NEW REPORT - EV Endgame: Stalling China’s Export Surge in Europe’s Southern Neighbourhood

Key Takeaways

• Chinese EV firms rapidly entering Morocco, Turkey, GCC markets.
• Investments aim to sidestep EU anti‑dumping tariffs.
• Europe faces supply‑chain dependence on Chinese battery tech.
• EU must align trade policy with Mediterranean Pact.
• Regional partnerships essential to avoid Sino‑European EV clash.

Summary

A new ECFR report details how Chinese electric‑vehicle and battery firms are rapidly establishing production and sales footholds across Morocco, Turkey, the Gulf states and broader MENA region. The strategy is designed to capture emerging market share while sidestepping looming EU anti‑dumping tariffs on Chinese imports. This surge threatens Europe’s competitive edge in the auto sector and deepens its reliance on Chinese supply chains for the green transition. The authors argue that the EU must coordinate trade, industrial and neighbourhood policies to counteract this trend.

Pulse Analysis

China’s aggressive push into the Middle East and North Africa reflects a confluence of domestic over‑capacity, generous state subsidies and a desire to bypass the European Union’s looming anti‑dumping duties. By locating assembly lines and battery plants in Morocco, Turkey and Gulf states, Chinese automakers gain proximity to European ports while exploiting lower labor costs and favorable trade agreements. This model mirrors earlier Chinese strategies in Africa, but the EV focus adds a layer of strategic urgency as the region seeks to leapfrog to clean‑energy mobility.

For European manufacturers, the MENA surge poses a two‑fold challenge. First, it undercuts price competition, forcing EU firms to contend with Chinese vehicles that can be sold at a fraction of the cost thanks to state‑backed financing and warranty schemes. Second, the growing reliance on Chinese battery components threatens supply‑chain resilience, especially as Europe strives to meet its 2030 emissions targets. If unchecked, these dynamics could erode the EU’s industrial base and dilute its bargaining power in future trade negotiations, turning the green transition into a dependency risk.

Policymakers are therefore urged to integrate the EU’s new neighbourhood policy and the Pact for the Mediterranean with a coherent industrial strategy. This means tightening rules on tariff circumvention, incentivising joint R&D projects with trusted regional partners, and building a diversified battery ecosystem that reduces reliance on Chinese inputs. By fostering collaborative clean‑tech hubs across the southern corridor, Europe can safeguard its market share, reinforce supply‑chain security, and maintain geopolitical influence in a rapidly electrifying world.