At Any Rate
Global Commodities: A Month of Disruption
Why It Matters
Understanding these supply disruptions is critical for investors and businesses that rely on energy and metal inputs, as price spikes and inventory squeezes can ripple through the global economy. The episode highlights how geopolitical risk is rapidly reshaping commodity markets, making timely risk‑management decisions essential for anyone exposed to oil, gas, aluminum, or gold.
Key Takeaways
- •European gas storage at historic lows, under 20% full
- •No LNG vessels crossed Strait of Hormuz since conflict began
- •Oil prices surged above $110 as Iran tensions escalated
- •Aluminum supply cut 4% after UAE and Bahrain plant attacks
- •Gold fell despite safe‑haven appeal, pressured by equity deleveraging
Pulse Analysis
P. Morgan commodities briefing highlighted a precarious natural‑gas landscape in Europe. Seasonal demand has drained Northwest European storage to roughly 18% and the broader EU to 28%, the lowest levels in a decade aside from the 2018 cold snap.
LNG arrivals have barely shifted, with a modest uptick in Europe offset by increased Asian‑bound cargoes through the Suez Canal. \n\nOil markets reacted sharply to President Trump’s escalation warning, pushing WTI and Brent futures above $110 per barrel. Analysts warn that if the Hormuz corridor remains closed, OECD commercial crude inventories could hit their operational minimum by early May, eroding the buffer that normally stabilises prices. \n\nIn the metals sector, Iranian missile strikes on UAE and Bahrain aluminum smelters—accounting for about 4% of global output—could sideline up to 2 million tonnes of capacity for a year.
With LME stocks already thin (≈500,000 t outside China), analysts anticipate aluminum prices breaching $4,000 per tonne. Gold, traditionally a safe haven, slipped despite geopolitical risk, as equity deleveraging dampens risk‑off demand. The episode underscores how intertwined geopolitical shocks, supply bottlenecks, and inventory dynamics are reshaping commodity markets across gas, oil, and metals.
Episode Description
There has been no rest for commodities in the last 34 days. This week, Houthis have formally entered the conflict, while metals and energy infrastructure continued to be targeted by strikes. With an expanded geography of the war and no immediate off-ramp in sight, market volatility persists. In this episode, we discuss this week's updates and the month behind us.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy
Otar Dgebuadze, European Natural Gas
This podcast was recorded on April 2, 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5250119-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5252085-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5249648-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5249764-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5244760-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5248912-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.
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