Core Inflation Stable, Yet Energy Shock Drives Airfare Surge
Core inflation in March was relatively muted despite a massive surge in overall inflation due to the Iran war. But there are signs that the energy shock is rippling across the economy. Airfares, for example, notched a 2.7% gain for the month and are up 15% from a year earlier. https://t.co/MzShkzMmCr @nytimes
Fed's Inflation Woes Predate Iran War, Stalled at 2%
NEW: Long before the Iran war began, the Fed had an inflation problem, as Feb's PCE data confirms today. Progress on reaching the 2% target had essentially stalled out, while a closely-watched metric tracking ex-housing services inflation was stuck well...
Fed Minutes Reveal Split on Iran Risk, Lean Toward Hikes
March's Fed minutes show broad support for a patient approach to forthcoming rate decisions, but splintering views over what the biggest risk from the Iran war will be. A vast majority of policymakers now expect slower progress toward the 2%...
Fed Can Pause; War‑Driven Inflation Expected to Fade
Williams of @NewYorkFed echoes Powell’s view this morning that the Fed can afford to wait and see the economic impact of the Iran war before making any policy moves. He expects the burst of inflation stemming from the war to fade...
Powell: Fed Monitors Private Credit, Won’t Eliminate Risk
On private credit, Powell said it was a "relatively small part of a very large asset pool" that the Fed was watching "super carefully" About financial regulation more broadly, Powell said the Fed "shouldn't be trying to regulate risk out of...
Powell: Fed Will Look Through Energy Shocks, Watch Expectations
Powell on Monday reiterates that the Fed typically look through energy shocks, but he warned that "a critical, essential aspect of that is you have to carefully monitor inflation expectations" This recent piece w/ @bencasselman explains why https://t.co/eabY4kFd9d @nytimes
Private Credit Risks Grow as DOL Targets 401(k)s
Concerns around private credit are mounting just as the Trump admin is expanding access to it Investors, lobbyists and lawmakers are now awaiting the rollout of a Dept of Labor proposal that would include alternative assets in 401ks https://t.co/2j9Bg67jIU @arappeport @nytimes https://t.co/jLIP238LNF
Americans Trust Fed to Tame Inflation Amid New Iran Shock
NEW w/ @bencasselman: Throughout a series of economic shocks that pushed up consumer prices in the past five years, Americans maintained faith that the Fed would eventually get inflation under control. The war with Iran presents another shock that is...
Fed’s Waller Urges Caution, Holds Rates Amid Iran Conflict
"Caution is warranted," Waller tells @steveliesman on Friday after voting with the majority at the Fed this week to hold rates steady as the Iran war upends the economic outlook. "It doesn’t mean that I’m going to stay put for the...
Fed Likely Holds Rates as Iran War Fuels Uncertainty
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at a tenuous moment for the economy as the Iran war drags on. The conflict is expected to amplify internal divisions, injecting yet more uncertainty into the debate around when the Fed...
Iran Conflict Deepens Fed Rate Split, Fuels Inflation Worries
Fed officials were already before divided the Iran war over what to do about rates. Now the conflict threatens to entrench those positions and make it even harder to reach a consensus "Both sides are going to be able to say...
Warsh's Fed Chair Hopes Dashed by DOJ Appeal
For a moment on Friday, Kevin Warsh was on a glide path to becoming the next chair of the Fed. But within the hour, a possible pathway for him narrowed about as quickly as it had emerged, as the Justice...
Iran Conflict Spikes Energy, Stalls Fed’s Inflation Fight
The Fed was already struggling to get inflation back to 2% before Trump opted for an all-out confrontation with Iran. Now, elevated energy prices, if sustained, risk delaying that progress further, entangling the central bank in yet another challenging debate...
Rising Oil Prices Threaten U.S. Recession Amid Middle East Conflict
Surging oil prices have sparked fears that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could inflict steep financial costs on Americans "I am very concerned this could tip us into a recession if it persists," one economist tells @nytimes https://t.co/VkqGBNMgAR @TonyRomm...
Fed Stuck as Jobs Slip and Inflation Rises
In an interview with @nytimes, @Austan_Goolsbee describes February's jobs report as a "tough" one, although he stressed the importance of not overreacting to one month of data. He conceded that the combination of a weakening labor market and higher inflation risks...
February Jobs Data Deepens Fed Split over Rates
February's jobs report will certainly stoke divisions at the Fed. Some officials are highly concerned about the health of the labor market and willing to cut rates to support it. Others seem more attuned to the risk posed by inflation,...
Fed Likely to Hold Rates, May Tighten if Inflation Persists
NEW: Beth Hammack of @ClevelandFed tells @nytimes that with inflation too high and rates at neutral, the Fed should be on hold for "quite some time." The next move may also not necessarily be down: "If we don’t see inflation...
Waller Doubts AI Fuels Current Productivity Surge
Waller on Monday pushes back on the idea that the ongoing productivity boom is currently being driven by AI. "A.I. at some point will clearly kick in down the road, but I don't think it's going to be in the...
Waller Open to Steady Rates in March if Labor Stabilizes
Waller, a Fed governor who dissented against January's rate cut pause, said he is open to holding rates steady in March if the labor market continues to stabilize. He also doesn't expect the Supreme Court ruling to impact his rate...