Myanmar Is Not ‘in Transition’: War by Other Means and the Risks of Policy Drift
A new International Institute for Strategic Studies paper downplays Myanmar’s resistance, treating the junta’s recent elections as a potential transition. The critique argues that the analysis ignores the federal democratic alliance (SCEF) and Spring Revolution Alliance, which now control roughly one‑third of the country’s territory. It highlights how coordinated resistance has eroded the Tatmadaw’s logistics, while Chinese support strengthens the junta’s drone and ammunition capabilities. The piece calls on foreign democracies to abandon elite‑centric engagement and back the long‑term, bottom‑up resistance effort.
Iran Crisis: Pakistan’s Prominence and India’s Strategic Silence
The U.S.–Iran cease‑fire has been extended indefinitely, yet the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, keeping global oil shipments constrained. On The Diplomat’s Asia Geopolitics podcast, hosts highlighted Pakistan’s unexpected emergence as the primary mediator between Tehran and Washington. In contrast,...
Watching Iran, China Hopes to Learn New Tricks for the Taiwan Strait
China is closely studying Iran’s tactics in the Strait of Hormuz, using the conflict as a live laboratory for asymmetric maritime warfare. Beijing is analyzing Iran’s cheap drones, ballistic missiles, and suicide boat attacks to develop a template for disrupting...
Central Asians in Russia-Ukraine War: From Forced Recruitment to Economic Recruitment
The Ukrainian "I want to live" initiative identified 12,666 Central Asian citizens fighting for Russia since February 2022, more than double the 5,740 reported a year earlier. Uzbeks constitute the largest national group, while Tajik, Kyrgyz and Turkmen numbers also rose....
Can Trump Still Deal With Kim Jong Un After Strikes on Iran?
North Korea’s April 19 missile test, featuring cluster‑bomb warheads and destroyer‑launched cruise missiles, underscores its expanding strike portfolio. The regime has deepened a strategic partnership with Russia while trade with China rebounds to near‑pre‑pandemic levels. President Trump’s upcoming Beijing trip...
The Soyuz-5 Will Transform Kazakhstan Into a New Space Power
The joint Soyuz‑5 rocket, built by Russia and slated for Baikonur, arrived in November but its test flight has been pushed to 2026 after launch‑pad damage and safety checks. Kazakhstan’s Baiterek Space Rocket Complex, funded by a $115 million lease and...
What China’s New County Reveals About Its Afghanistan Policy
China announced the creation of Cenling County in Xinjiang’s border with Afghanistan’s Wakhan Corridor, a move that extends a series of frontier‑administrative reforms begun in 2024. The new county is positioned to support the long‑discussed Wakhan Road, a potential overland...
The Quad Isn’t Dead. It’s Just Moved Out of the Spotlight.
The article argues that the Quad is not defunct but has shifted from high‑profile summits to low‑visibility, functional coordination. It frames the grouping as a platform for aligning capabilities, setting standards in technology and supply chains, and building disaster‑response logistics....
Mongolia Is Redefining Steppe Diplomacy With Kazakhstan
Mongolian President Khurelsukh Ukhnaa completed the first state visit to Kazakhstan in two decades, cementing a strategic partnership first announced in 2024. The leaders signed 13 agreements covering trade, energy, mining and agriculture, and set a goal to raise bilateral...
How China, Russia, and North Korea Enable Each Other’s Atrocities
A new Seoul‑based report by the Citizens Alliance for North Korean Human Rights exposes a state‑directed system that traffics North Korean workers to Russia as forced labor, fueling both Moscow’s war in Ukraine and Pyongyang’s weapons program. The investigation links...
Helping Iran, China Is a Party in the War
China is covertly bolstering Iran’s war capabilities despite publicly claiming neutrality. Recent investigations reveal Beijing supplied a commercial reconnaissance satellite, air‑defense missiles, and large quantities of sodium perchlorate for solid‑fuel rockets. Additional reports cite Chinese AI firms providing geospatial data...
Jakarta’s Washington Pivot
The United States and Indonesia have shifted from soft‑power diplomacy to a transactional partnership focused on trade, critical minerals and defense. Recent agreements – the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) and the Major Development Cooperation Partnership (MDCP) – lock in...
Vietnam and South Korea Agree to Boost Cooperation on Supply Chains, Nuclear Energy
Vietnam and South Korea signed 12 agreements to deepen cooperation in nuclear energy, advanced technologies, and supply‑chain resilience, seeking to offset economic fallout from the Middle East conflict. The partners set a target of $150 billion in bilateral trade by 2030,...
Thailand’s Fuel Smuggling Problem Surges Into View
Thailand’s fuel crisis, triggered by Hormuz‑related shipping disruptions, exposed a massive diesel shortage as stations rationed and queues formed. Investigators in Surat Thani found 57 million litres of diesel missing, a volume equivalent to a full day of national consumption. The loss,...
The Security Imperative of India’s Clean Energy Transition
India’s reliance on Middle‑East fossil fuels has been starkly exposed by the recent Strait of Hormuz closure, which cut off roughly half of its crude oil and over 60% of LNG imports. The shock drove LPG shortages that cost the...
A US Strategy For Defending Taiwan – Before a War
The article outlines a U.S. strategy to deter China from seizing Taiwan without resorting to full‑scale war. It emphasizes that Beijing prefers gray‑zone coercion, such as coast‑guard “quarantine” operations, to force capitulation while avoiding a direct conflict. Four variables—Taiwan’s political...
Where Is the China-Honduras Relationship Headed?
Honduras deepened its ties with the People’s Republic of China after breaking with Taiwan in 2023, extending cooperation into telecommunications, public security, energy and technology training. Major projects include a $400 million solar park funded by a Chinese Texhong subsidiary and...
Why the 2026 NPT Review Conference – and Diplomacy – Must Not Fail
The 11th NPT Review Conference convenes in April 2026 amid unprecedented nuclear modernization by all five recognized nuclear‑weapon states and the recent lapse of the New START treaty. The article warns that without a consensus outcome, the treaty’s credibility could...
China’s Liaoning Carrier Heads South: More Than a Routine Drill
China’s Liaoning carrier and the PLAN 133rd task group moved south in a coordinated drill that coincided with Japan’s destroyer transit of the Taiwan Strait and the U.S.-Philippines Balikatan exercise. Beijing routed the task group through the Yokoate Channel rather...
Can Japan Finally Unlock Defense Technology Cooperation With India?
Japan is revamping its defense‑industrial policy to promote co‑development and export of high‑end technology, aiming to create a China‑free supply chain and boost economic growth. While Tokyo has recently succeeded in projects with the U.K., Italy, the U.S. and Australia,...
The Real Reason Taiwan’s Defense Procurement Is Stalling
Taiwan’s $11 billion U.S. arms package is stalled not because of weak resolve but due to growing public doubt that Washington will honor its security commitments. A January 2026 survey shows 70 percent favor U.S. weapons, yet only 34 percent view the United States...
Reevaluating ASEAN’s Economic Outlook Amid the Iran Conflict
Templeton Research analyst Marcus Tantau warns that the ongoing Hormuz oil crisis and the Israel‑U.S. war’s spill‑over are dragging down ASEAN growth prospects. The World Bank has trimmed regional GDP forecasts by roughly one percentage point, and a prolonged Strait...
ASEAN’s Rules of Origin Need a Rethink
ASEAN’s Rules of Origin (ROO) under ATIGA permit goods with predominantly foreign components to qualify for preferential treatment, undermining incentives for intra‑regional sourcing. Since the ROO shift to a Change‑in‑Tariff‑Classification (CTC) model, intra‑ASEAN trade has slipped to just 20‑30% of...
A Brief History of Southeast Asia’s Streaming Wars
In 2025 Southeast Asia’s streaming market expanded 19% to over 60 million paid subscribers, still under 10% of the population. Netflix remains the clear leader with more than 12 million users, while Hong‑Kong‑based Viu holds about 10 million and Indonesia’s home‑grown Vidio has...
South Korea’s Renewed Strategic Pivot to India
South Korea is reviving its strategic outreach to India as President Lee Jae‑myung prepares for a three‑day state visit in April 2026. The move builds on Seoul’s New Southern Policy and comes as India climbs to the world’s fifth‑largest economy,...
Japan’s Constitutional Theater: Revising Article 9 Would Be a Mistake
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, buoyed by a record 316‑seat lower‑house majority, is pushing to rewrite Article 9, the post‑war pacifist clause. The party argues the constitution no longer reflects reality, as the Self‑Defense Forces already operate as a modern military...
The Geopolitical Importance of India’s Shrinking ‘Red Corridor’
India’s Ministry of Home Affairs announced on April 8 that no district remains classified as Left‑Wing Extremism‑affected, marking the end of the Red Corridor that once spanned ten states. The decline stems from a twin‑track strategy that pairs intensified counter‑insurgency with...
China Was Once Buying Up Sri Lankan Ports. Now It’s India’s Turn.
India’s state‑run Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited has bought a 51 percent stake in Sri Lanka’s Colombo Dockyard for $26.8 million, marking the first overseas shipyard acquisition by an Indian firm. The 52‑year‑old yard, capable of handling vessels up to 125,000 deadweight tons,...
Move Over, Hungary: Spain Is China’s New Best Friend in the EU
Spain has eclipsed Hungary as Beijing’s most influential EU partner, highlighted by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s fourth Beijing visit and a push to label China a “strategic partner.” Chinese investment in Spain surged 50% to roughly $3 billion between 2024‑25, funding...
Japan’s Takaichi to Forge Closer Cooperation With Australia in Rare Earths
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will travel to Australia in early May to deepen rare‑earth cooperation, a cornerstone of Tokyo’s strategy to diversify away from China’s dominant supply chain. The talks will build on existing investments in Australian miners such...
The Uncertain Future of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor
The China‑Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) remains stalled despite renewed political overtures after Myanmar’s sham election. Beijing has backed the military regime, mediating ceasefires and establishing a BRI implementation committee, yet security crises in Rakhine and Shan states keep the Kyaukphyu...
Vietnam’s Top Leader Concludes 4-Day State Visit to China
Vietnam’s top leader To Lam concluded a four‑day state visit to China, meeting President Xi Jinping to discuss infrastructure, security and trade. The trip, his first abroad since being elected president, highlighted cooperation on high‑speed rail, AI and semiconductors, and...
The Iran War’s Impact on India and Pakistan
The United States has begun a naval blockade of Iranian ports, aiming to force Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption has pushed global oil, LNG and fertilizer prices higher, hitting India’s already strained urea market and prompting...
Plugging Into Reality: The ASEAN Power Grid
Southeast Asia’s long‑standing ASEAN Power Grid (APG) vision remains hampered by limited interconnection capacity, fragmented institutions, and regulatory gaps. Indonesia has pledged roughly $38 billion to expand its transmission network, while the World Bank and ADB’s ASEAN Power Grid Financing Initiative...
Uzbekistan Wants Nuclear Energy, But Can It Afford the Water Cost?
Uzbekistan announced a partnership with Russia, overseen by the IAEA, to build a nuclear power plant in Jizzakh that could supply up to 15% of the country’s electricity. The project, valued at roughly $24.7 billion, includes a national radioactive‑waste centre and...
How China’s Arctic Ambitions Inflate Russia’s Geopolitical Leverage
Russia’s Northern Sea Route is framed by law as a historic national artery, not an open international corridor. While China promotes the route as a "Polar Silk Road" and anticipates commercial growth, Russian statutes require prior authorization, routing, and reporting,...
Beyond the Rupture: Where Are China-Japan Relations Heading?
Since November 2025, Sino‑Japanese relations have plunged to a decade low after Japan’s new prime minister Takaichi Sanae’s Taiwan remarks, prompting China to impose travel bans, seafood import bans, and heightened military activity. The crisis deepened with a knife‑wielding Self‑Defense Forces...
Australia’s New National Defense Strategy Feels Written for a Bygone Era
Australia’s 2026 National Defense Strategy outlines an additional AU$53 bn (≈US$35 bn) defense budget over the next decade, aiming to lift spending to 3% of GDP. While the document largely reiterates progress from the 2024 strategy, it introduces a medium‑range surface‑to‑air missile...
China’s Taiwan Calculus Ahead of the Trump-Xi Summit
Chinese President Xi Jinping met Taiwan’s opposition KMT chair Cheng Li‑wun on April 10, 2026, timing the encounter with the 47th anniversary of the Taiwan Relations Act to shape the agenda of the upcoming Trump‑Xi summit. Beijing will use the summit to...
India Mulls Deployment of Crocodiles and Snakes at Border with Bangladesh
India’s Border Security Force is evaluating a controversial plan to release venomous snakes and crocodiles into riverine sections of the 4,096‑km India‑Bangladesh border where fencing is impractical. The proposal follows a Home Ministry directive amid ongoing nationalist rhetoric about illegal...
Bangladesh at the Crossroads: Renewables or Imported Fuel Chaos
Bangladesh, which imports roughly 60% of its energy, is feeling the squeeze of soaring global oil, coal and LNG prices triggered by the Israel‑Iran conflict. The newly elected government faces a looming $4.8 billion jump in annual fuel‑import costs and a...
Why the US Needs the PROSPER in the Pacific Act
U.S. Rep. Ed Case is urging Congress to pass H.R. 6619, the PROSPER in the Pacific Act, which would restore duty‑free treatment for Pacific Island imports similar to the pre‑2020 Generalized System of Preferences. The legislation targets critical vulnerabilities exposed by rising...
South Korea’s Harder Line on Israel Amid Energy Shock
South Korea’s President Lee Jae‑myung publicly criticized Israel, prompting a sharp diplomatic clash and the closure of the Israeli embassy in Seoul. The dispute coincided with Washington’s decision to redeploy Korean air‑defense systems to the Middle East, heightening alliance tensions....
Amid the Hormuz Crisis, Indonesia Rewrites Its Energy Playbook
Indonesia’s government responded to the Strait of Hormuz disruption with a two‑pronged strategy: domestic fuel subsidies and demand controls were kept steady while the president launched an intensive diplomatic tour of Japan, South Korea and Russia. The visits produced concrete...
China’s $4.5 Billion Headache: The Niger-Benin Pipeline and the Limits of Non-Interference
In February 2026 China warned its citizens after rebel attacks on the CNPC‑operated Niger‑Benin pipeline, a $4.5 billion project designed to lift Niger’s oil output to 90,000 barrels per day and recover a $400 million loan. The 1,950‑km line, linking Niger’s Agadem...
Why Are Educated Baloch Women Turning to Militancy?
Educated Baloch women are increasingly joining militant groups as Pakistan's military‑backed policies intensify repression. Crackdowns on high‑profile activists such as Dr. Mahrang Baloch and the politicisation of dissent have eroded trust in provincial leadership. The 2024 rigged elections and the...
The US and China Need to Talk About Unmanned Nukes
The United States and China have yet to formalize controls over AI‑driven autonomous weapons, despite a 2024 joint statement that humans must remain "in the loop" for nuclear decisions. Recent U.S. strategic documents and Trump’s upcoming Beijing visit highlight growing...
Why Did Wang Yi Go to North Korea? China’s 3 Strategic Calculations
China’s foreign minister Wang Yi made an unannounced two‑day trip to Pyongyang on April 9‑10, meeting both Kim Jong Un and North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui. The visit was timed to temper Pyongyang’s recent missile tests and to smooth the diplomatic environment ahead of...
Iran War Tests BRICS — And Reveals Its Limits
More than two months after the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran, the conflict is edging toward a fragile cease‑fire, but the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent global fuel and food prices soaring. BRICS – Brazil,...
India on the High Seas: Hormuz and the Future of Maritime Security
In a recent Beyond the Indus episode, Vice Admiral R.B. Pandit warned that the Hormuz crisis, highlighted by the sinking of Iran’s IRIS Dena, marks a watershed for global naval doctrine. He argued that the conflict’s spill‑over into the Indian Ocean...