Today's Bonds Pulse
US Treasury market steadies after Iran conflict sparks volatility
The US Treasury market has settled back to pre‑war calm following turbulence triggered by the Iran conflict, and expectations for bond‑market swings have fallen to near their lowest level of the year. Meanwhile, 30‑year Treasury yields slipped from a 19‑year high as optimism builds.
10-Year Clears 4.5% 'Ceiling,' Forcing Real Estate To Reckon With Rate Reality
U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields climbed to 4.6% in May, breaching the long‑watched 4.5% ceiling that many in commercial real estate consider a tipping point. The surge threatens the refinancing of roughly $930 billion of CRE debt maturing this year and adds cost pressure to large‑ticket loans. Despite the rate shock, loan origination activity rebounded, with CBRE’s Lending Momentum Index reaching a five‑year high and Q1 investment sales jumping 18% to $112.6 billion. Industry leaders warn that sustained higher yields could force lenders to demand equity cushions and reshape deal structures.
Bombardier Completes Redemption of All Outstanding 7.50% Senior Notes Due 2029
Bombardier Inc. announced the full redemption of its $750 million 7.50% senior notes due 2029. The repayment was financed with proceeds from a new notes offering and $250 million of cash from the company’s balance sheet. Redemption was processed through the Depository...
GHY: One Of The Best Global Bond Funds, But Not Much Local Currency EM Exposure
The PGIM Global High Yield Fund (GHY) delivers a 10.59% distribution yield and offers broad international diversification, with 45% of assets in the United States and a modest emerging‑market exposure. Leverage is used to boost returns, while the fund’s distribution...
Big Treasury Block Sales Drive ‘Capitulation’ Selloff in Bonds
Large block sales of U.S. Treasury futures, equivalent to roughly $15 billion of cash 10‑year notes, intensified a sharp selloff in the $31 trillion government debt market. Long‑end yields surged to their highest level since 2007 as investors priced in the risk...
Investors Fear Another Surge in Inflation
Global bond markets are spiking, with 30‑year government yields hitting record levels: Japan above 4%, the United States over 5%, and Britain nearing 6%. Higher yields translate into steeper borrowing costs for governments and push mortgage rates upward for consumers....
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Credit Rating of Spinnaker Insurance Company's Surplus Notes at BBB With a Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS confirmed a BBB credit rating with a Stable trend for Spinnaker Insurance Company's surplus notes. The rating reflects Spinnaker's rapid scale‑up, with gross written premiums projected at $1.1 billion in 2025—a 134% increase from 2021. Earnings stability stems from...
Treasury Yields Spike To Trump's Second-Term High, Sinking Gold And S&P 500
U.S. Treasury yields surged, with the 10‑year rate climbing to 4.46%—the highest level since before President Trump’s 2025 inauguration—and the 30‑year hitting a 19‑year peak of 5.2%. The rally was fueled by a conflict‑driven oil price rebound to $84.40 per...
Iran Tensions Lift US Treasury Yields, Curve Steepens to Decade-High Levels
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday as stalled US‑Iran talks and rising oil prices revived fears of higher borrowing costs. The 10‑year yield hit 4.60%, steepening the curve and echoing levels last seen in the early 2000s. Market participants linked...
How Soaring Treasury Yields Could Impact Your Finances
Treasury yields have surged to multiyear highs, with the 2‑year and 10‑year notes reaching their strongest levels since February 2025 and the 30‑year price climbing over 5% – the steepest rise since 2007. The rally is fueled by renewed inflation worries...
US Treasuries Losing the Control They Had
U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields have broken the historic 4.5% support, climbing toward a 4.75% overshoot as real yields rise, not inflation expectations. The surge follows net selling after the US‑China summit and heightened geopolitical tension around the Strait of Hormuz....
Bond Market Faces Vicious Feedback Loop as Oil Shock Drives Treasury Liquidation
U.S. Treasury yields surged to 4.62% on the 10‑year note, driven not only by inflation worries and a hawkish Federal Reserve but also by a wave of forced Treasury sales from foreign central banks coping with an oil‑price shock. China’s...
Japan Plans Massive Bond Issue to Fund Gasoline Subsidies, JGB Yields Spike to 2.8%
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi ordered Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama to draft a supplementary budget that will be financed by a multi‑trillion‑yen sovereign bond issuance for gasoline subsidies. The move sent Japan’s 10‑year government bond yield to 2.8%, its highest level...
TBUX Beats TLT as Short-Term Bond ETF Outshines Long-Term Treasury Fund
The T. Rowe Price Ultra Short-Term Bond ETF (TBUX) posted a 4.10% annualized return since its 2021 launch, far outpacing the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which has logged a 10‑year average loss of 1.37%. The divergence reflects...
BOJ May Ease QT Amid Rising JGB Yields
Macro: BOJ may temper QT as JGB selloff lifts yields and stresses fiscal funding. BOJ holds ~49% of JGBs; June rate risk raises volatility. Trade: shorten JGB duration. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
US Agg Forward Yield Peaks at 8.
Janney ISG's Real Yields model is noting the highest 12m forward return for the US Agg since Jan 2025: 8.6% (+/-1sd 7.8 - 9.3%) https://t.co/bNbKSL4Mad
The Muni Brief: NYC's Pied-À-Terre Tax>
New York City faces a $12.6 billion two‑year budget gap, with a $2.2 billion shortfall in FY2026 and a $10.4 billion deficit in FY2027. The city’s proposed pied‑à‑terre tax would surcharge properties over $5 million owned by non‑residents, targeting roughly 13,000 homes and generating...
30‑Year Treasury Yields Hit 2007 High, Stocks Uncertain
US 30-year Treasury yields just tapped their highest levels since July 2007. Not the best backdrop for stocks at highs, but rising rates don't always mean a correction either... $US30Y $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/xKBydmikrV
BoJ Selling Treasuries to Fund Yen Support?
Is the Bank of Japan selling treasuries to use the capital to support the Yen?
India Bonds Poised for Muted Opening Moves as Oil, Treasury Yields Still High
Indian government bonds are set for a flat start on Tuesday as both oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated. The benchmark 6.48% 2035 bond is expected to trade between 7.10% and 7.15%, barely moving from Monday's 7.1313% close....
30‑Year to Overnight Rate Spread Matches Historical Average
I know peeps love to doom and gloom about it but nothing that unusual about the current rate structure. Here the spread of 30s to overnight rates and its long run average. https://t.co/Tp7ouJMdsl
Rate Hike Hits 30‑yr Treasury Harder than AGG
A 1% rate rise implies a 10.7% annual loss on the 30yr Treasury bond. $TLT $AGG would lose 1.2% These are much softer losses, given higher starting yields, compared to 4-6 years ago. https://t.co/a2m9WEhBuj
S&P Global Launches $2 Bn Private Senior Notes for Mobility Global Spin‑off
S&P Global announced a $2 bn private offering of senior notes by its newly formed Mobility Global holding company, slated to finance the spin‑off of its mobility data business. The three‑tranche issuance, due 2029, 2031 and 2036, will also support a...
China Targets $882 Million Green Bond in Hong Kong
China is seeking to raise as much as 6 billion yuan ($882 million) in a green sovereign bond sale in Hong Kong next week https://t.co/KnRsdhfa5k
Shorter‑term Yields Reveal Future Fed Rate Path
Everyone is talking about UST Yields on 10 Yr Notes (4.607%) and 30 Yr Bonds (5.146%), but they should also start focusing on 2's (4.072%) and 5's (4.257%) which are not just reflecting current Fed Policy, but factoring in what...
Blue Owl Capital Issues Second $400 Million Investment‑Grade Bond in a Month
Blue Owl Capital’s private‑credit vehicle sold a $400 million, five‑year investment‑grade bond at a 2.3% spread over Treasuries, tightening by 0.3 percentage points from earlier talks. The issuance follows a similar $400 million sale to Pacific Investment Management a month earlier and...
UK 10-Year Yield Drops 11bps Since Quad3 High
US Tourists won't see it but UK 10yr Yield is already down -11bps from last week's #Quad3 Cycle High https://t.co/IPAWrZtXrh
Global Rates Surge; Japan's 10‑year Hits 29‑year High
Rates all over the world are rising sharply. Japan is at a 29 year high at 2.75% on the 10y - a big jump recently. https://t.co/VKPasXtuRE
IMF Urges BOE to Keep Rates Steady and Be Ready to Cut, Shaking Gilt Market
The International Monetary Fund told the Bank of England on Monday to keep its policy rate at 3.75% and retain flexibility to cut if needed. The guidance runs counter to market expectations of a possible hike and could depress gilt...
Lower Short Rates Could Steepen Curve; TIPS Safest
I suspect that any reduction in short rates would serve to exacerbate this weakness. Yield curve would simply steepen further. TIPS may be the only safe haven here.
The Bond Market Has a Warning for the Fed: Get Serious About Inflation and Potential Rate Hikes ASAP
The Treasury market, encompassing roughly $30 trillion of U.S. debt, is seeing yields climb sharply as investors dump bonds worldwide. Fed officials have a narrow window before the June policy meeting to signal a tougher stance on inflation, especially given heightened...
Yardeni Says Fed Must Raise Rates in July to Soothe Bond Vigilantes
Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, predicts the Federal Reserve will lift its policy rate by a quarter point in July to placate “bond vigilantes” after Treasury yields surged. The forecast comes as new Fed chair Kevin Warsh faces market...
China Joins Global Sell-Off of US Treasuries in March as Iran War Prompts Panic
Mainland Chinese investors sold a notable portion of their US Treasury bills in March, aligning with a broader wave of foreign holders trimming exposure to US government debt. The sell‑off was spurred by heightened geopolitical risk after the US‑Israel conflict...
Jeff Gundlach Says Fed Rate Cuts Are ‘Impossible’ Until Inflation Peaks
Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, told Fox News that a Federal Reserve rate cut is “just not possible” given a two‑year Treasury yield nearly 50 basis points above the Fed funds rate and a 3.8% CPI jump in April....
Pakistan Raises $255 Million with First Panda Bond, Expanding RMB Funding Options
Pakistan issued a three‑year, RMB‑denominated panda bond worth Rmb1.75 billion ($255 million) at a 2.5% coupon, the lowest rate it has secured on a sovereign issue. The deal, over‑subscribed five‑fold, adds a cheaper financing channel and marks a test for the renminbi’s...
Munis Cheapen Slightly After Friday's Larger Losses
Municipal bond yields slipped modestly on Monday, trimming the sharp declines seen Friday when inflation worries spurred broader bond market losses. Yield cuts were limited to 1‑3 basis points, with the deepest reductions at the long end of the curve,...
Hertz Vehicle Financing III LLC, Series 2026-1 and Series 2026-2: Presale Report
Hertz Vehicle Financing III LLC announced a presale offering of two senior unsecured note series, Series 2026‑1 and Series 2026‑2, slated for issuance later this year. DBRS, Inc. assigned provisional credit ratings to both series, providing an early gauge of credit quality. The notes...
Surging Bond Yields And Potential Warsh Fed Test Could Be The Sword Of Damocles For Stocks
The market’s recent resilience is being tested by sharply rising Treasury yields and the looming appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair. Ten‑year yields have breached the 4.5% resistance level while 30‑year yields topped 5%, raising concerns for housing...
S&P’s Mobility Unit to Sell $2B of Notes Ahead of Spinoff
S&P Global’s Mobility Global unit announced a $2 billion note offering with 3‑, 5‑, and 10‑year maturities, timed ahead of a planned mid‑2026 spin‑off. The unit also secured a $500 million senior unsecured revolving credit facility to bolster liquidity. Goldman Sachs, Morgan...
Quilter Appoints PIMCO for New Global Government Bond Fund
Quilter announced the launch of the Quilter Global Government Bond fund, appointing PIMCO as its manager. The fund is being added to Quilter’s WealthSelect Managed Portfolio Service as part of an ad‑hoc rebalance that shifts assets from passive government‑bond holdings...
Higher‑for‑Longer Rates Shatter Goldilocks Bond Outlook
Inflation came in hot, and the bond market officially lost its cool. 📈🔥 Yields spiked, rate cut bets got pushed back, and the "Goldilocks" narrative took a hit. Higher-for-longer is the new normal. BondMarket
Stablecoins Emerging as Marginal Treasury Buyers, Extending Durations
This narrative of stablecoins being the marginal buyer of Treasuries reflects the shift in long-dated duration in the market. 💯 -- Gordon Liao, who used to work at the Fed Board https://t.co/diucbra2xz
BofA CIO Hartnett Warns 30‑Year Treasury Breach Could Spark Yield Shock
Bank of America chief investment officer Michael Hartnett cautioned that the 30‑year Treasury’s recent close 11 basis points above the 5% “Maginot Line” could trigger a rapid yield surge. The warning draws parallels to past market dislocations and highlights a...
Merck Eyes $6 Billion in Seven-Part Bond Sale for Terns Deal
Merck & Co. is planning a $6 billion investment‑grade bond issuance to finance its purchase of Terns Pharmaceuticals. The debt will be offered in up to seven separate tranches, with the longest being a 30‑year note. The senior tranche is expected...
IG Credit Spreads
IG credit spreads basically back to 4Q2025 tights--in the 8th percentile of all history. https://t.co/SoC6HFk7mE
Ominous Bond Trades Point to Much Higher Rates
Options activity on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF surged on Friday as Treasury yields hit 4.599% for the 10‑year note, the highest in over a year. Trading volume in the TLT fund more than tripled the month’s average,...
BNP Paribas Says Bond‑Market Jitters Ease as Fed Rate‑Hike Odds Slip
BNP Paribas chief U.S. economist James Egelhof and rates strategist Guneet Dhingra told investors the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to favor a long‑term hold on rates in 2026, easing market anxiety. Their view coincides with Treasury yields retreating from...
IGOV: Bond Sell-Off On Prolonged Energy Issues Is Global As Expected
The iShares International Treasury Bond ETF (IGOV) carries a 7.43‑year effective duration, making it highly sensitive to rising global rates. A prolonged energy supply shock from the Hormuz crisis is pushing benchmark yields higher across the curve, amplifying potential capital...
Indian Bond Yields Spike to Six-Week High as Crude Oil Price Rally Jolts Markets
Indian government bond yields surged to a six‑week high on Monday as global Treasury yields rose and crude oil prices spiked. The benchmark 6.48% 2035 bond climbed to 7.14%, while the rupee fell to a record low of 96.31 per...
FX Daily: Bearish Yield Curve Steepening Hits Risk Assets
A bearish steepening of the U.S. yield curve is driving a sell‑off in long‑dated Treasuries, pushing 10‑year yields to their highest level since early 2025. The move follows a surprise 6% YoY rise in April PPI, the strongest inflation reading...
Bond Rout Deepens as Rising Oil Prices Stoke Inflation Fears
Global bond markets suffered a sharp sell‑off on May 18 as rising oil prices, spurred by a deadlock over the Iran‑related conflict, lifted Brent crude above $111 a barrel and reignited inflation concerns. Higher commodity costs pushed Treasury yields up,...