Were Foreign Nationals and Myanmar Rebel Groups Plotting an Attack Against India?
India’s National Investigation Agency detained six Ukrainian nationals and a U.S. citizen for illegally entering Mizoram and allegedly liaising with Myanmar ethnic armed organizations. The agency claims the group sought to train insurgents and funnel European‑sourced weapons, including drones, to rebel outfits operating along the India‑Myanmar border. While Indian insurgent groups have long maintained cross‑border ties, officials stress there is no concrete evidence of a coordinated terror plot against India. The episode has prompted New Delhi to re‑impose Restricted Area Permits and heighten scrutiny of foreign activity in the Northeast.
Silence Can Be an Epic Folly: A Response to Shashi Tharoor
Muqtedar Khan challenges Shashi Tharoor’s defence of India’s diplomatic silence on the West Asian war, arguing that quietism erodes India’s credibility and strategic autonomy. He cites past instances where silence cost India, from the 1956 Hungary crisis to recent maritime...
Singapore’s 2026 Budget: A Good Time for Surpluses
Singapore’s 2026 budget projects a modest SG$4 billion surplus, continuing the fiscal upside that began with a SG$10.5 billion surplus in 2025 after revenue rose 13 percent year‑over‑year. The government earmarked $6 billion each for Changi Airport’s expansion and the National Productivity Fund, which...
Southeast Asia’s Railway Expansion
China has become the primary driver of Southeast Asia’s railway build‑out, financing and constructing most cross‑border projects under the Belt and Road Initiative. The newly completed Jakarta‑Bandung high‑speed line, a $7.2 billion venture largely funded by the China Development Bank, is...
Dhaka Must Tread Cautiously on ‘Routine Defense Agreements’ with the US
U.S. President Donald Trump urged Bangladesh’s new prime minister to finalize the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) and the Acquisition and Cross‑Servicing Agreement (ACSA), framing them as routine steps toward modernizing Dhaka’s armed forces. The agreements would grant...
South Korea’s Arms Exports Are Now Involved in the Iran War
South Korea’s defence industry has become a key supplier to the United Arab Emirates, delivering M‑SAM 2 interceptors that have achieved a reported 96 percent hit rate against Iranian missiles. The conflict has forced Seoul to air‑lift interceptor reloads into an active...
David vs Goliath: How Vanuatu Is Standing up to the US
Vanuatu is leading a diplomatic push at the United Nations to adopt a resolution that would implement the International Court of Justice’s 2025 advisory opinion on climate‑justice obligations. The draft, slated for an Earth Day vote on 22 April 2026, calls for...
Taiwan’s New Southbound 2.0: Rewiring the Indo-Pacific Beyond China
At the 2026 Yushan Forum, President Lai Ching‑te recast Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy as a broader Indo‑Pacific strategy that blends trade, technology, democratic cooperation, and security. The forum attracted over 70 leaders from 22 nations, underscoring Taiwan’s push to deepen...
Beijing’s Real Problem With Trump’s China Summit Delay
President Donald Trump hinted at delaying his state visit to Beijing unless China helped reopen the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a brief media frenzy. Beijing’s foreign ministry responded calmly, accepting the postponement without framing it as U.S. pressure and emphasizing...
The Indonesia-US Agreement: A ‘Reciprocal’ Trade Deal That Isn’t
The Indonesia‑U.S. Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART), signed in February 2026, obliges Indonesia to eliminate tariffs on 99 percent of American goods, purchase billions in U.S. energy and aircraft, and surrender digital‑tax authority, while the United States faces a 19 percent tariff on...
China Funds 9 Border Posts for Tajikistan as Frontier Violence Escalates
China has pledged a non‑repayable $61 million grant to build nine border posts along Tajikistan’s Afghan frontier, covering 17,109 sq m of observation posts and headquarters. The project follows a series of lethal attacks on Chinese workers in late 2025, which heightened Beijing’s security...
The Iran-Israel-US War Is Exposing China’s Alliance Problem
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. war underscores how the United States leverages a dense network of allies, from Gulf partners providing early‑warning data to Indo‑Pacific nations offering bases and logistics. U.S. officials highlighted Israel’s combat prowess, but the broader coalition’s role is the...
Vietnam and the Geopolitics of Critical Minerals
Vietnam has tightened restrictions on raw rare‑earth exports to force domestic refining, positioning itself as a niche superpower in critical minerals. Meanwhile, the United States is building a broad coalition of more than 50 partners through initiatives like the Critical...
Indonesia’s Local Content Requirements Are No Shortcut to Industrialization
Indonesia’s new Agreement on Reciprocal Trade exempts U.S. firms from the country’s local‑content requirements (LCRs), a policy originally designed to boost domestic manufacturing. The article argues that LCRs alone have not moved Indonesia’s manufacturing share beyond 18‑19 percent and that without...
Strategic Stakes Rise for Bangladesh as Iran Targets Gulf Neighbors
Bangladesh’s economic lifeline to the Gulf hinges on 3 million migrant workers and $24 billion in annual remittances. Recent Iranian missile and drone attacks across GCC airspace have heightened security risks for these expatriates. The government is weighing a neutral diplomatic stance...
Indonesia and Australia to Expand Security Cooperation to Include Japan, Papua New Guinea
Indonesia and Australia announced plans to broaden their security partnership by creating two trilateral arrangements, one with Japan and another with Papua New Guinea. The initiatives follow the recent Jakarta Treaty, which already deepens bilateral consultations and joint training, and...
How the New Gulf War Is Impacting Mongolia
The February 28 Gulf War between the United States‑Israel coalition and Iran has quickly rippled to Mongolia, prompting its foreign ministry to alert the 281 Mongolian nationals living in the Middle East and arrange emergency repatriation flights. By March 11, 91 citizens...
China’s High-Tech Narrative Cannot Solve Its Deflation Problem
Premier Li Qiang added the Consumer Price Index to the 2026 Government Work Report, formally acknowledging deflation for the first time. The annual GDP growth target was lowered to 4.5‑5 percent, the first sub‑5 percent goal since 1991. While a trade surplus...
India’s Supreme Court Grants Bail to Veteran Kashmiri Separatist Shabir Ahmed Shah
India’s Supreme Court granted bail on March 12 to 74‑year‑old separatist leader Shabir Ahmed Shah after more than six years of pre‑trial detention. The bench of Justices Vikram Nath and Sandeep Mehta cited procedural irregularities, delayed witness examination, and Shah’s age and...
Ahead of Constitutional Referendum Social Media Companies Restrict Journalist Accounts in Kazakhstan
Ahead of Kazakhstan’s March 15 constitutional referendum, social‑media platforms have systematically restricted journalists and independent media. A Meta account posing as a luxury brand flagged posts, leading Instagram to delete content from reporters like Murat Daniyar and Assem Zhapisheva, while YouTube blocked channels...
Is Khamenei’s Killing Narrowing the Shia-Sunni Divide in South Asia?
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by U.S.-Israeli forces sparked widespread protests across South Asia. In India, Bangladesh and Pakistan, Sunni‑majority crowds marched alongside Shia groups, chanting against the United States and Israel. Organizers framed the strike...
Southeast Asia and the Middle East Energy Shock
U.S. strikes on Iran have prompted Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE to suspend oil and gas operations and deter tankers from the Strait of Hormuz, sharply curtailing Middle East energy exports. The disruption threatens $208 billion in crude shipments—about 21%...
Fukushima and the ‘Lessons Learned’ From Nuclear Disasters
Marking fifteen years since the 2011 disaster, Fukushima remains a focal point for global nuclear safety debates. International bodies such as the IAEA have used the accident to revise safety standards and promote a narrative of technical resilience. Critics argue...
EU, Thailand Must Address Migrant Worker Rights in Trade Talks
The European Union is fast‑tracking free‑trade agreements with Thailand, but migrant‑worker rights remain a critical blind spot. Thailand relies on millions of migrant laborers—many undocumented—and bars them from forming unions while still not ratifying core ILO conventions. EU trade deals...
Kazakhstan’s Pragmatic Foreign Policy Faces Uncertainty Amid Attacks Across the Middle East
Kazakhstan’s President Kassym‑Jomart Tokayev has steered a pragmatic foreign policy through the recent wave of missile and drone attacks across the Middle East, opting for neutrality while maintaining diplomatic channels with Iran, Israel, Gulf states and the United States. He...
Gulf War 3.0: The Iran Conflict Spreads to South Asia
The Beyond the Indus podcast episode examines how the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict is spilling over into South Asia. Host Tushar Shetty and analyst Siddhant Kishore discuss India’s strategic pivot away from Tehran, the sinking of the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena, and...
The Iran Crisis and the BRICS Dilemma
The Iran‑U.S. conflict is spilling into the Gulf, forcing BRICS to confront its first major geopolitical test since the 2024 expansion. While Russia and China back Tehran’s strategic autonomy, India adopts a cautious stance to protect its Chabahar‑linked trade interests....
Kyrgyz Supreme Court Dismissed Kloop’s Appeal of ‘Extremist’ Declaration
Kyrgyzstan’s Supreme Court on March 9 rejected Kloop’s appeal, confirming the October 2025 ruling that labeled the investigative outlet as extremist. The court’s rapid review, conducted without summoning Kloop’s representatives, raised concerns about judicial independence and procedural fairness. Kloop’s lawyer accused judges...
Africa Gets Duty-Free Access to China – But Chinese Companies Win on Both Sides
Starting May 1, China will waive import duties on virtually all goods from every African nation except Eswatini, expanding a previous exemption for 33 least‑developed countries. The move, announced by President Xi at the African Union summit, is framed as...
China Really Thinks It Is Just Defending Itself
China’s Communist Party frames its far‑reaching global actions as defensive, even as it expands military capabilities, maritime claims and economic influence. This self‑perception stems from a blend of historic victimhood and a belief in inherent peacefulness, which turns defensive intent...
South Korea and the Philippines Expand Ties in Nuclear Energy and Critical Minerals
South Korean President Lee Jae‑myung visited the Philippines on March 3‑4, 2026, marking the 77th anniversary of diplomatic ties and signing ten memoranda of understanding across AI, cybersecurity, defense, and energy. The two leaders pledged deeper cooperation on critical minerals, leveraging...
Hong Kong Is Beijing’s New ‘Vanguard’ in the Contest for Financial Sovereignty
China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan designates Hong Kong as the vanguard of its “strong financial nation” strategy, shifting the city from a neutral capital bridge to a core component of Beijing’s financial security architecture. The 2026‑27 Hong Kong budget formalizes this...
India and Canada Reset: Pragmatism Takes Precedence Over Recriminations
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s four‑day visit to India in late February marked a pragmatic reset in bilateral ties, delivering a suite of agreements across energy, AI, defense, space and critical minerals. The centerpiece is a $1.91 billion uranium supply contract...
Assessing North Korea’s New Economic Five-Year Plan
North Korea’s Ninth Party Congress unveiled a five‑year plan focused on stabilization, consolidation and modest qualitative development rather than rapid growth. The agenda places the power sector at the core, linking factory construction, hospital building and agricultural mechanisation to reliable...
Is India Torpedoing Its Claims to Being a Net Security Provider in the IOR?
A U.S. nuclear submarine torpedoed the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena in international waters off Sri Lanka, killing dozens of sailors. The vessel had been a guest of the Indian Navy after participating in a fleet review in Visakhapatnam, yet New Delhi issued...
What Does Indonesia Get Out of the US-Indonesia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade?
In February 2026 President Donald Trump and President Prabowo Subianto signed a U.S.-Indonesia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade that obliges Jakarta to facilitate $10 billion of U.S. investment and import roughly $33 billion of American goods, mainly energy and agriculture. The deal was...
What the Iran-US War Means for Asia
The Diplomat’s Asia Geopolitics podcast examined the U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iran, framing it as a flashpoint that could reshape Asian strategic calculations. Hosts Ankit Panda and Catherine Putz highlighted how the conflict tests nuclear deterrence credibility and may inspire North...
Peru and the Limits of Alarmism About Chinese Investment
The Port of Chancay, inaugurated in 2024, is a joint COSCO‑Volcan venture financed by a $975 million Chinese loan. In its first ten months of operation, the port moved $1.88 billion in trade and generated $234 million in customs revenue, moving toward a...
Sanctions Evasion, Statecraft, and the New Crypto Geography in the Asia-Pacific
The Asia‑Pacific is emerging as a pivotal arena where cryptocurrency intersects with sanctions enforcement and state strategy. Blockchain’s peer‑to‑peer settlement bypasses traditional banking chokepoints, allowing actors—from North Korean hackers to Russian entities—to launder stolen assets through mixers, cross‑chain bridges and...
Implications of Prolonged Unrest in Iran for Pakistan
The United States and Israel launched coordinated attacks on Iran after the February 27 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei, prompting Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz and target regional airports. Iran’s resilient regime is now focused on defending its...
Uzbekistan’s Afghanistan Push Accelerates
Uzbekistan has accelerated economic integration with Afghanistan, with 2025 bilateral trade reaching $1.5‑$1.68 billion—a 53% jump from the prior year and 2.5‑fold growth since 2021. Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Khodjaev aims to lift trade to $5 billion, backed by a forthcoming Kabul...
Central Asia Watches, Worries, as Conflict Threatens to Engulf the Middle East
Central Asian governments, long silent during Iran's December protests, issued cautious statements after the United States and Israel launched a surprise strike on Iran. Their foreign ministries emphasized restraint, the UN Charter, and humanitarian concerns while deliberately omitting any attribution...
Central Asia’s ‘Soft Confederation’ Has a Hard Limit
Central Asia’s five states (C5) have coalesced around a sovereignty‑first coordination model, dubbed a “soft confederation,” that emphasizes consensus and minimal delegation. Recent C5+ diplomatic rounds—an EU summit in Samarkand, a U.S. White House meeting, and Germany’s C5+1 foreign‑minister talks—have...
Beyond the Third Neighbor: Mongolia-US Ties in an Era of Great Power Competition
The United States and Mongolia marked 39 years of diplomatic ties while deepening their Strategic Partnership with flagship projects such as the $462 million MCC Water Compact and a USTDA‑backed aviation safety program. Mongolia’s recent accession to the Trump‑led Board of...
During Lula’s Visit, South Korea and Brazil Agree to Revive Mercosur Trade Talks
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visited Seoul, upgrading the bilateral relationship to a strategic partnership and signing ten MOUs across AI, biotech, agriculture, health and security. The summit’s headline outcome was the decision to revive stalled Mercosur free‑trade...
2 Olympic Gold Medalists Show the Mixed Results of China’s Efforts to Bring Back Diaspora Talent
China’s municipal government paid Olympic skiers Eileen Gu and Beverly Zhu a combined $6.6 million in 2025, highlighting Beijing’s renewed push to lure diaspora talent. The effort builds on the legacy of the Thousand Talents and Qiming programs, which offer generous...
Did Indonesia Just Lock Itself Into an Energy Future It Can’t Afford?
Indonesia’s new trade agreement obliges the country to import $15 billion of U.S. oil and gas each year, contradicting President Prabowo Subianto’s pledge for energy self‑sufficiency. The deal was signed to sidestep tariffs that were later nullified, leaving Indonesia locked into...
Merz in China: Germany Between De-Risking and Strategic Partnership
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz concluded a two‑day visit to China, pledging a comprehensive strategic partnership while emphasizing the need for de‑risking amid trade imbalances. He highlighted persistent overcapacity and urged Beijing to play a constructive role in curbing Russia’s war in...
The Future of Japan’s Regional Banks: Demographics, Mergers, and a Tight Market
Japan’s regional banks, once pillars of local growth, now face shrinking deposits and borrowers as the nation records its 16th consecutive year of population decline. Consolidation is accelerating, highlighted by the 2025 Aomori Bank‑Michinoku Bank merger that now controls about...
Southeast Asia’s Grab Finally Turns a Profit
Southeast Asian super‑app Grab reported its first full‑year profit in 2025, posting a $200 million net gain after narrowing losses from $1.7 billion in 2022 to $158 million in 2024. Revenue climbed roughly 20% to $3.4 billion as transaction volume rose 21% to $22 billion...