The COB: What a Week

Why It Matters

The market’s rebound masks deeper risks—persistent fuel inflation and geopolitical uncertainty could curb consumer spending and force tighter monetary policy, affecting investors and households alike.

Key Takeaways

• ASX 200 rose 4.4%—best week since Oct 2022
• Ceasefire talks lifted markets, but oil flow remains uncertain
• Fuel prices still high, adding $80 monthly cost for families
• Tech sector down 1.7%; Life360 cuts jobs due to AI
• RBA likely to hike rates in May amid rising inflation

Summary

The COB wrapped up a volatile week on Australian markets, noting the S&P/ASX 200 jumped 4.4%—its strongest gain since October 2022—driven by a tentative cease‑fire between Iran and the United States and optimism that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz may resume. Despite the rally, the broader energy and technology sectors stayed under pressure, with the tech index slipping 1.7% and Life360 announcing AI‑driven layoffs, while banks such as CBA and the big four posted modest gains.

Key data points highlighted the market’s relief rally of 2.7% on Wednesday, a mixed performance across commodities—gold edging higher on a weaker dollar, but oil prices hovering just below $100 a barrel—and a persistent fuel‑price squeeze that adds roughly $80 a month to an average Australian household’s budget. Inflation gauges are edging up, with the Melbourne Institute’s March reading hitting 4.3%, prompting expectations of another Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike, likely in May.

Notable company news included Telix Pharmaceuticals securing FDA approval for a brain‑cancer imaging drug, and AM’s CEO outlining a shift toward AI and tighter capital allocation. The segment also featured a candid interview with guest Shane Oliver, who warned that oil supply gaps of 10‑15% could linger for months, and that diesel prices remain stubbornly high despite recent excise cuts.

For investors, the week underscores a fragile optimism: while the cease‑fire offers a short‑term market boost, lingering geopolitical risk, stubborn fuel costs and rising inflation keep the outlook cautious. Policy‑makers and corporates alike will need to navigate the twin challenges of supporting growth while containing price pressures.

Original Description

Iran’s chokehold of the Strait of Hormuz soured investor sentiment this Friday following what has been a positive week for the Australian sharemarket. The S&P/ASX200 slipped 0.14% by the close to 8,960.60, though still managed to notch a weekly gain of 4.4%.

Oil inched higher following its recent dip on news of a ceasefire between the US and Iran, up 0.7% to US$96.6 a barrel.

Locally, tech led the declines, tracking a software sell-off on Wall Street, with the sector down 1.4% as heavyweight WiseTech fell 2.6%.

Life360 also came under pressure, down 3.3% after chief executive Lauren Antonoff revealed the company had parted ways with an undisclosed number of roles as it reshapes for an AI future.

Elsewhere, Fortescue announced its plans to eliminate fossil fuels across parts of its Pilbara operations, bringing forward its decarbonisation timeline. The share price slipped 1.3% in line with a broader materials selloff.

While Magellan Financial Group has backed its $1.6bn Barrenjoey takeover, with over 92% of proxy votes in favour, gaining a slight 1.2% over the day.

Tonight, core US CPI data is set to be released.