Today's Bonds Pulse
WBD bondholders approve covenant changes to clear path for Paramount merger
Warner Bros. Discovery obtained bondholder and lender consent to amend its fiscal covenants, removing a key obstacle to the $110.9 billion Paramount Skydance acquisition. The vote covered $16.6 billion of debt, with approval rates ranging from 79 % to 99 % across note classes. Paramount will pay a $2.50 cash bonus per $1,000 of debt, a cost it will assume entirely.
China Leads Foreign Dump of U.S. Treasuries, Holdings Fall to $9.25 Trillion
Foreign governments accelerated sales of U.S. Treasuries in March, with China reducing its holdings to roughly $652 billion—the lowest level since 2008. Overall foreign ownership slipped from $9.49 trillion to $9.25 trillion, raising fears of higher yields and tighter financial conditions.
ESENTIA Secures $2 Billion Investment‑Grade Bond Offering, Triple‑Agency Rating
ESENTIA Energy Development closed a $2 billion senior unsecured 144A/Reg S bond offering, oversubscribed 4.5 times and rated investment‑grade by Moody's, S&P and Fitch. The proceeds retire $2.1 billion of project debt and fund a new $600 million revolving credit facility, marking the Mexican...
U.S. Treasury Schedules $183 Billion in 2‑, 5‑ and 7‑Year Note Auctions
The U.S. Treasury on Thursday detailed this month’s auction plan for $183 billion of short‑term debt – $69 billion of two‑year, $70 billion of five‑year and $44 billion of seven‑year Treasury notes. Demand is projected to be modestly above average for the two‑ and...
Kennedy Wilson Prices $1.8 Billion Senior Notes to Fund Merger and Debt Repayment
Kennedy Wilson priced a $1.8 billion senior notes offering—$1.1 bn at 7.00% due 2031 and $700 m at 7.25% due 2033—aimed at redeeming existing debt, supporting a pending merger, and bolstering its credit facility. The transaction, structured under Rule 144A and Regulation S, underscores active...
India Sovereign Bonds Rally on Middle‑East Peace Hopes as Oil Falls to $110.60
Investors in Indian sovereign bonds pushed the market higher on Friday, buoyed by optimism that a Middle‑East peace deal could ease oil prices and lower Treasury yields. Brent crude slipped to $110.60, reinforcing the bond rally and widening the yield...
Treasury Yields Slip to 4.55% as US‑Iran Peace Hopes Ease Geopolitical Risk
U.S. Treasury yields fell across maturities on Monday, with the 10‑year note sliding to about 4.55% after a three‑basis‑point drop. The move reflects growing optimism that a diplomatic breakthrough could end the U.S.–Iran conflict, easing the geopolitical risk premium baked...
Congo Secures $850 Million 10‑Year Bond, Citigroup Leads Landmark African Sovereign Deal
The Republic of Congo issued an $850 million, 10‑year international bond at a 9.5% coupon, drawing $1.6 billion of orders. Citigroup acted as sole bookrunner, and the oversubscribed deal signals renewed investor appetite for African sovereign issuances.
BlackRock Adds 2036‑37 iShares iBonds ETFs to Tap Europe’s $2 Trn Income Market
BlackRock introduced four new iShares iBonds UCITS ETFs with 2036 and 2037 maturities, expanding its fixed‑maturity bond lineup. The funds, yielding 4.09%‑5.50%, aim to capture growing demand for predictable income in Europe’s $2 trillion market.
Junk‑Bond Rally Drives Spreads to 20‑Year Lows, Sparking Complacency Fears
Junk‑bond issuance surged this week, pushing high‑yield credit spreads to their lowest levels in almost 20 years. The rally gave junk debt a 1.6‑percentage‑point outperformance over investment‑grade bonds, prompting analysts to warn that investors may be growing complacent as risk...
State-Contingent Debt Premia May Be Lower than You Think
A new CEPR paper exploits two nearly identical French bonds issued in 1956—one fixed‑rate and one indexed to industrial production—to measure the state‑contingent debt premium in normal market conditions. The study finds an average realised premium of 108 basis points,...
Canadian Mortgage Rates May Climb As Bond Yields Hit 2010 High
Bank of Canada’s core inflation is easing, yet long‑term Government of Canada bond yields have surged to their highest level since 2010, with the 30‑year benchmark briefly topping 4.05%. BMO attributes the jump primarily to rising oil prices, even as...
Distressed Exchanges Lead to Hard Defaults, Not Chapter 11
Moody’s on distressed exchanges: > 35%+ end in hard default or another rx > Credit events after a rx typically hit within 3 years > 65% of last year’s defaults were distressed exchanges, not Ch. 11 The 2023 cohort is up next
Peace Deal Rumors Make For Mid-Day Reversal
Bond markets opened slightly weaker after headlines that Iran would retain its nuclear material, pushing the 10‑year Treasury to 4.62% and mortgage‑backed securities (MBS) down a quarter point. Around 1 pm, rumors of a draft Iran peace agreement sparked a rapid...
10-Year TIPS Auction Gets Real Yield of 2.169% to Soft Demand
The U.S. Treasury’s 10‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (TIPS) auction posted a real yield of 2.169%, signaling softer demand than in recent weeks. The higher yield suggests investors are pricing in elevated inflation expectations despite modest auction participation. Financial advisers continue...
The Bond Market Just Flipped the Script on Investors — Wall Street Is Acting Like Nothing’s Wrong
The bond market has abruptly turned bullish on higher rates, with the 10‑year Treasury yield climbing above 4.6% and the forward curve now pricing hikes instead of cuts. This shift follows a steep rise in inflation indicators, including a 6%...
Macro Matters: DWS’ Catrambone on Long-End Selloff, Warsh Fed
In this episode of Macro Matters, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Ira Jersey talks with George Katchenbohn, Head of Fixed Income for the Americas at DWS Group, about the recent surge in long‑term U.S. Treasury yields, now above 5% on the 30‑year, and...
Debt, Inflation, and Populism Renewed Inflation and Is Killing the Bond Market
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates steady as inflation remains above target and the U.S. fiscal deficit swells to an unprecedented 6.2% of GDP through 2026. Treasury yields have surged, with the 30‑year hitting a 19‑year high of...
5‑Year Yields Overpriced Amid Fed Pause or Hike
A bit too much anchoring to 3% neutral. I think 5s are too expensive for a Fed that is on pause and/or hiking in the next year
High Bond Yields Are What America Needs in the AI Era
Bloomberg argues that the recent climb in U.S. Treasury yields—now around 4.66% for the 10‑year—provides essential market discipline as the country rides an AI‑driven capital‑expenditure surge. While stocks sit near record highs, with the S&P 500 delivering a 23% compound annual...
TBUX Beats BND With 1.48% YTD Return, Offering Better Value in 2026
T. Rowe Price’s Ultra Short-Term Bond ETF (TBUX) posted a 1.48% year‑to‑date return, while Vanguard’s Total Bond Market ETF (BND) recorded a -0.93% return. The contrast underscores TBUX’s short‑duration focus as a potentially safer bet in an environment of climbing...
Britain’s Politicians Need to Worry Less About the Bond Markets – and More About the Bank of England | Daniela...
British politicians are urged to shift focus from bond‑market panic to the Bank of England’s role in shaping borrowing costs. The BoE has sold roughly £134 bn ($167 bn) of gilts since 2022, adding a 0.7 percentage‑point “Bailey premium” to UK debt rates,...
Admiral Markets Announces Buyback Offer for up to 8,476 Tier 2 Bonds
Admiral Markets AS announced a buyback offer for up to 8,476 Tier 2 bonds issued in December 2017, covering a total nominal value of €847,600 (≈ $932,000). The repurchase price is €101.02 per bond (≈ $111), consisting of the €100 face value, a €1...
Treasury Yields Resume Climb as Traders Monitor Inflation Risks
U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Thursday, with the 10‑year note reaching 4.6014% and the 30‑year bond edging to 5.1334%. The rise follows a brief pull‑back after multi‑decade highs and reflects renewed inflation concerns after Fed minutes hinted at further rate...
Philippines Treasury Auction Fails as All Bids Rejected, Yield Spike Triggers Liquidity Concerns
The Philippine Treasury rejected every bid for its 10‑year reissued bond auction on Tuesday, despite demand of PHP 33.7 billion (≈$602 million) against a PHP 30 billion (≈$535 million) offer. Investors demanded yields above 7.9%, far higher than recent secondary‑market rates, signaling stress in sovereign debt...
U.S. Treasury Yields Hit Multi‑Year Peaks, Dragging Down U.S. and Australian Markets
U.S. Treasury yields jumped to 4.67% on the 10‑year and 5.18% on the 30‑year, their highest levels in years, prompting sharp declines in major equity indices on both sides of the Pacific. Analysts cite stubborn inflation, Fed rate‑risk and Middle‑East...
Osisko Development Announces Proposed Offering of US$275.0 Million Aggregate Principal Amount of Convertible Senior Notes
Osisko Development Corp. announced a proposed private placement of up to $275 million of convertible senior notes due 2031, including a $225 million base offering and an optional $25 million over‑allotment. An affiliated investor may purchase an additional $50 million of notes in a...
What To Own Before A Bond Market Crisis
U.S. Treasury yields are climbing as deficits swell and foreign investors pull back, reviving concerns about a potential bond market shock. While a full Treasury crisis remains unlikely, the loss of overseas demand could strain liquidity and push rates higher....
U.S. 30‑Year Mortgage Rate Hits 6.75%, Highest Since July as Treasury Yields Surge
The average 30‑year fixed mortgage rate jumped 7 basis points to 6.75% on Tuesday, its highest level since July. The rise follows a 33‑basis‑point surge in Treasury yields over the past ten days, tightening housing affordability and prompting concern among...
Trump Gives Blasé Response to Rate Hike Possibility
President Donald Trump told reporters he will let incoming Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh act independently, even if the new leader leans toward raising rates. Market pricing now shows roughly a 60% probability of at least one rate hike in...
Battles to Shrink the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Begin
Incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh is pushing to reduce the central bank’s multitrillion‑dollar balance sheet, which swelled to a $9 trillion peak in 2022 before falling to $6.7 trillion after three years of runoff. Warsh argues that a smaller balance sheet would...
Rising Short-Term Rates Trigger Bond Sell‑off Amid Iran War
What drove the bond sell-off? Front-end interest rates are up sharply everywhere (blue), but long-term yields were - until this week - unresponsive (red). This disconnect was unsustainable and - as war with Iran drags on - markets capitulated this...
Sources: ECB Rate Hike Very Likely in June
Eurozone policymakers are converging on a June rate hike as inflation remains anchored above target, driven by persistently high energy costs. While the ECB is likely to raise rates in June, officials are reluctant to pledge a July increase, preferring...
UK Political Uncertainty Is Keeping Bond and FX Markets on Edge: Fortrade Review
UK bond and foreign‑exchange markets are under heightened pressure as political uncertainty drives a sharp rise in thirty‑year gilt yields and a gradual weakening of sterling against the dollar and euro. Analysts at Fortrade attribute the moves to ambiguous fiscal...
10‑Year Treasury Yield Tops 4.5%, Raising Stakes for Commercial Real Estate Financing
U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields breached the 4.5% ceiling, climbing to 4.6% and prompting a sharp reassessment of financing costs for commercial real‑estate investors. Industry leaders warn the surge could strain $930 billion of debt maturing this year and curb new loan...
USAA Liquidates $114.8 Million VictoryShares Core Intermediate Bond ETF Stake
USAA has sold all 2,421,191 shares of the VictoryShares Core Intermediate Bond ETF (UITB), cashing out a $114.8 million position that represented 7.3% of the fund’s AUM in the prior quarter. The move marks a sizable shift in the insurer’s fixed‑income...
China and Japan Slash U.S. Treasury Holdings to Multi‑Year Lows
China reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings to $652.3 billion, a 6% drop from February and the lowest level since 2008. Japan trimmed its portfolio by $47 billion to $1.191 trillion, pushing overall foreign ownership to $9.25 trillion. The sell‑off, driven by Middle‑East conflict‑induced currency...
The Long Spiral.
A sharp selloff in government bonds has pushed the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.687%, its highest intraday level since January 2025, while the 30‑year note rose to 5.19%, matching a June 2007 peak. Analysts like John Authers warn that...
10-Year Yield Eyes 4.75 After Violent Breakout, Opening Risk Toward 5%
U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields surged past the 4.75% mark, reaching 52‑week highs and the strongest levels since early 2025. The breakout was sparked by geopolitical tension after President Trump’s China trip failed to secure an Iran breakthrough, keeping Brent crude...
U.S. Debt Servicing Costs Set to Surge Over 15 Years
🇺🇸A sharp rise in U.S. government debt servicing costs is projected over the next 15 years. https://t.co/tq9kbPjquv
Term Premium Expansion: The Selective Capital Destruction Mechanism
The term premium—extra yield for long‑duration risk—has expanded as structural inflation pushes 30‑year Treasury yields above 5%, a threshold that many pension funds and insurers target. This rise occurs while short‑term rate futures stay flat, prompting a reallocation from high‑multiple...
Bond Market Tests New Fed Chair with 2007‑High Yields
The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.197% today — the highest since July 2007. Kevin Warsh gets sworn in as Fed Chair on Friday. That's not a coincidence. The bond market is testing him before he gets the keys. 🧵
30‑Year Treasury Yields Hit 20‑Year High on Inflation
Bloomberg: "Yields on the US Treasury’s longest-dated bond rose to the highest level in almost two decades as investor concerns mount that accelerating inflation will force central bankers to raise interest rates." #economy #markets #bonds
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The Bond Reckoning Is About to Meet the AI Mirage
Bond markets worldwide surged this week as U.S. wholesale inflation confirmed that war‑driven price pressures are persisting, pushing 30‑year yields above 4% in Japan, near 6% in the UK and over 5% in the U.S. Short‑term rates also rose, with...
Zero‑rate Era Produced Massive Bond Issuance Worldwide
Where are they now? Globally, bonds issued when interest rates were near ZERO, 2015–2021, though total global long-term fixed-income issuance (per SIFMA) was higher (~$158 trillion cumulatively). - Grok https://t.co/XCQZy1Rgxn
10-Year Clears 4.5% 'Ceiling,' Forcing Real Estate To Reckon With Rate Reality
U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields climbed to 4.6% in May, breaching the long‑watched 4.5% ceiling that many in commercial real estate consider a tipping point. The surge threatens the refinancing of roughly $930 billion of CRE debt maturing this year and adds...
Bombardier Completes Redemption of All Outstanding 7.50% Senior Notes Due 2029
Bombardier Inc. announced the full redemption of its $750 million 7.50% senior notes due 2029. The repayment was financed with proceeds from a new notes offering and $250 million of cash from the company’s balance sheet. Redemption was processed through the Depository...
GHY: One Of The Best Global Bond Funds, But Not Much Local Currency EM Exposure
The PGIM Global High Yield Fund (GHY) delivers a 10.59% distribution yield and offers broad international diversification, with 45% of assets in the United States and a modest emerging‑market exposure. Leverage is used to boost returns, while the fund’s distribution...
Big Treasury Block Sales Drive ‘Capitulation’ Selloff in Bonds
Large block sales of U.S. Treasury futures, equivalent to roughly $15 billion of cash 10‑year notes, intensified a sharp selloff in the $31 trillion government debt market. Long‑end yields surged to their highest level since 2007 as investors priced in the risk...
US Agg Forward Yield Peaks at 8.
Janney ISG's Real Yields model is noting the highest 12m forward return for the US Agg since Jan 2025: 8.6% (+/-1sd 7.8 - 9.3%) https://t.co/bNbKSL4Mad
Investors Fear Another Surge in Inflation
Global bond markets are spiking, with 30‑year government yields hitting record levels: Japan above 4%, the United States over 5%, and Britain nearing 6%. Higher yields translate into steeper borrowing costs for governments and push mortgage rates upward for consumers....