The Decline and Fall of the Dollar Empire
Barry Eichengreen argues that the United States is losing its status as the world’s primary currency issuer, likening today’s dollar decline to the fall of Rome’s denarius. He points to chronic economic stagnation, a debt load surpassing $31 trillion, and costly foreign adventures such as the 1956 Suez crisis. By comparing the dollar’s trajectory with the British pound’s earlier loss of dominance, the piece highlights a broader shift in reserve‑currency dynamics. The article warns that the dollar’s grip on global trade and finance is eroding faster than many expect.
Iran’s Strategic Victory
The United States has agreed to a two‑week cease‑fire with Iran, effectively pausing the ongoing US‑Israeli conflict. Analysts describe the truce as a strategic win for Tehran, highlighting the limits of conventional power in asymmetric warfare. The cease‑fire underscores Israel’s...
How Bad Will the Economy Be?
The U.S. economy has shown unexpected resilience, even after Donald Trump’s return to the White House. However, analysts warn that a potential war with Iran and a wave of deregulation are creating systemic risks. The uncertainty is so high that...
The Big Picture
The United States is sending mixed economic signals: a stronger‑than‑expected jobs report suggests labor market resilience, while the Treasury Department has declared the nation fiscally insolvent. Global trade appears robust, yet investors are fleeing private‑credit funds amid fears of deteriorating...
The Fall of Gazprom
Polish oil refiner Orlen overtook Russia's state‑owned gas giant Gazprom in market capitalization for the first time in March 2026. The shift reflects sustained Western sanctions, a sharp decline in European gas demand, and Orlen’s aggressive diversification into petrochemicals and...
The IMF’s Spring Meetings Must Deliver Three Reforms
Kenya announced it will not seek IMF financing for the current fiscal year, raising roughly $4.5 billion through a pipeline IPO, Safaricom stake sale and Eurobond issuance—about five times the Fund’s typical offer. The move spotlights the structural imbalance in the...
China Is Having a Good War—So Far
China is weathering the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran better than most of its neighbors, keeping its oil imports stable while cautiously probing profit opportunities. Beijing is monitoring strategic missteps by other powers and positioning itself to secure discounted energy deals....
The Real Question About the AI Future
The authors argue that 21st‑century U.S. dominance will hinge on control of essential AI infrastructure rather than traditional manufacturing or military strength. They highlight a looming challenge: determining how societies will pay for access to these AI capabilities. By reframing...
The Coming Inflation-Deflation Whipsaw
Dambisa Moyo warns that the global economy is entering a rare inflation‑deflation whipsaw. In the short term, geopolitical tensions and lingering supply‑chain shocks are pushing consumer prices higher. Over the longer horizon, rapid advances in artificial intelligence are expected to...
The Road to De-Escalation With Iran
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is driving sharp increases in oil, liquefied natural gas, fertilizer and LPG prices worldwide. These spikes are inflating costs for cash‑strapped governments and jeopardizing food security in key agricultural regions. Analysts argue that...
Israel’s Buffer-Zone Fallacy
The article argues that protective buffer zones are obsolete in an era of precision missiles, drones, and long‑range projectiles. It cites Israel’s justification for occupying southern Lebanon as a prime example of a flawed buffer‑zone rationale. The piece also references...
How Women Succeed in Male-Dominated Fields
Recent empirical research indicates that women thrive in traditionally male‑dominated fields when they have female peers and professors, without diminishing men’s outcomes. The study, highlighted by Fernanda Estevan and Bruna Borges, counters cultural backlash that frames women’s workplace gains as...
The Real AI Race
The article argues that while the United States and China dominate AI research and model development, the true economic impact of artificial intelligence will be determined by how broadly it is adopted across industries and regions. It likens AI to...
Is Economic Forecasting Still Possible?
The sudden outbreak of war in Iran has dramatically disrupted global oil supply routes, causing a sharp surge in oil prices. This shock has forced central banks, finance ministries, and forecasters to confront an unprecedented macroeconomic environment. Traditional forecasting models,...
Can India Become the World’s Innovation Capital?
India is shedding its image as a low‑cost back‑office and emerging as a leading global hub for invention and product development. Driven by a deep engineering talent pool, accelerated AI adoption, and recent policy reforms, the country is attracting multinational...
A Bad Deal Today Means a Bigger War Tomorrow
The article warns that pushing for immediate negotiations to end the Iran‑related conflict would be dangerously premature. It argues that Iran’s deep‑seated mistrust, rooted in the 1979 revolution, makes a rushed settlement unlikely to hold. Premature talks could embolden hard‑liners...
America’s Currency Is the Global South’s Problem
The article argues that although the U.S. dollar’s share of global foreign reserves has been slipping since its 2001 peak, the decline is incremental, ensuring the greenback’s dominance for the foreseeable future. Nations in the Global South cannot simply wait...
Bombing for Freedom
The article argues that strategic bombing of civilians to force regime change has consistently failed and is unlikely to succeed in Iran. It critiques the belief held by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—and, to a lesser extent, former U.S. President...
The Mispricing of War
A US‑Israeli campaign against Iran is exposing how war is heavily subsidized worldwide. The piece argues that initiators rarely shoulder the full price, with costs spilling across borders, markets, and time. Recent throttling of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz...
Iran on the Edge of Breakdown
The United States and Israel have launched a coordinated air campaign against Iran, striking major cities, military sites, and critical infrastructure. The sustained attacks have crippled Iran's legal enforcement mechanisms, leaving the regime without functional judicial control. President Donald Trump...
Why Iran Is Beating America
Iran has effectively shattered the United States’ long‑standing "asymmetric cost" doctrine, which assumes that any war the US initiates will ultimately burden its adversary more heavily. President Donald Trump’s recent claim that the US war against Iran is a success...
Is Financial Deregulation Under Trump Going Too Far?
The Trump administration is accelerating financial deregulation by slashing staff at major supervisory agencies and lowering banks' capital buffers. These moves reverse many post‑2008 safeguards designed to curb excessive risk‑taking. While the intent is to boost credit availability, analysts warn...
The Energy Transition Has Its Own Strait of Hormuz
The clean‑energy transition is reshaping global energy chokepoints, moving vulnerability from oil‑laden sea lanes to the supply chains of critical minerals. Recent crises, such as the Iran war, have highlighted how dependent nations are on these new bottlenecks in refining,...
The Economic Impact of Mexico’s Autocratic Drift
Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum suffered a rare legislative defeat in March, signaling waning support for her administration’s agenda. For a decade the country has enjoyed macro‑stable inflation, modest fiscal deficits and calm financial markets despite an ongoing centralization of power....
Big Tech Shouldn’t Be Writing the Rules for AI
Anthropic’s public clash with the Trump administration has highlighted a widening gap in AI governance, where private firms are stepping into roles traditionally held by governments. The dispute underscores how U.S. policymakers have largely ceded oversight to corporate actors, leaving...
Telling the Truth About China’s Success
Yanis Varoufakis warns that the flare‑up in the Persian Gulf heightens the risk of a broader US‑China confrontation, making de‑escalation the top global priority. He argues that a pervasive myth—that China has cheated its way to prosperity—fuels mistrust and makes...
Why Europe Is Unlikely to Face an Inflation Surge
The European Central Bank (ECB) missed early warning signs of inflation in 2021‑22, prompting a delayed and aggressive tightening cycle. A new energy-price shock triggered by the Iran war has revived concerns, but the ECB now signals a faster, more...
Can China Grow From Within?
China’s new 2026‑30 Five‑Year Plan pivots the economy toward a consumption‑led growth model, seeking to anchor expansion domestically amid rising geopolitical volatility. The strategy emphasizes expanding household demand and deepening capital‑market development to reduce reliance on external markets. While Chinese...
Will Kharg Island Decide the Future of US Alliances?
The United States' war with Israel against Iran has spotlighted a growing reluctance among its partners to automatically follow American directives. The focal point is Iran's Kharg Island energy‑export terminal, where the U.S. can likely seize or disable the facility,...
Why America, Not Iran, Has a Succession Problem
The United States has begun employing decapitation strikes against Iran, targeting senior political and military figures. Such tactics rest on the assumption that removing a leader will collapse the regime, a premise rooted in personalistic governance. The article argues that...
Cuba in Free Fall
Cuba’s economy is spiraling into a crisis deeper than the post‑Soviet collapse of the 1990s. Within weeks, the island lost its external energy imports and its primary sources of foreign earnings, including tourism and sugar exports. Manufacturing and other key...
Wars Fought for Fun Cannot Be Won
The opinion piece argues that President Donald Trump’s decision to launch a war against Iran is driven by personal whim rather than any coherent policy rationale. It claims the conflict is motivated by a desire for domination and cannot be...
Nuclear Deterrence Is No Longer Enough
The article argues that nuclear deterrence alone can no longer prevent modern wars, as conflicts increasingly intertwine and stay below the nuclear threshold. Since 1945, nuclear weapons have kept great‑power conquest at bay, forcing rivals into proxy and limited engagements....
Remaking Europe’s Energy System for the Age of AI
Europe’s energy system is deemed strategically vulnerable after the US‑Israeli war on Iran highlighted dependence on imported fossil fuels. The article argues that weakening the EU Emissions Trading System would not solve the deeper issue: a grid incompatible with 21st‑century...
Why Iran’s Escalation Strategy Is Likely to Backfire
Iran is using an escalation strategy in its conflict with the United States and Israel to showcase regime resilience and raise the perceived cost of war for its adversaries. By widening the fighting and threatening the Gulf states’ oil‑dependent economies,...
Taking the Battle for Human Attention Seriously
A US jury has held Meta and YouTube liable for deliberately addicting young users, marking the first major legal finding that platforms can be responsible for harming mental health. The verdict frames human attention as a finite, collective infrastructure rather...
Iran’s Water Weapon Against the Gulf
The Gulf states rely on desalination for the vast majority of their drinking water, producing roughly 40% of the world’s desalinated supply. Amid the US‑Israel conflict with Iran, Tehran has warned it will strike regional water‑treatment facilities if the United...
The Only Boots on the Ground in Iran Should Be IAEA Inspectors
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) remains the sole legally authorized body to account for and monitor Iran’s nuclear stockpile under the Non‑Proliferation Treaty. Recent commentary warns that the ongoing US‑Israeli confrontation with Iran is already unsettling global markets and...
The Global Economy’s Many Chokepoints
The article warns that the global economy’s drive for efficiency has created fragile single points of failure, exemplified by Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly one‑fifth of world oil and a quarter of fertilizer. This...
The Rise of the Chinese Platform State
China’s recent Two Sessions underscored technology as the cornerstone of its economic strategy, signaling a shift from a purely top‑down innovation model to a “platform state” approach. In this model, the government acts like a digital platform, shaping market rules...
Interdependence Bites Back
The Iranian drone strike on March 11, 2026 ignited a massive fire at Oman’s Salalah oil storage facility, curtailing regional oil output. The disruption sent Brent crude above $90 per barrel, prompting immediate price spikes across global markets. Analysts now see the...
The Mother of Forever Defeats
President Donald Trump signed a National Security Strategy in November 2025 that emphasized a clear preference for non‑intervention in other nations’ affairs. Within three months, his administration announced a military campaign against Iran, contradicting the NSS’s stated doctrine. The abrupt...
Trump’s Tariff War Has Failed on Every Front
President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff regime, launched over the past 14 months, has failed to meet its stated goals of boosting U.S. manufacturing and reshaping global trade. Instead, the duties have increased import prices, prompted retaliatory measures from key trading...
How Much AI-Driven Productivity Growth Do We Want?
The article examines the surge in AI‑driven productivity since ChatGPT’s 2022 debut and asks how much growth societies should pursue. It highlights the dual nature of AI gains—higher incomes and living standards alongside potential economic shocks. The author argues that...
What’s Next for Cuba?
The Trump administration has imposed a de facto blockade on Cuba’s fuel imports, plunging the island into a deep economic and humanitarian crisis. President Donald Trump repeatedly declares the Cuban regime’s “imminent demise” yet offers no concrete roadmap for post‑regime governance....
Where Have All the Allies Gone?
President Donald Trump, asserting Iran’s military is gone, asked Britain, France, Japan, South Korea and even China to dispatch minesweepers to clear the Strait of Hormuz. When the allies declined, he warned NATO of a “very bad” future if it...
The Wrong Choice in Cuba
US President Donald Trump has revived a covert “decapitation” strategy aimed at toppling Cuba’s communist leadership, echoing the CIA’s 1960s assassination plots against Fidel Castro. The plan focuses on removing President Miguel Díaz‑Canel rather than broader reforms. Analysts note that...
Donald Trump’s Suez Moment
Donald Trump has framed a planned strike on Iran as an “excursion,” drawing a stark comparison to the 1956 Suez Crisis where Britain and France suffered a costly defeat. The article argues that the unilateral move risks a similar diplomatic...
US-Style Health Care Is Wrong for the UK
A recent BBC and New Statesman investigation uncovered preventable infant deaths at University Hospitals Sussex NHS Foundation Trust, highlighting a deepening maternal‑health crisis in the United Kingdom. Over the past 15 years, maternal mortality rates have risen steadily, exposing gaps in NHS...
America’s War, America’s Recession
The United States’ decision to go to war in Iran is poised to unleash a sharp energy and food‑price shock, compounding existing inflationary pressures. Disruptions to Middle‑East oil flows could lift gasoline and heating costs, while import‑tariff policies already stoke...
