Where Will The Fertilizer Come From? Josh Linville of StoneX Group

Why It Matters

Supply constraints and price volatility in key nitrogen fertilizers threaten farm profitability, making effective risk‑management and domestic production incentives essential for U.S. agriculture.

Key Takeaways

• Fertilizer markets remain largely flat‑price, retail‑focused in the United States this season
• Futures trading liquidity improving but still far behind grain markets
• Urea (URA) imports face 5.1 Mt shortfall, stressing supply chains
• Geopolitical disruptions cut Middle‑East and Russian fertilizer exports
• Anhydrous ammonia stays cheapest nitrogen, could reshape farmer demand

Summary

The Future of Agriculture podcast episode features StoneX Group’s fertilizer vice‑president Josh Linville discussing the current state of nitrogen and phosphate markets, focusing on supply‑demand imbalances, price volatility, and the role of futures contracts.

Linville explains that the U.S. fertilizer market is still dominated by flat‑price, retail‑oriented transactions, but liquidity in futures has been improving, though it remains a fraction of grain contracts. He highlights a looming 5.1 million‑ton shortfall in Urea (URA) imports, with half traditionally sourced from the Middle East and a quarter from Russia, and notes that domestic anhydrous ammonia production is abundant yet under‑utilized due to financing constraints.

A recurring theme is the “NOLA is to fertilizer as Chicago is to corn” analogy, underscoring New Orleans as the pricing hub. Linville points out that U.S. prices are currently $60‑$70 per ton cheaper than global benchmarks, a discount driven by ahead‑of‑schedule imports and sluggish farmer demand. He also warns that if farmers shift from URA to cheaper anhydrous ammonia or UAN, those markets could tighten and price‑adjust rapidly.

The discussion signals heightened risk for growers who must hedge against volatile inputs while navigating limited import capacity. It also suggests that a resurgence in domestic ammonia production could rebalance the market, but only if financing and policy barriers are addressed, making futures hedging and supply diversification critical strategic moves for the agricultural sector.

Original Description

Follow Josh on X: https://x.com/JLinvilleFert

StoneX website: https://www.stonex.com

YouTube Videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLseYUvaoguNifbmL84zX3plTPt4HGt-MF

Josh Linville is the vice president of fertilizer at StoneX Group Inc. Growing up in northwestern Missouri on a family farm growing tobacco crops and cattle, Josh brings a unique perspective to the fertilizer markets. With over 20 years of experience in this industry, Josh has operated in roles that have given him market perspective as a North American Logistics Specialist, US-based Nitrogen Producer, and General Manager of Commerce in Melbourne, Australia. Josh and his team, which spans the globe, have worked hard to educate the market on how to use the fertilizer futures markets to not only offset price risk, but also to be able to sell produce to farmers much sooner. for fertilizer producers to start their physical sales programs.