Return to Normal for Hormuz Could Be Months Away, Says DHL

Why It Matters

The prolonged closure of the Hormuz strait threatens global oil and container flows, forcing shippers to absorb higher freight rates, longer transit times, and supply‑chain volatility across the Middle East and beyond.

Key Takeaways

• DHL expects 4‑6 months before normal Strait of Hormuz traffic
• Trapped vessels have been stuck in Gulf for ~40 days
• DHL shifted air hub operations to Riyadh and Muscat amid Bahrain closure
• New B747F Liège‑Jeddah service targets pharma cargo across GCC
• Gulf port congestion creates trucking shortages and container imbalances

Pulse Analysis

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical chokepoints, funneling roughly 20 % of global oil shipments and a sizable share of container traffic between the Middle East and Europe. Since the recent escalation, more than 40 vessels have been stranded in the Arabian Gulf, and industry analysts estimate that even a stable cease‑fire will not translate into immediate capacity restoration. DHL Global Forwarding’s regional CEO Tobias Maier projects a four‑to‑six‑month horizon before normal ocean schedules resume, reflecting the “one week of disruption, one month to absorb” rule that has guided past crises. This timeline underscores the lingering risk of supply‑chain bottlenecks for energy‑intensive manufacturers and downstream retailers.

In response, DHL has reengineered its air‑freight network to bypass the closed Bahrain hub, establishing daily feeder flights through Riyadh and Muscat and maintaining a three‑times‑weekly B747F lane from Liège to Jeddah for time‑critical pharma and life‑science cargo. The shift not only preserves service continuity for high‑value shipments but also leverages the full capacity commitments of Gulf carriers such as Emirates and Etihad. By diversifying entry points, DHL mitigates the impact of regional airspace restrictions while positioning itself to capture market share as competitors scramble to fill the void.

The ripple effects extend beyond maritime lanes. Congestion at alternative Gulf ports like Khor Fakkan and Sohar has strained inland trucking capacity, inflating drayage rates and exacerbating container imbalances that force carriers to reroute loads to distant Indian or Sri Lankan terminals. Insurers remain cautious, demanding higher premiums for vessels that attempt the Hormuz passage, further elevating cost structures. For shippers, the prudent strategy is to build inventory buffers, renegotiate freight contracts, and monitor diplomatic developments closely. As the cease‑fire holds, the industry’s ability to adapt will determine whether the projected months of disruption can be shortened.