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In a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, "that means $250-$300 price of oil (Brent)" argues @Rory_Johnston. Because a giant price shock is needed to destroy 15 million barrels per day of demand $220+ "almost guaranteed." https://t.co/fnf6ENgf0N https://t.co/yakBRYsHgc
The largest energy supply shock in history just hit as the entire global economy had been riding high on the most energy intensive tech ever (AI), @Rory_Johnston argues. "I hope I'm wrong." Apple🔊https://t.co/hBJ1sBFqgN Spotify📽️https://t.co/fnf6ENfHbf https://t.co/OJPNLB003V
It's not just the oil alarmists who are scared. Even the optimistic oil analysts, who make fun of the alarmists, are all "terrified..." 🛢️🛢️🛢️ "That's why I think Trump has to end it" - @Rory_Johnston Apple🔊 https://t.co/hBJ1sBFqgN Spotify📽️ https://t.co/fnf6ENfHbf https://t.co/HdNNaefrAk
This is from like two hours of my work as an amateur but in my opinion the sulfur squeeze could be immense and Cavvy Energy has the most exposure to sulfur prices
In just two weeks, Middle East Oil on Water has collapsed by 175 Million Barrels. "Truly staggering" - @Rory_Johnston (it's his chart). "It’s impossible to overstate the magnitude of this dislocation." 1/3 https://t.co/iYwEtzNH9E
The numbers are clear: Middle East oil crisis is already 3x WORSE than the UNREALIZED FEAR in 2022 @Rory_Johnston explains: in April 2022 fear was 3 Million Barrel per day (mb/d) shut in for Russian Crude (DIDN'T HAPPEN). In 2026...
OUT NOW - how @Rory_Johnston sees it: Unless the Strait of Hormuz opens soon, $220 oil and a recession is "almost guaranteed." $300+ oil & Global Depression are possible. Apple🔊 https://t.co/hBJ1sBFqgN Spotify📽️ https://t.co/fnf6ENfHbf 1/3 https://t.co/gvV2pR4qXu
Important - U.S. admin says it has no plan to enact an oil export restriction
OUT NOW - how @BobEUnlimited sees it: - the repricing of the oil shock into markets is "just getting started" - higher inflation or lower growth, BOTH scenarios are bad for stocks Apple https://t.co/tA37rAtLtM Spotify https://t.co/wRcaaAtWld YouTube https://t.co/RDM5IJfiVx https://t.co/0Zt9BALTn7
Not looking good. Crude exports down between 25% and 67% from the Middle East, depending on country
Powell just OMITTED this line about "disinflation in the service sector" (vs January press conference) https://t.co/knGJ2D4YW2
OUT NOW - @SquirrelMacro loves owning stocks but keeps seeing reasons to lighten his bag, from: - mega IPO issuance of money-losing companies - cracks in software & private credit - U.S. consumer weakening Apple https://t.co/qZiDfSFK94 Spotify https://t.co/zqeGlNjrbb https://t.co/53hmkQuqqX
Yet another piece of news that is bullish crude (and bearish economy and stock market)
130 Million barrels is 6.5 days of most extreme measure of current supply disruption so I agree 1.5 days global is not the most revealing framing But the oil would have found a home anyway...
Prediction markets are pricing in 2/3rds chance that U.S. boots are on the ground by the end of the year https://t.co/2kcrfgNU6v
