Mar 31 | Closing Market Report

Why It Matters

The report signals limited price movement for corn and soybeans absent external shocks, while new renewable‑fuel mandates and AI‑enabled financing could reshape demand and planting decisions for the 2026 season.

Key Takeaways

• USDA reports 95.3M corn acres, down 3% YoY.
• Soybean planting intentions rise 4% to 84.7M acres.
• Corn and soybean futures close marginally higher, remain rangebound.
• EPA's renewable fuel volume obligations boost corn and soybean demand.
• AI-driven loan underwriting promises faster, cheaper farm financing.

Summary

The March 31 closing market report covered the USDA’s prospective plantings and grain‑stocks releases, the EPA’s final renewable‑fuel volume obligations, and a brief hog‑inventory update. Todd Gleason of the University of Illinois Extension highlighted that 95.3 million acres of corn are slated for 2026—3% below last year—while soybean intentions climb 4% to 84.7 million acres. Grain‑stock numbers came in close to expectations, leaving corn and bean futures only marginally higher and still confined to a tight price range.

Naomi Bloom of Total Farm Marketing explained that the acreage report, rather than the quarterly stocks, drove the modest market moves. Corn futures settled at $4.57‑$4.84 per bushel and soybeans at $11.71‑$11.86 per bushel, reflecting limited new fundamentals. The EPA’s 2026‑27 renewable‑fuel standards, praised by the Renewable Fuels Association and corn growers, promise a fresh demand source for both corn and soybeans. Meanwhile, the hog‑pigs report showed a slight inventory dip but a record litter size, indicating ongoing productivity gains.

Industry voices underscored the broader context: Jeff Cooper (RFA) called the EPA rule the “highest ever” volume target; Jed Bower (NCGA) linked it to a summer E15 waiver benefiting corn growers; Scott Mezer (ASA) hailed it as a “big win” for soybeans. On the financing side, Farmer Mac’s chief economist Blaine Nelson highlighted AI‑driven loan underwriting as a catalyst for faster, lower‑cost credit to producers.

The combined outlook suggests a market poised for stability unless weather shocks, geopolitical tensions, or further policy shifts inject new volatility. Renewable‑fuel mandates could lift corn and soybean demand, while improved credit access may bolster planting decisions. For traders and growers, the near‑term focus remains on weather patterns and fund positioning rather than dramatic price swings.

Original Description

- Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com

- WILLAg News Update

- March USDA Hogs & Pigs Report Analysis

- Don Day, DayWeather.com

Program Overview

• Program Name: Closing Market Report

• Date of Broadcast: March 31, 2026

• Host: Todd Gleason from the University of Illinois Extension

• Network: Illinois Public Media (available online at willag.org)

• Focus: The show provides comprehensive coverage of agricultural markets, industry news, livestock updates, and weather forecasts tailored for the farming community.

Program Elements

• Ag Markets Analysis: The core of the episode focuses on the release of the USDA's Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. Host Todd Gleason details the survey results, noting a 3% decrease in intended corn acres and a 4% increase in intended soybean acres compared to the previous year. Guest Naomi Blohm from totalfarmmarketing.com provides expert analysis, explaining that the reports fell mostly within expectations and failed to trigger any dramatic market shifts, leaving corn and soybean prices relatively range-bound.

• WILLAg News Update: This segment covers several key agricultural news items:

• The EPA's release of the final renewable fuel standard volume obligations for 2026 and 2027, which was well-received by major agricultural groups for creating demand for biofuels.

• The EPA's action to remove problematic sensor requirements for diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) systems, aimed at preventing equipment downtime during spring planting.

• A report by Mike Davis featuring Blaine Nelson from Farmer Mac, discussing how AI and digital technology are making farm loan underwriting faster, more transparent, and less costly.

• USDA March Hogs and Pigs Report Analysis: The program reviews the latest livestock data, highlighting a slight year-over-year increase in total hog inventory despite a drop in the breeding herd. University of Missouri agricultural economist Jason Franken provides commentary, noting that producers are relying on increased efficiency (record pigs per litter) to manage supply as they financially recover from 2023 losses.

• Honoring WWII Flying ACE "Bud" Anderson: A unique segment featuring audio from General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, honoring Colonel Clarence Emil "Bud" Anderson, a highly decorated World War II fighter pilot who recently passed away at age 102. Gleason uses the moment to encourage listeners to support and thank veterans.

• Ag Weather Forecast: The show concludes with a weather outlook from Don Day of Day Weather. Day forecasts a wet start to April with significant rainfall expected across much of the Corn Belt, heavy spring snows in the northern states, and beneficial moisture for the western U.S., though some areas in the central plains will remain dry.

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