FBN Releases 2026 Planting Intentions Report

Why It Matters

The acreage outlook directly influences supply expectations, shaping corn and soybean price trajectories and informing hedging strategies for producers and traders.

Key Takeaways

• FBN forecasts 96.9M corn acres, highest estimate yet
• Soybean planting projected at 84.6M acres, below market expectations
• Survey shows farmers less likely to shift corn to soybeans
• Fertilizer price spikes may later influence acreage decisions
• USDA report could surprise, impacting grain price direction

Summary

FBN released its 2026 Planting Intentions Report on Tuesday, a week before the USDA’s Prospective Plantings data. The survey, conducted with over a thousand respondents, offers an early look at how U.S. corn and soybean acres may be allocated for the upcoming marketing year.

The report projects 96.9 million corn acres and 84.6 million soybean acres, placing the corn estimate 2.5 million acres above the Thomson Reuters average and the highest forecast among market participants. The soybean figure is modestly lower than expectations, suggesting farmers are not rotating as aggressively out of corn as many analysts predicted, despite rising fertilizer costs.

Cody Bills of FBN emphasized that the numbers reflect a “snapshot in time” taken before fertilizer price spikes fully materialized, and that the survey methodology combines three independent data‑science analyses to produce a consensus figure. He warned that a larger‑than‑expected USDA release could pressure grain prices, especially given the current risk premium from geopolitical tensions and ethanol demand.

For traders and agribusinesses, the higher corn acreage outlook signals potential downward pressure on corn futures if supply exceeds market forecasts, while the relatively restrained soybean shift may keep soybean prices steadier. Stakeholders should monitor the USDA report for deviations that could reshape basis levels and regional price dynamics.

Original Description

Ahead of the USDA's Prospective Plantings report release, FBN has released their 2026 Planting Intentions Report. Their survey says corn acres will hold stronger than expected while soybean acres will be higher this year. Meantime, wheat and cotton acres could face pressure. Cody Bills with FBN joins us to discuss. View their full report here: https://www.fbn.com/direct/resources/planting-intentions-report?srsltid=AfmBOooYQ4qGtPbeQ5YkilXgJCaY1D4g5Sf9UQO-kTZEcKXf7e-FIooU