The Hormuz Crisis and the Fate of the Global South
The sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted roughly a quarter of global oil, a fifth of LNG and a third of fertilizer shipments, prompting the IMF to label the disruption a “global yet asymmetric” shock. Import‑dependent economies in Asia, Africa and parts of Europe are seeing higher bond spreads and credit downgrades as fuel and food prices surge. Countries that have already built renewable or biofuel capacity—Spain, Brazil and China—are experiencing far smaller electricity and gasoline price spikes. The episode is prompting calls for windfall‑profit taxes and sovereign‑wealth fund allocations to protect consumers and fund green transitions.
How Trump’s Crypto Push Is Undermining American Power
President Donald Trump’s administration has rolled back key cryptocurrency regulations, effectively opening U.S. markets to unfiltered crypto activity. The policy shift removes many anti‑money‑laundering and know‑your‑customer safeguards, prompting a surge in domestic crypto trading. At the same time, state‑backed actors...
Will the IMF Ever Learn?
The International Monetary Fund is under intense scrutiny as its Spring Meetings coincide with a decennial Review of program design. Critics argue the IMF continues to impose austerity and regressive tax measures despite internal research showing these policies harm growth...
To Work for Us, AI Must Not Think for Us
The article argues that the most profound threat of artificial intelligence is not job loss but the erosion of human thought and the knowledge‑creation processes that underpin AI models. While public debate fixates on automation displacing workers, Rodrik warns that...
Hedging Security in the Gulf Is Risky
The Gulf states have long pursued a hedging strategy, balancing ties with the United States against the threat posed by Iran. Recent uncertainty over a potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire highlights the fragility of that approach, exposing the region to heightened security...
The Iran War Has Ended a Year of Economic Promise
Before President Donald Trump launched his war on Iran, global financial markets were on an upswing and private‑sector confidence was rebounding, according to the Brookings‑FT TIGER index. The index highlighted solid growth prospects despite lingering trade‑policy volatility and high public...
Africa Is Losing the Iran War
The Iran‑related war in the Middle East is triggering a cascade of economic shocks across Africa. Fuel prices have jumped about 50% and global fertilizer costs are up more than 40%, straining household budgets and agricultural yields. Simultaneously, African governments...
How to Understand Emerging Risks
The article argues that the risk landscape is evolving faster than insurers’ traditional models can keep pace. While centuries of actuarial data have underpinned pricing, new hazards such as climate extremes, cyber attacks and pandemics demand fresh assumptions. Insurers must...
The Iran War’s Winners and Losers
A two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been brokered, allowing analysts to gauge early outcomes of the conflict. The article argues that China and Russia emerged as clear winners, leveraging diplomatic and economic footholds, while Gulf Arab...
America’s War Is Adding to Africa’s Debt Burden
The US‑Israeli war in Iran has pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, adding roughly $4.4 billion to Africa’s annual debt burden. With $149 billion of Eurobonds outstanding, the continent now faces $900 million to $1.2 billion of extra fiscal pressure each year. The increase stems...
The Decline and Fall of the Dollar Empire
Barry Eichengreen argues that the United States is losing its status as the world’s primary currency issuer, likening today’s dollar decline to the fall of Rome’s denarius. He points to chronic economic stagnation, a debt load surpassing $31 trillion, and costly...
Iran’s Strategic Victory
The United States has agreed to a two‑week cease‑fire with Iran, effectively pausing the ongoing US‑Israeli conflict. Analysts describe the truce as a strategic win for Tehran, highlighting the limits of conventional power in asymmetric warfare. The cease‑fire underscores Israel’s...
How Bad Will the Economy Be?
The U.S. economy has shown unexpected resilience, even after Donald Trump’s return to the White House. However, analysts warn that a potential war with Iran and a wave of deregulation are creating systemic risks. The uncertainty is so high that...
The Big Picture
The United States is sending mixed economic signals: a stronger‑than‑expected jobs report suggests labor market resilience, while the Treasury Department has declared the nation fiscally insolvent. Global trade appears robust, yet investors are fleeing private‑credit funds amid fears of deteriorating...
The Fall of Gazprom
Polish oil refiner Orlen overtook Russia's state‑owned gas giant Gazprom in market capitalization for the first time in March 2026. The shift reflects sustained Western sanctions, a sharp decline in European gas demand, and Orlen’s aggressive diversification into petrochemicals and...
