No Glut in Sight: Why Oil Bears Remain Mistaken—Despite OPEC+ V8 Easing the Taps in April

Summary

The episode explains that recent oil price gains are driven primarily by sharp production cuts in the United States and Mexico caused by an unusually harsh winter, rather than by OPEC+ policy changes. Geopolitical tension, including rumors of a possible strike on Iran, added further upside, though the alleged incident turned out to be a gas leak. OPEC+’s core eight members have decided to keep their voluntary cuts in place through Q1 2026, with only a routine review of March output expected at their upcoming virtual meeting. Overall, the hosts argue that the market’s bearish outlook is misplaced given the supply constraints and limited policy shifts.