What the Data Says About NBA Tanking, and How to Fix It

Why It Matters

The rise in engineered tanking erodes fan interest and devalues regular‑season games, threatening the NBA’s revenue and brand. Reforming the draft lottery could curb the practice and preserve competitive integrity.

Key Takeaways

• April 2025‑26 saw 34% of games decided by 20+ points.
• Flattened lottery odds increased mid‑tier teams' incentive to tank.
• NBA Board of Governors will vote on expanding lottery to 18 teams.
• Proposed “Gold Plan” rewards wins after playoff elimination to curb tanking.
• Oklahoma City’s 2021‑22 tanking model produced later championship talent.

Pulse Analysis

The 2025‑26 NBA season has set a new benchmark for lopsided contests. In April, more than one‑third of games were decided by a 20‑point margin, eclipsing the previous record of 28% in March and 25% in February. While scoring averages have risen to 115.6 points per game—the highest since the 1960s—historical data shows that offensive booms alone do not produce such a spike in blowouts. The surge aligns with a broader pattern that began in the early 2020s, when the proportion of games ending with large margins steadily climbed, signaling a systemic issue beyond isolated performance fluctuations.

The catalyst behind the surge is the league’s 2019 lottery overhaul, which flattened draft odds and shifted the sweet spot from the absolute worst teams to those hovering in the middle of the standings. Teams like Utah and Oklahoma City have begun resting star players after the All‑Star break, fielding lineups of G‑League call‑ups to improve their lottery position. The strategy has become financially tolerable; the NBA fined Utah $500,000 for “conduct detrimental to the league,” and Dallas incurred a $750,000 fine for resting healthy players, costs that many front offices deem acceptable for a chance at a generational pick.

League officials are now weighing more radical reforms. A proposal to expand the lottery to 18 teams would give the ten worst clubs an equal 8% chance at the No. 1 pick, potentially deepening the incentive for mid‑tier teams to tank. An alternative, the “Gold Plan” borrowed from professional hockey, would award draft‑ranking points for wins earned after a team is mathematically eliminated from the postseason, turning the end‑of‑season grind into a competitive pursuit. If adopted, such a system could restore meaning to regular‑season games and protect the NBA’s long‑term marketability.