Copper Price Forecast at $5.75 in H2 2026: RBC
Why It Matters
The forecast underscores copper’s potential as a resilient hard‑asset hedge, prompting investors to reassess exposure to miners poised to capture price upside amid supply constraints and geopolitical risk.
Key Takeaways
- •Copper near all‑time highs despite higher energy price pressures.
- •Supply shortfalls from 2025 shutdowns drive price upward.
- •Middle‑East sulfur disruption could tighten African copper belt output.
- •RBC forecasts $5.75/lb in H2 2026, $6.00 in 2027.
- •Hudbay, Capstone, First Quantum highlighted as upside candidates.
Summary
RBC Capital Markets mining analyst Sam Kittindon outlined a bullish outlook for copper, projecting prices at $5.75 per pound in the second half of 2026 and edging higher to $6.00 in 2027. The forecast hinges on persistent supply constraints, lingering shutdowns from 2025, and the geopolitical backdrop of the Persian Gulf conflict, which could influence investor sentiment toward hard assets.
Kittindon emphasized that global copper supply is lagging demand, with mine closures and limited new capacity keeping inventories tight. A less‑discussed risk is the reliance of the African copper belt on sulfur sourced from the Middle East; any prolonged disruption could further tighten production and bolster prices. Despite a weaker global growth outlook from the IMF, demand fundamentals remain solid, supporting the price trajectory.
Specific company examples were highlighted: Hudbay’s dual exposure to gold and its upcoming Arizona “Copper World” project, Capstone’s recovery from Chilean operational setbacks, and First Quantum’s tentative restart of its Panama mine following government approval to process existing stockpiles. These firms are positioned to benefit from the anticipated price environment.
For investors, the analysis signals that copper’s near‑record levels may be sustainable, driven by supply‑side pressures and geopolitical factors. Allocation to miners with strong cash flow, diversified metal exposure, and projects poised to ramp up production could offer outsized returns as the market tightens.
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