US Institutional Decay Is Threatening Global Finance
The United States has long been the cornerstone of global finance, thanks to the perceived independence of the Federal Reserve, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Federal Trade Commission. Recent trends suggest that this institutional independence is eroding, with political pressures and regulatory capture undermining consistent rule enforcement. The article warns that the loss of clear, impersonal governance could destabilize markets worldwide. Analysts see this shift as a warning sign for investors and policymakers alike.
A Golden Opportunity for a Beleaguered WTO
The World Trade Organization’s 14th Ministerial Conference in Yaoundé, Cameroon, is poised to adopt the Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement (IFDA) into its rulebook. IFDA seeks to streamline investment processes and improve access to capital for developing economies. The move...
What Is America’s Goal in Cuba?
The article argues that while global attention remains on the US‑Israeli conflict with Iran, a growing focus in Washington is the potential collapse of Cuba's communist regime. Analysts claim the island’s economic reforms and rising private sector activity suggest a...
What Trump Gets Wrong About the Cultural Logic Driving Iran
President Donald Trump’s Iran strategy relies on sanctions, isolation and airstrikes, assuming material pressure will force Tehran to concede. The approach ignores Iran’s cultural emphasis on honor and reputation, which historically fuels defiant behavior when national dignity is challenged. By...
Russia Is the Biggest Winner of the Iran War
The United States’ decision to engage militarily with Iran has sparked a sharp rise in global oil prices. Analysts argue that the price surge disproportionately benefits Russia, whose economy relies heavily on hydrocarbon exports. The influx of revenue bolsters Moscow’s...
A New Opening for WTO Reform
World Trade Organization members concur that structural reform is essential, yet they disagree on its shape. The 166‑nation bloc remains hamstrung by a unanimity‑required consensus rule, limiting its ability to adapt. Authors propose that trade ministers at the WTO’s 14th...
The Gulf Is Becoming Uninsurable
The Gulf’s long‑standing reputation for safety is eroding as the US‑Israeli war with Iran reshapes risk calculations. Iran’s strategy of pressuring the United States has exposed the region’s vulnerability, prompting insurers to question coverage viability. With insurers pulling back, insurance...
Iran Is Sanctioning America
Iran has begun throttling oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz from pro‑U.S. Gulf states while continuing to export its own crude to China, effectively imposing de‑facto sanctions on the United States. The maneuver reduces the volume of oil that...
Selective Outrage Won’t End the Iran War
The UN Security Council issued a resolution condemning Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, labeling them a breach of international law. The article argues the vote is one‑sided, focusing on protecting Gulf oil flows and...
The Real Fallout From Trump’s Tariffs
In 2025 the United States imposed sweeping import tariffs intended to shield domestic producers. The measures inadvertently lowered costs for foreign rivals, creating a mixed‑bag of winners and losers among U.S. firms. Small businesses, often highlighted in political rhetoric, bore...
Trump Is Burying His Own Security Strategy
President Donald Trump has plunged the United States into a new, rapidly expanding Middle East war, a move that diverges sharply from the objectives outlined in his three‑month‑old National Security Strategy. The conflict’s goals are shifting daily, creating a chaotic...
What the Iran Crisis Means for Middle Powers
The article argues that the escalating violence in Iran signals a broader erosion of the post‑Cold War international order. It calls on middle‑power nations to unite behind a rules‑based system anchored in democratic norms, rather than accepting a world driven...
Will AGI Really Be the “Last Invention”?
Silicon Valley often cites I.J. Good’s 1960s “ultraintelligent machine” scenario, claiming that achieving artificial general intelligence would be humanity’s final invention. The article argues that this premise rests on shaky assumptions, including limitless computational capacity and seamless alignment of machine...
Building the Energy Resilience ASEAN+3 Needs
Energy systems across ASEAN+3 are facing mounting pressure from climate‑related shocks, surging electricity demand driven by AI and digital infrastructure, and heightened geopolitical volatility. The region’s leaders view resilience not merely as an energy‑policy goal but as a macro‑economic necessity....
Reimagining Gulf Security
The recent Iran war has exposed the shortcomings of the Gulf’s long‑standing “protection for sale” model, where security is bought through U.S. arms deals and basing rights. Authors argue that reliance on conditional American guarantees is unsustainable. They propose that...
Why the Digital Euro Needs Worker Input
The European Central Bank’s digital euro proposal aims to cement Europe’s digital sovereignty and foster fair competition ahead of a potential 2029 launch. Advocates argue that the CBDC must be sovereign, public, and inclusive to win trust from citizens and...
Trump Is Spending Tomorrow’s Security Today
Donald Trump has launched a war despite clear warnings that critical weapon stockpiles are dangerously low, reflecting a broader pattern of consuming present resources at the expense of future capacity. Throughout his presidency, fiscal policy, science funding, and alliance management...
Who’s Whispering in Your Chatbot’s Ear?
Liberal democracies are increasingly ceding control of AI infrastructure to a handful of private firms, creating a centralized, unaccountable power base. The article argues that algorithmic systems are inherently value‑laden, yet regulators have failed to demand transparency or oversight. This...
The Feasibility Trap
The article argues that the US‑Israeli war with Iran is being shaped more by what technology permits than by strategic objectives, a phenomenon the author labels feasibility bias. It notes that military leaders are increasingly choosing actions simply because they...
Winners and Losers in the AI Workplace
AI laboratories are rapidly releasing new models and workplace‑focused tools, positioning artificial intelligence as a catalyst for productivity gains across the economy. The launch of Anthropic’s Claude Cowork plug‑ins sparked a sharp sell‑off in software equities, signaling that investors anticipate sizable...
Lonely Empire
The article warns that the Trump administration has revived overt American imperialism, sparking an active war with Iran and turning Venezuela into a U.S.-controlled satrapy. It claims the United States is pursuing territorial grabs, including Greenland, while seeking to expel...
PS Quarterly Interview: Desmond Lachman
In a recent Project Syndicate interview, economist Desmond Lachman warns that President Donald Trump’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy could revive bond‑market vigilantes and destabilize the U.S. Treasury market. He argues that such stress may puncture the soaring AI‑related equity rally and...
Global Markets Are A-Changin’
Dambisa Moyo outlines three major trends reshaping the global investment landscape, pushing a risk‑on mindset in the short term. These forces are expected to lift risk assets while simultaneously threatening the traditional functioning of capital markets. The article cautions that...
Is the Stablecoin Economy Structurally Sound?
The piece argues that stablecoins and tokenized assets are evolving into systemically important financial instruments, effectively turning blockchain platforms into critical infrastructure. It likens the potential fragility of this digital layer to historic bridge failures, emphasizing the need for engineering‑level...
Mobilizing Africa’s Capital for African Development
Africa faces a $2.8 trillion financing gap for climate action by 2030, yet ample capital exists within the continent’s savings pools and sovereign wealth funds, plus global yield‑seeking investors. The article argues that fragmented markets prevent this capital from reaching needed...
India Can Avoid the Middle-Income Trap
Prime Minister Narendra Modi aims to elevate India to a fully developed economy by August 15, 2047, marking the nation’s centennial of independence. Over the past twenty years, India has posted strong GDP growth, while recent years have seen an unprecedented surge...
The Gulf’s Tough Choices
The United States and Israel have entered a war with Iran that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) spent years trying to avoid through diplomacy. Daily attacks are now targeting civilian infrastructure across the Gulf’s six member states, exposing a growing...
The Spheres-of-Influence Illusion
For the first time since World War II, the United States, China and Russia are coalescing around an authoritarian notion of sovereignty that privileges raw power over international law. This emerging bloc coincides with a surge in U.S. military activity under...
How to Electrify the Global South
India has nearly achieved universal household electrification, cutting the global electricity deficit by half, while Nigeria is poised to replicate this progress. Both countries are integrating centralized grids with distributed mini‑grids, leveraging AI‑driven digital twins and large‑scale rooftop solar schemes....
The Iran War’s Muddled Endgame
President Donald Trump has offered no clear objectives for the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, preferring to limit energy shocks and avoid a drawn‑out conflict. Israel, however, continues to pursue an aggressive stance, while Tehran views the fighting as an existential...
Infrastructure Investment Is the Key to China’s Growth
China's government set a 2026 growth target of 4.5‑5% after meeting its 2025 goal of 5%. 2025 GDP reached CN¥140.19 trillion ($20.4 trillion), with consumption contributing 52%, investment 15.3%, and exports 32.7% of growth. The economy faces geopolitical tensions and a US‑led...
The Growing Cyber Risk to Supply Chains
Corporate leaders are shifting view of cybersecurity from an internal IT issue to an operational capability essential for supply‑chain continuity. AI and automation have expanded the digital footprint of vendors, increasing exposure to cyber threats. Simultaneously, the intensifying Middle East...
How Will This Energy Shock Play Out?
The recent US‑Israeli war against Iran has ignited a fresh energy shock, pushing crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and tightening natural‑gas markets. Jim O’Neill draws parallels with the 1979‑1982 oil crisis, warning that producers cannot rely on sustained...
Trump Is Showing China How to Seize Taiwan
President Donald Trump has intensified U.S. military actions worldwide, from Caribbean drug‑boat strikes to a large‑scale assault on Iran that he claims destroyed its nuclear facilities. His administration has also tightened pressure on Cuba, kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and pursued...
The Wisdom of Europe’s “Great Capitulation”
The European Union accepted an asymmetrical trade deal with the United States, lowering its residual tariffs while the US maintains high reciprocal tariffs. The arrangement prevents a retaliatory trade war and keeps European import costs modest. Analysts argue the deal...
The Middle-Power Moment?
Middle powers are confronting a narrowing window to protect their interests as the United States loses its stature as a guarantor of collective security and China expands its economic and political reach. Russia’s disruptive actions further destabilize the international system,...
Are We Facing an AI Nightmare?
AI‑doom narratives have surged, amplified by Citrini’s forecast that AI could eliminate most white‑collar jobs by 2028, prompting market volatility. Raghuram Rajan argues that historical adoption frictions suggest a slower, more nuanced rollout. He identifies a policy vacuum around large‑scale,...
Albert Hirschman Strikes Back
Albert O. Hirschman's 1945 work *National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade* was largely ignored when published, but its analysis of how states engineer trade for strategic advantage is resurfacing amid today’s intensifying geoeconomic conflict. The book argued that...
India’s Promising New Counter-Terrorism Strategy
India's Ministry of Home Affairs released its first National Counter‑Terrorism Policy and Strategy, dubbed PRAHAAR, in February 2026. The eight‑page doctrine replaces a reactive, fragmented approach with a holistic, coordinated framework for the nation’s security agencies. It outlines unified command...
A Deal With Iran Requires an Iran that Can Make One
The Trump administration’s foreign‑policy playbook, dubbed “decapitate and delegate,” seeks to remove an obstinate leader, cripple the regime with strikes and sanctions, then force a pliant successor into a transactional deal. It succeeded in Venezuela because the state held together...
China’s Big Bet on Central Asia Is Paying Off
China’s investment strategy in Central Asia is moving beyond the debt‑trap stereotype, emphasizing joint ventures and infrastructure that fuel industrial growth. In 2025, Chinese foreign direct investment rose roughly 15% year‑on‑year, with Kazakhstan alone attracting about $12 billion in energy projects....
Europe’s “Limited Responsibility” Model Must Go
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that Europe’s “limited responsibility” fiscal framework must be abandoned to protect prosperity and sovereignty. She made the remarks at an informal European Council meeting and the Munich Security Conference, calling for deeper fiscal...
Can the US Afford Trump’s Iran War?
President Donald Trump has launched a direct military campaign against Iran despite a domestic economy plagued by rising unemployment and stubborn inflation. The article argues that the conflict will further erode public finances, adding new pressure on the federal budget....
Hungary and the Future of the EU
Hungary’s September 2026 parliamentary election will test the European Union’s ability to maintain democratic standards while confronting a volatile security environment. Viktor Orbán’s 16‑year illiberal tenure has strained EU consensus on defense and foreign policy, especially as the bloc faces...
Kevin Warsh Is in for a Rude Awakening
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and Donald Trump’s pick, has been nominated to chair the Federal Reserve. Warsh is known for advocating aggressive rate cuts and a loose monetary stance that many analysts deem risky in the current inflationary...
What Makes America Strong?
In 2025 the United States recorded a negative net migration rate as legal immigration was sharply curtailed, a trend that economists warn will dampen economic growth. President Donald Trump has framed this demographic shift as part of a broader “Golden...
Trump’s Unaffordable Midterm Stimulus
The Congressional Budget Office released a stark outlook showing U.S. deficits expanding by nearly $1.5 trillion and the debt‑to‑GDP ratio surpassing 115 percent. President Donald Trump is proposing a fresh stimulus package—accelerated infrastructure grants, tax rebates, and expanded credit for small firms—designed...
What Will the Fed’s “Warsh Era” Bring?
Kevin Warsh’s nomination to replace Jerome Powell places a deeply divided Federal Reserve at a crossroads. Warsh argues the institution needs a revamped analytical framework and a “balance‑sheet theory” rather than a singular focus on rate cuts. He suggests structural...
The Perils of Premature Automation
Developing nations are cautioned against rushing AI automation, as integrating advanced technologies into outdated, fragmented bureaucracies can erase middle‑skill jobs without spurring growth. The article argues that the prevailing "move fast or fall behind" mantra overlooks systemic readiness and may...
Housing Has a Data Problem
The article highlights a critical data gap in global housing, where fragmented tracking tools leave policymakers unable to gauge program effectiveness. United Nations estimates reveal 2.8 billion people lack adequate housing and 318 million are homeless, underscoring the scale of the crisis....
