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Every morning
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Tuesday recap
1/ Markets now think the Fed is more likely to raise rates than cut them this year. A rate hike is not my baseline scenario, but I see the risks rising, for the following reasons. (Link to column in next post). https://t.co/fsMqz3mgzp
"Trump just authorized Americans to trade Iranian oil for the first time since Clinton banned Americans from doing so in 1995." @petereharrell
If gasoline hits $4 now, that's still a third less than the $6 it hit in 2008 in today's dollars ($4 in nominal dollars then).
How high does oil have to get for recession probability to top 50%? $138. That's the average answer in our latest survey of economists, who generally see an increase in inflation but little impact on growth from the Iran war....
My boring take, as a so-far failed vibe coder: AI is more likely to keep lots of software developers employed making way more , and better, software than ever, than to put them out of work because we consume...
How to interpret the rise in bond yields across the G10? Here's a guess: the market has priced in moderate oil disruption that marginally raises upside inflation risks and lowers probability of central bank easing this year. If at some...
This is the popular narrative but it's not correct. Inflation de-anchored in the late 1960s under pressure from Great Society & Vietnam spending and Martin acquiescing to LBJ's pressure. Inflation was kept artificially low in the early 1970s by wage...
When you ask AI (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, etc.) to execute a task, do you say "please"?
This NJ property tax credit for almost all seniors is the sort of upside down priority I was thinking of in my column. It notes the elderly are physically and financially healthier than ever, yet their needs keep taking priority...
My colleague @DavidUberti and I answered reader questions about Iran, oil and war (or, we at least tried to ...) https://t.co/eKZls2GgE1
Puzzling. In risk-off market yields go down, but they're flat to up, globally (so not "sell-America"). Central banks seen as less likely to ease. True, until you get non-linearities and recessions (e.g. summer of 2008, oil up sharply and ECB...
Yeeps: @Bob_McNally of @RapidanEnergy "Gulf War III has disrupted ~20% of global oil supply for nine days and counting – more than double the previous record set during the Suez Crisis of 1956-57, which disrupted just under 10%."
Hey energy experts, what's the lag, in days, from a change in wholesale gasoline futures to retail (AAA average) prices? And what's a good rule of thumb on the spread/mutiple between the two? (Answer in DM's if you prefer.)
Energy Sec Wright: “Trump administration has been all in on lowering energy prices, and I would say quite successfully”. In fact, electricity and utility gas prices rose notably in Trump's first year, by more than in Biden's last. Gasoline now...
Why the oil shock won't cause stagflation or recession: #1 U.S. less energy intensive than in past price spikes. Gasoline consumption lower today in in 2007. #2. U.S. net petroleum exporter. Therefore mildly positive for terms of trade. (link to...
