Tungsten 2026: Geopolitics Sets Global Tone

Why It Matters

The tightening supply and soaring prices threaten cost structures in aerospace, defense, and tooling, prompting governments and buyers to accelerate diversification away from China.

Key Takeaways

• China controls >75% of global tungsten supply
• US $12B Project Vault targets critical mineral stockpiles
• APT prices jumped from $900 to $1,900 per mtu
• Ferrotungsten rose to $210/kg, still below APT surge

Pulse Analysis

Geopolitical tension has become the dominant driver of tungsten markets, eclipsing traditional supply‑demand fundamentals. After the United States announced tariffs on a range of Chinese imports, Beijing responded with immediate export licences for APT and related products, effectively curbing shipments. The policy shift has forced downstream users—particularly in aerospace and defense—to reassess risk exposure and consider strategic stockpiling, a trend reinforced by Washington’s $12 billion Project Vault aimed at securing critical minerals across the supply chain.

The abrupt supply contraction sparked a dramatic price rally. Fastmarkets data show APT prices more than doubled within weeks, while ferrotungsten surged to $200‑$210 per kilogram of tungsten, a six‑fold increase from a year earlier. Higher concentrate costs have rippled downstream, delaying deliveries of tungsten carbide and powders and prompting some buyers to explore upstream integration, including direct ore purchases. New mining projects in Uzbekistan, the United States, and the United Kingdom are gaining momentum, yet long lead times mean they will not alleviate pressure until the late 2020s.

Looking ahead, the market is likely to remain tight throughout 2026. China’s dominance—over 75% of global output—combined with depleted inventories and limited near‑term new supply creates a structural deficit that recycling cannot quickly offset. Policymakers in North America and Europe are intensifying efforts to diversify sources, but the strategic nature of tungsten, essential for high‑performance alloys and defense applications, ensures that price volatility will continue to be shaped by geopolitical decisions rather than pure market mechanics.