...
Poland’s Economy Expanded by 4%YoY in the Final Quarter of 2025
Poland’s economy posted a 4.0% year‑on‑year increase in the fourth quarter of 2025, outpacing the 3.8% growth recorded in Q3. Quarterly expansion accelerated to 1.0% from 0.9% in the prior period, driven primarily by a surge in private consumption that...
Turkey’s Current Account Deficit Remains on a Widening Track
Turkey posted a December current‑account deficit of $7.3 bn, well above the $5.3 bn forecast, pushing the 12‑month rolling deficit to $25.2 bn (about 1.8 % of GDP). The gap widened mainly because the trade balance slipped to a $‑7.4 bn deficit and primary‑income balances...
Rates Spark: Dutch Pension Funds May Prepare Early for 2027 Transitions
Almost €1 trillion of Dutch pension assets are slated to transition by 2027, but early hedge rebalancing has already begun. Smaller funds moved interest‑rate hedges in December 2025, while larger players like PMT and PFZW are timing their flows for the first...
Asia Week Ahead: Key Growth Data From Japan
Japan is set to publish key macro data next week, including Q4 2025 GDP, export figures, and inflation. Analysts forecast a modest 0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter GDP rebound after a 0.6% contraction, driven by recovering construction and strong semiconductor exports. Inflation is expected...