Oil Rises and Asia Shares Slide as Iran War Enters Fifth Week

Why It Matters

The spike underscores how geopolitical tensions can instantly tighten energy supplies, raising inflation risks worldwide and pressuring both investors and consumers.

Key Takeaways

• Brent crude surged above $115 per barrel.
• Asian equity markets fell nearly 3% amid tensions.
• Strait of Hormuz disruption threatens 20% of oil flow.
• Food prices may rise as fertilizer shipments stall.
• Experts project Brent reaching $130 soon.

Pulse Analysis

The latest surge in Brent crude, now hovering around $113‑$115 per barrel, reflects the market’s reaction to the fifth week of the US‑Israel‑Iran confrontation. Traders cite the recent Houthi strikes on Israeli targets and Tehran’s threats to block the Strait of Hormuz as catalysts for the price jump, which positions this month for the largest oil gain on record. Asian stock indices mirrored the volatility, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi each sliding close to 3%, highlighting the direct link between energy shocks and regional equity performance.

Supply‑chain analysts warn that the narrowing of the Hormuz corridor could choke roughly one‑fifth of global oil and gas flows, while the Bab al‑Mandeb bottleneck threatens an additional 10% of oil shipments. Beyond fuel, the Gulf region supplies 20‑30% of the world’s seaborne fertilizer, meaning that prolonged closures could trigger a sharp rise in food prices, especially in vulnerable economies. Shipping experts note that oil already loaded before the crisis is only now reaching refineries, suggesting that price pressures may persist even if the waterway reopens.

Looking ahead, forecasts from industry consultants place Brent near $130 per barrel within weeks if threats to energy logistics remain unresolved. Such sustained high oil costs risk feeding broader inflation, eroding consumer purchasing power and potentially slowing global growth. Policymakers will need to balance diplomatic efforts to de‑escalate the conflict with measures to cushion economies from the cascading effects on energy, food, and transportation costs.