Diane Swonk - Latest News and Information
Chief economist and prominent U.S. macro voice. Posts on employment, inflation, monetary policy, and growth/inflation outlooks.
Nick Bloom and Steve Davis and your amazing colleagues - thank you for your research on WFH and humane shifts in work schedules that revealed the benefits of such shifts. Here is a new paper I have been following the emergence of since I saw Nick in a video talking with policy makers in the UK. WFH boosts productivity and reproduction.
Participants at the FOMC meeting rounded the wagons around Powell at a difficult moment for Fed independence. What looked like a dovish pause on the surface had hawkish undertones. Risks to meeting participants forecasts were to the downside on growth,...
My take on the difficultly navigating the splintering within Fed leadership amidst tension of inflation and the labor market.
My full write up on inflation. Important to remember that we can not sustain or obtain full employment unless inflation is detailed. For those arguing the #FOMC should cut to shore up employment and ease inequality. Cuts in late 2024...
More to come but things to keep in mind… CPI headline figures of 2.4% are artificially suppressed by the lapse in data collection during the six week government shutdown. Under the hood, there is a disturbing acceleration in core service sector...
My monthly takes a look at oil price scenarios Inspired by Jurassic Park and Jeff Goldblum’s explaination of chaos theory. This hit close to home. Made my mom cry - should have warned her about the ending. The Butterfly Effect...
Private debt markets have been struggling for some time. These are nonbank lenders, largely in the private equity space, although they do rely upon bank credit. This is one of many fragilities in the financial market and the economy more...
🔥 My colleague Meagan Martin-Schoenberger has updated the producer price index data released today. The index showed the largest increase in core goods (wx food and energy) prices since early 2022; profit margins soared to their highest on record, with...
#NABE2026 Chicago Fed Pres Austan Goolsbee third day of policy meeting. More worried about the risks to inflation, especially the persistence of core service sector inflation, which shouldn’t be affected by tariffs. This is after stripping out shelter costs....
#NABE2026 AI and the federal deficits - Wendy Eldeberg formerly of CBO and now Brookings notes that AI could diminish taxable incomes? Reality nuanced due to taxes on workers could diminish. 🤯 AI boom could create a painful labor market...
#NABE2026 Dan Yergin Vice Chairman of S&P500 expert on energy market. N Dakota produces more oil than Venezuela. We have to question reserves in VZ - over half requires $70-$80 per barrel to produce. Too expensive. Skeptical about how...
Need to know where we are relative forecast-based policy setting. Neutral rate est at what it was a little less than 3%. The push to make policy on forecasts is something the administration’s nominee to replace Chair Powell has argued....
Potential pivot by @federalreserve Gov Chris Walller - IF the next retail sales & labor data continue to show signs of further improvement, like we saw in Jan, then would support a pause in rate cuts after dissenting in Jan....
New tariffs levied - twice in less than 24 hours. Now Section 122 used to levy 15% across the board instead of 10%. That gets the effective tariff rate closer to what it was before the ruling by the Supreme...
Here is my write up of all the data and the Supreme Court ruling on tariff legality. https://kpmg.com/us/en/articles/2026/december-2025-pce-and-gdp.html
