Mar 25 | Closing Market Report
Why It Matters
Year‑round E15 and looming RVO decisions provide limited ethanol relief, while soaring diesel, fertilizer, and nitrogen costs threaten farmer profitability and could reshape planting decisions for 2026.
Key Takeaways
- •EPA approves year‑round E15 use, supporting ethanol market.
- •Expected RVO announcements could impact corn and soybean prices more.
- •Diesel and fertilizer costs surged 40%+ due to Middle East conflict.
- •Early‑planted soybeans show herbicide injury but limited yield loss.
- •Fall nitrogen prices may exceed $1,000/ton if Iran war persists.
Summary
The March 25 closing market report covered several intertwined topics: the EPA’s decision to allow year‑round E15 ethanol blending, pending Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) announcements, the ripple effects of the Middle East conflict on commodity prices, and recent research on early‑planted soybeans and herbicide injury.
Greg Johnson of TGM noted that while the E15 waiver is supportive, it isn’t a bullish catalyst, and the upcoming RVO decision on Friday could move corn and soybean markets more dramatically. Corn futures have risen roughly 9% and soybeans 8% since the conflict began, yet diesel and urea prices have jumped over 40%, eroding much of the price gain. Bloomberg’s acreage survey projects 94.17 million corn acres and 85.57 million soybean acres, but input‑cost volatility may push actual corn plantings below 94 million acres.
University of Illinois economists warned that fall nitrogen prices could top $860 per ton, potentially breaching $1,000 if the Iran‑related war continues, underscoring long‑term fertilizer cost concerns. Meanwhile, a U of I herbicide study found that PO‑based premixes (e.g., Authority, Fierce) cause noticeable early‑season soybean injury, whereas products like Preview and Prefix showed minimal damage; levo seed treatments produced stand loss in the first year but limited yield impact overall.
The combined outlook suggests modest policy support for ethanol, but heightened input costs and geopolitical uncertainty will pressure farmer margins and may depress planting intentions. Stakeholders are urged to lock in diesel and fertilizer contracts where possible and to select herbicide programs that mitigate early‑season injury, especially as markets await the RVO ruling and any de‑escalation in the Middle East.
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