Shipping’s Biofuel Gamble Could Deepen Africa’s Land Squeeze and Food Insecurity (Commentary)

Why It Matters

If biofuels enter shipping’s decarbonisation pathway, Africa could face heightened land grabs, higher food prices, and deeper socio‑environmental inequities, undermining climate justice and regional stability.

Key Takeaways

• Shipping emits 3% global emissions, 300M tons fuel
• Crop‑based biofuels would need vast African land area
• Land conversion threatens food security and Indigenous livelihoods
• Rising food‑price volatility could hit import‑dependent nations
• IMO rules could either protect or expose Africa to extraction

Pulse Analysis

Shipping’s contribution to climate change is disproportionate to its size, accounting for about 3 % of global CO₂ emissions and consuming roughly 300 million tons of fuel each year. As the International Maritime Organization prepares new decarbonisation standards, biofuels have emerged as a touted solution, promising carbon‑neutral fuel derived from crops. Yet the scale required to replace even a fraction of marine fuel would consume extensive acreage, prompting concerns that the sector’s green transition could inadvertently trigger a new wave of resource extraction in vulnerable regions.

Across Africa, land competition has already reached a tipping point. Since 2000, hundreds of large‑scale deals for agriculture, carbon credits, mining and biofuel plantations have re‑defined “marginal” lands—areas that actually support smallholder farmers, pastoralists and Indigenous peoples. Converting these ecosystems into monoculture biofuel farms would erode carbon sinks, diminish biodiversity, and strip communities of vital safety nets, intensifying food insecurity and rural poverty. Moreover, global demand for vegetable oils and grains would likely push prices higher, burdening import‑dependent African economies with volatile food costs.

Policymakers must therefore shape IMO regulations to prevent a repeat of past extraction patterns. Robust sustainability criteria, transparent land‑rights assessments, and a clear exclusion of food‑based biofuels are essential safeguards. African delegations should champion alternative low‑carbon pathways—such as green hydrogen, ammonia, or electrified vessels powered by renewable electricity—that avoid direct competition with food production. By asserting their voice at the IMO, African states can steer the maritime sector toward a truly equitable climate solution that protects both the continent’s ecosystems and its food sovereignty.