The Case for Higher U.S. Rates
Kevin Warsh, a Fed nominee, warns that software‑driven price declines could compel the central bank to cut rates preemptively, but current data contradict that narrative. Inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target, while a sharp commodity price surge is boosting wages, job growth, and consumer spending. The Iran‑Hormuz conflict has constrained oil output, yet the recent reopening of the strait promises an additional growth lift. In this environment, the Federal Open Market Committee is more likely to raise rates than to ease them.
Russia's Underwhelming Oil Revenue Windfall
Brent crude surged to about $103 per barrel in March, up from $66 in the October‑February window, while Russian Urals prices rose to roughly $55 after limited sanctions were eased to ease Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Six weeks earlier analysts...
"Look Through" The Hormuz Shock if You Want. U.S. Inflation Is Still Running Hot.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and the UAE to cut roughly 7.5 million barrels per day of crude output in March, with shut‑ins expected to reach about 9 million barrels per day in April...
Is U.S. Wage Growth Slowing Or Not?
The average wage for typical American private‑sector workers increased only 3% over the past six months on a seasonally‑adjusted basis, aligning with pre‑pandemic norms and trailing the 4.1% annualized growth seen from mid‑2023 to mid‑2025. The slowdown is driven almost...