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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Muni market faces pressure from fragile cease‑fire and $13.5B new‑issue slate
Analysts warn that a tentative cease‑fire in the Middle East and a hefty $13.5 billion municipal new‑issue calendar will strain the market next week. The issuance slate is led by $2.3 billion of taxable general‑obligation bonds from New York City and $1.5 billion from another major issuer, keeping supply high amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Inspirion Wealth Advisors increased its holding in BlackRock's iShares AAA CLO Active ETF by 63,417 shares, an estimated $3.3 million purchase. The addition lifts the fund to 3.64% of Inspirion's reportable assets, underscoring a broader shift toward high‑quality, floating‑rate structured credit.
The euro appreciated on Friday after ING highlighted that markets now price only a 6‑basis‑point ECB hike on 30 April, with about 55 basis points still priced by year‑end. The analyst expects the euro to hold near 1.1700 against the dollar, outpacing...
The Bank of Korea kept its seven‑day repurchase rate unchanged at 2.50% for the seventh consecutive meeting, matching a 93% market expectation. The decision came as inflationary pressure from oil prices and exchange‑rate volatility rose, but a surge in semiconductor...
Moody's downgraded Southeast Housing’s military‑housing revenue bonds to Ba1, a junk‑grade rating, affecting $350 million of 2007 Series I bonds. The cut reflects weakened fiscal 2025 performance driven by costly environmental remediation at Naval Air Station‑Key West, which pushed the coverage ratio...
The U.S. federal debt now incurs over $1.2 trillion in annual interest, consuming roughly 23% of tax revenue and poised to become the largest budget line item. A "maturity wall" of $8‑9.6 trillion in Treasury securities will come due in 2026, forcing...
The episode examines how the recent Iran‑US ceasefire is reshaping bond issuance in the Gulf and broader emerging markets. With public markets still volatile, sovereigns like Abu Dhabi and Qatar, as well as Egypt, have turned to private placements, accepting slightly...
Advisors are reconfiguring the fixed‑income portion of 60/40 portfolios as sticky inflation and shifting Fed expectations compress yields. A VettaFi survey shows 34% of advisors struggle most with finding yield without excess credit risk, while 31% worry about duration. Eighty‑eight...
In late 1997 JPMorgan introduced the Bistro structure, a synthetic credit‑risk transfer that bundled $9.7 billion of corporate, bond and municipal exposures into a special‑purpose vehicle and sold Ba2 and AAA‑rated notes to investors. By requiring only $700 million of capital –...
If we invert the 10-year bond yield we get a “P/E” ratio for bonds. The chart below shows that since the 2022 rate reset, the bond P/E has been stuck in a tight triangle. That triangle could be a base,...
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the March Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET, with analysts warning of a sharp rise driven by a 1% jump in oil prices to $98.6 per barrel amid fragile US‑Iran ceasefire talks. Futures...
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $22 billion of 30‑year bonds, achieving a 4.876% high yield and a 2.39 bid‑to‑cover ratio, the lowest demand since November. The result highlights a market tilt toward front‑end securities amid geopolitical uncertainty and mixed inflation data.
The Treasury announced that the March Consumer Price Index has set the new I Bond variable rate at 3.34% annualized, reflecting a modest slowdown in six‑month inflation. This rate applies to all newly issued I Bonds and will be combined with the...
Realty Income became the first REIT to fund a prepaid‑energy municipal bond, backing San Diego Community Power's $687.2 million revenue‑bond issuance. The deal, priced on March 10 through the California Community Choice Financing Authority, was heavily oversubscribed despite market volatility from the...
François Collet, CIO of DNCA, says the Iran conflict will act as a short‑term inflationary shock, lifting European inflation expectations above 3% and keeping U.S. inflation near 3.25% over the next year. He forecasts GDP growth could be trimmed by 10‑30...
More than $330 bn of high‑yield, leveraged‑loan and BDC‑linked software debt tied to private‑equity portfolios will come due through 2028. At the same time, artificial‑intelligence advances threaten to devalue or replace the very products these firms rely on, intensifying refinancing pressure.
The TREPP CMBS monthly report shows March delinquency rates rising to 7.55%, a 41‑basis‑point jump and the highest since COVID‑19. New delinquencies total $5.1 billion, with lodging and office sectors leading the surge, underscoring mounting credit risk for office‑building financing.
Red Spruce Capital, LLC disclosed a $4.03 million purchase of the Invesco BulletShares 2027 Corporate Bond ETF and a $3.35 million purchase of the 2029 ETF, bringing its combined stake in the two funds to roughly $7.4 million. The moves raise Red Spruce’s...
The Reserve Bank of India’s abrupt limits on banks’ daily currency positions have forced a $30 billion unwind of arbitrage trades, sending foreign investors fleeing Indian sovereign bonds. The rupee rallied more than 2% to 92.66 per dollar, but banks face...
Circle Internet Group’s fourth‑quarter 2025 revenue of $770 million, 95% of which came from reserve income on USDC holdings, is being squeezed by a declining reserve return rate. The macro‑sensitive model forces the firm to accelerate diversification as interest‑rate headwinds threaten...
Palomar Insurance Holdings is launching its seventh catastrophe bond, targeting $375 million to secure California earthquake and Hawaii named‑storm reinsurance through the Torrey Pines Re 2026‑1 series. The issuance comprises four tranches—three covering California quake risk and one covering Hawaii storm...
Clariane SE issued a pre‑stabilisation notice for a €500 million (≈$540 million) senior unsecured note offering with a five‑year maturity. The offer price is to be confirmed, and the stabilisation period is slated for 10 April 2026 through 16 May 2026. BNP Paribas, CACIB, SG, CIC, Goldman Sachs,...
Capri Global Capital announced a ₹500 crore (≈$60 million) non‑convertible debenture (NCD) issue with coupons up to 9.5% and a green‑shoe option of ₹400 crore. The tranche opens on 15 April and closes on 28 April, offering tenures from 24 to 120 months and both...
There are a lot of stories about Chinese assets acting like havens, especially China IG credit outperforming. How do you square that with a very weak economy? Well, the reason China IG credit is outperforming is because of the weak economy....
⚠️The Fed's losses are MASSIVE: The Fed's cumulative losses sit at near a RECORD $245 billion. This represents the gap between what the Fed pays commercial banks in interest on their reserves and what it earns on its bond holdings. 👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-federal-reserve-s-cumulative-losses-are-massive
Russia's central bank is weighing a pause in its series of interest‑rate cuts, a move that could shore up the ruble as inflation stays near 4‑5% and Middle‑East tensions loom. Advisor Kirill Tremasov said the April board will assess the...
A lot of lending to small/midsize companies is for a term of 5 to 7 years. A great deal of debt issued 3/2020 to 9/2021 is therefore coming due these days. UST interest rates were near zero in that issuance...
Swing chart of TLT shows resistance in middle of prior range, currently on a sell. https://t.co/mtjHPXt3sa
Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia) failed to reach a debt‑restructuring agreement after bondholders rejected its opening proposal. The state‑owned operator seeks to restructure roughly $1.1 billion of outstanding bonds, a debt load swollen by war‑induced revenue drops and soaring repair costs. Damage from...
I think bonds are saying they don't really care that this inflation print was 'better than expectations' because 1) it's still not good and 2) the next few months are going to be even worse.
5/10-year yields just pulled back in uptrends... opportunity to reduce your (lagging) bond exposure into strength...
The municipal bond market contains a $100 billion niche of prepaid energy bonds that appear and trade like traditional tax‑exempt munis, but their credit risk is tied to corporate guarantors rather than the issuing municipality. Increasingly, these guarantors are insurance companies...
Global rate path veers higher in wake of another Trump shock https://t.co/xtMlttlWvY with @CraigStirling https://t.co/mrRZfr13lH
It’s ugly, but slightly less ugly: US Government Interest Payments, Tax Receipts, Average Interest Rate on the Debt, and Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Q4 2025 https://t.co/DGqm2fqkjX https://t.co/HaOX0c5eRE
Moody's lowered Rocky Mount, North Carolina’s issuer and special‑tax ratings to A1, two notches below its previous Aa2 standing, citing a sharp erosion of liquidity that fell to under 11 % of revenue in FY 2025. The city carries $80.2 million in debt...
This is how Hormuz turns into a debt crisis Borrowing costs are spiking across the developing world—fastest where resilience is weakest. Borrowing costs are up 0.64% in Africa and 0.7% in Asia Energy shock → higher yields → tighter liquidity. https://t.co/Pbx05iepX6 #DebtCrisis #OilMarkets...
Pretty sure we need to add $31 billion or so of WBD debt to this number. Paramount Skydance Restructures Debt Financing for Warner Bros. Discovery Deal https://t.co/KdxmGFAyON via @variety
U.S. mortgage rates jumped to 6.46% amid geopolitical tension, lifting yields on mortgage‑backed securities and tightening credit conditions for homebuyers. The surge reverses a brief decline that had raised hopes for a strong spring housing market in Greater Boston.
Kevin Hassett tells @MariaBartiromo the inflation from the oil-price shock will be temporary and should allow the Fed to continue cutting interest rates: "There are a lot of people who are currently at the Federal Reserve that understand that, that this...
If you routinely post a chart of the foreign holdings of US Treasuries but never post a chart of the foreign holdings of other global Sovereigns, you are missing the forest for the trees. https://t.co/GMjr60j0dV
Jeff Lipton of The Bond Buyer notes that the municipal bond market weathered Q1 volatility driven by the Iran‑Israel conflict and soaring oil prices. Issuance remained robust, posting an 8% year‑over‑year increase with March volume up 20% YoY. Yields rose...
Morningstar DBRS released its January 2026 Canadian commercial paper report, offering a detailed snapshot of short‑term debt issuance for the month. The publication includes data on total issuance volume, issuer credit ratings, and sector breakdowns. The report is publicly available on the...
KBRA has upgraded its outlook on the Chicago Transit Authority’s 2015‑2016 TIFIA loans to stable, affirming an AA‑minus long‑term rating. The change follows Illinois Senate Bill 2111, which injects over $500 million in annual sales‑tax revenue into the CTA starting FY 2026....
JPMorgan’s Bob Michele went on to say that the Fed’s 2% target is increasingly a “myth,” and that US central bankers are tacitly accepting a higher rate as acceptable. So even if inflation stays sticky, he doesn’t see rate hikes...
CPI hedging dominating now after 30y auction. Crude driven headline expected to print at an eye-popping 0.9% so it will be up to core to save us
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Open market operations (OMOs) are the Federal Reserve’s primary tool for adjusting the money supply by buying or selling Treasury securities. Permanent OMOs involve outright purchases or sales to shape long‑term rates, while temporary OMOs use repos and reverse repos...
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is accelerating the adoption of digital debt securities, with several banks issuing digitally native bonds on blockchain platforms. Notable issuances include First Abu Dhabi Bank’s $100 million note, Qatar National Bank’s $500 million digital bond, Doha Bank’s...
Congressional insiders see a shift toward a second, possibly third, budget‑reconciliation bill as the House eyes new revenue sources, including making municipal bonds taxable. The effort must clear the Senate's Byrd Rule and stay within the Ways and Means Committee's revenue focus....
TelevisaUnivision’s domestic arm, Univision Communications, has initiated a tender offer for its outstanding 8% senior secured notes due 2028. The offer allows eligible debtholders to tender up to a maximum amount, which has not been disclosed. By targeting the entire...
Unedic announced the issuance of a €3 billion social bond on 9 April 2026, marking one of the largest ESG‑linked financings in Europe this year. The proceeds are earmarked for affordable‑housing construction, renewable‑energy retrofits, and community development projects across the continent. The bond...
Another does of optimism after Israel agreed to direct talks with Lebanon. USTs reversed earlier losses and surged higher with long-end lagging before 30y auction. WIs 4.88
