What Will It Take to Get Ships Going Through the Strait of Hormuz Again?

Why It Matters

Shipping through the Hormuz corridor underpins roughly 20% of global oil flow; prolonged disruption raises freight costs and threatens energy market stability. Demonstrating safety and upholding freedom of navigation are essential to prevent broader geopolitical and economic fallout.

Key Takeaways

• Daily transits fell from ~130 to just a handful
• Iran's threats, not blockades, deter commercial vessels
• US naval escorts could restore confidence in the strait
• Imposing tolls would violate UNCLOS transit passage rights
• International reassurance effort needed to secure shipping lanes

Pulse Analysis

The cease‑fire declared by President Trump on April 8 was intended to signal a return to normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that carries about one‑fifth of the world’s oil. In practice, Iranian threats and recent attacks have driven commercial traffic from roughly 130 vessels per day to a handful, underscoring that shipping decisions are driven by risk assessments rather than political pronouncements. This deterrence effect has kept tankers and cargo ships anchored in the Gulf, inflating freight premiums and prompting insurers to raise rates.

Rebuilding confidence will likely require a two‑phase approach. First, the threat must be materially reduced through coordinated military pressure, diplomatic engagement, or a mix of both, targeting Iran’s capability to strike merchant vessels. Second, a visible reassurance campaign—such as limited US naval escorts for US‑flagged ships and a broader multinational maritime security construct—can signal to operators that the waterway is safe. The International Maritime Security Construct, launched after the 2019 Gulf of Oman attacks, demonstrated how transparency, information‑sharing, and rapid response can stabilize traffic without large‑scale convoys.

Complicating matters is speculation that Iran may seek to impose a toll on transits, a move that would contravene the United Nations Convention on the Law of Sea’s guarantee of free passage through international straits. Allowing such a precedent could embolden other coastal states to monetize strategic waterways, threatening the principle of freedom of navigation that underpins global trade. A coordinated international response—clear legal condemnation, swift sanctions for any toll attempts, and transparent assessments of mine threats—will be essential to preserve the strait’s open status and protect the broader energy market.