The Overshoot

Is U.S. Wage Growth Slowing Or Not?

The average wage for typical American private‑sector workers increased only 3% over the past six months on a seasonally‑adjusted basis, aligning with pre‑pandemic norms and trailing the 4.1% annualized growth seen from mid‑2023 to mid‑2025. The slowdown is driven almost entirely by a sharp deceleration in the private education and health services sector. This marks a departure from years of stable wage gains across most industries. Analysts debate whether the dip signals a broader labor‑market cooling or a sector‑specific anomaly.