Wheat at the Ceiling: Is This Rebound Real?

March SRW futures closed the week at 548.75 cents per bushel, up from 529.75 cents just days earlier. A 3.6 percent gain may not qualify as a breakout, but it marks the strongest weekly recovery since January and places the market directly beneath its long-term technical ceiling.

The rally feels constructive. Short positions have been trimmed. US exports are running ahead of last year. Global ending stocks were revised lower in the latest data release. Yet none of this erases the central reality hanging over the market: global production is sitting near record levels.

Wheat is rising into abundance.

That tension, between improving demand signals and an entrenched global supply cushion, defines the current regime.

Read Full Analysis on CropGPT

The Weight of 841 Million Tonnes

Global wheat production is forecast at 841.8 million tonnes. Which is historically heavy.

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Russia alone is projected to harvest between 89.5 and 91 million tonnes, with export potential near 44 million tonnes for 2025/26. January shipments reached 2.8 million tonnes, up 18 percent year on year. Logistical throughput remains intact. The Black Sea machine continues to run.

Argentina has added further pressure. A 27.8 million tonne crop, nearly 15 percent above last year, supports export projections of 17.5 million tonnes. Reduced export taxes have sharpened competitiveness into North Africa and Asia at precisely the moment Northern Hemisphere exporters would prefer breathing room.

Even within the European Union, softer exports are translating into higher domestic inventories. French soft wheat ending stocks have been lifted to 3.05 million tonnes, roughly 23 percent above last season.

The supply side is not flashing scarcity. It is signalling resilience.

A Subtle Shift in the Demand Pulse

And yet Chicago has lifted.

Part of the move is mechanical. Managed money reduced net short positions by nearly 13,000 contracts. When positioning becomes crowded, it does not take dramatic news to force an unwind.

But the export data carries more substance.

US wheat export commitments stand at 21.97 million tonnes, up 17 percent year on year. Shipments for the week reached 580,130 tonnes, a sharp week-on-week increase. Cumulative marketing year exports are running more than 18 percent ahead of last season.

The US export programme is operating at roughly 90 percent of the USDA’s full-year projection, broadly aligned with historical pace. In a world saturated with supply, maintaining competitiveness matters. The United States is not losing share.

At the same time, global ending stocks were revised down to 277.51 million tonnes. The reduction was modest in absolute terms, just 0.74 million tonnes month on month, but it fell below trade expectations. In a heavily shorted market, perception shifts can outweigh magnitude.

Demand has not tightened the balance sheet dramatically. But it has stabilised it enough to force reconsideration of the bearish consensus.

Technically, wheat is approaching a decisive zone.

The 200-day moving average sits near 551 cents, with resistance clustered between 551 and 555 cents. A sustained close above 555 cents would shift the broader structure from neutral to constructive and open the path toward the prior range high near 563 cents.

Below, 533 cents marks first support, followed by the 50-day average near 523 cents. The January base around 508 to 510 cents remains the structural floor.

For months, Chicago has oscillated between roughly 500 and 565 cents. The current rally is pressing against the upper boundary of that band. Without a decisive break, it remains a range recovery rather than a trend reversal.

The market is climbing, but it is climbing into resistance.

Global wheat sits in an uncomfortable equilibrium. Production is abundant. Export competition is intense. Stocks, while slightly reduced, remain historically elevated. Yet demand has not collapsed, and weather risks are quietly accumulating beneath the surface.

Is this the early stage of a structural shift, where incremental tightening begins to matter? Or simply another rally within a broad surplus regime?

The answer likely rests on whether 555 cents holds or gives way.

In our latest deep-dive pricing report, we examine:

The Black Sea Elasticity

How Russia’s projected 44 million tonnes of exports interacts with potential Siberian moisture deficits and what that means for forward availability.

India’s Yield Sensitivity

Why record acreage does not guarantee record production, and how grain-filling stress could alter South Asian trade flows.

The Technical Roadmap

The precise trigger levels above 555 cents and below 523 cents that define continuation, failure, and volatility expansion scenarios.

For the full breakdown of drivers, country-level developments, and risk scenarios, read the complete analysis on CropGPT.