Cash Still Wears the Crown 2 19 26 Cattle Chatter

Why It Matters

The analysis underscores that while cash prices stay robust, any disruption—whether from JBS labor talks or increased Mexican slaughter capacity—could quickly shift market dynamics, affecting profitability for cattle producers, processors, and futures traders.

Key Takeaways

• Cash cattle prices remain strong despite recent market dip.
• Potential JBS labor vote could disrupt supply and futures.
• Mexican slaughter capacity tripled, raising cross‑border cattle concerns.
• Beef‑on‑dairy carcass weights stay high, pressuring processors significantly.
• Traders urged to monitor leverage and basis amid volatile conditions.

Summary

The Cattle Chatter episode from the NCC Classic in Carney, Nebraska focused on the continued dominance of cash cattle prices while flagging several near‑term risks, including a pending labor vote at JBS’s Greeley plant, the impact of a closed U.S.–Mexico border, and the growing prevalence of beef‑on‑dairy carcasses.

Brad Kimma of Koma Barl noted that a new discount structure introduced three weeks ago has made the cash market “healthier,” with feed‑lot leverage keeping cattle scarce and pushing basis levels higher. He highlighted isolated trades—$250 in the North and $249 in Texas—as evidence that, absent external shocks, cash prices are likely to stay elevated for a fourth consecutive week.

When asked about the JBS vote, Kimma warned that a negative outcome could trigger a seven‑day notice walk‑out, potentially curbing the plant’s 5,400‑head daily capacity and rattling futures. He also relayed a conversation with a Mexican slaughter‑house contact who confirmed that Mexican facilities have tripled output by running 24‑hour shifts, suggesting a new cross‑border supply channel despite the border closure.

For producers and traders, the message is clear: cash remains king, but volatility from labor negotiations, unconventional Mexican processing, and oversized beef‑on‑dairy carcasses could compress margins. Monitoring leverage, basis differentials, and any labor‑related announcements will be critical to navigating the next few weeks of price action.

Original Description

Cash is still king in the cattle market, with Northwest Iowa seeing trades at $250, reinforcing the strength of negotiated cash. Attention now turns to Friday, which brings two potential market movers: the latest Cattle on Feed report and another vote at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado. On this week’s Cattle Chatter, Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek breaks down the strong cash movement, the impact of heavier cattle, and answers a listener question about cattle in Mexico and whether more are now being processed south of the border.