Jason Furman
Harvard economist; former Chair of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers. Posts timely analysis on inflation, wages, interest rates, and macro policy.
EV Tax Credit Outweighs Yearly Gas Price Rise
The EV tax credit that was terminated by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act was $7,500. The gas price increase--if sustained--is about $500 (per car per year).
Job Market Rebounds: 178K March Jobs, Unemployment at 4.3%
The job market continues to be reasonably good (for an aging workforce with low net immigration). 178K jobs in March, much a bounceback from strikes and weather that resulted in -133K (revised) in February. The three month average is 68K. Urate ticked...
Economists Unpack Housing Crisis and Policy Solutions
Ed Glaeser, Amy Tomasso and I discuss housing with Samantha Laine Perfas in a great podcast discussion. https://harvard-thinking.simplecast.com/episodes/housing-crisis-aSVnwqRm
Tariffs Boost Inflation, Stall Growth, Offer No Trade Gains
Four theses on tariff impacts: 1. Evidence clearly shows they've added 0.5-1.0pp to inflation. Evidence consistent with them subtracting from growth. And no evidence they've done anything good for manufacturing or trade deficits (but they have raised revenue).
2011 Oil Spike
Do you remember when oil prices topped $150/barrel in the wake of the Libya strikes in 2011? And stayed above that price for most of the next two years? OK, you may not remember it because you probably weren't thinking about...
FOMC Tweaks Dwarfed by Middle East Turmoil
The FOMC's forecast revisions were tiny compared to the images we're seeing from the Middle East.
Underlying PCE Inflation Hits 3.2% in January
The PCE-based ecumenical underlying inflation measure was 3.2% in January. This is the median of 24 numbers: 8 concepts measured over 3, 6 and 12 months.
Core PCE Inflation Slips to 3.1% in January
January was another hot month for PCE inflation (we're getting these data two weeks later than usual due to shutdown). Annual rates for core PCE: 4.5% 3.7% 3.1% 3.1%
Core CPI Stays Modest, Hovering Around 2.5‑3%
A relatively tame CPI for February which is, of course, the before times. Annual rates for core: 1 month: 2.6% 3 months: 3.0% 6 months: 2.3% 12 months: 2.5%
AI Boosts Productivity, Surpassing Pre‑Pandemic Forecasts
Are we finally seeing AI in the productivity data? A big upward revision to earlier data and strong Q4 bring us 2.2% above CBO's pre-pandemic forecast. Annual rates: 1 year: 2.8% 2 years: 2.5% 6 years: 2.2%
Investment Hinges on Capital Cost, Not Cash Windfalls
The tariff refund issue is fun to follow. But it doesn't matter much for the macroeconomy. Business investment determined more by cost of capital than cash availability. Keynesian multiplier very low on one-time transfers to businesses. And debt impact large...
Accounting Rules Reveal Shutdown’s Massive Real GDP Loss
A fun(?) 🧵 on how nerdy government accounting rules had a big impact on Q4 GDP. And how they reflect how wasteful the 43-day government shutdown was. TL;DR: Small reduction in nominal federal spending in Q4. But a big decline in...
Adjusted Q4 GDP Shows Stronger Growth, Q1 Rebound Expected
Real GDP rose at a 1.4% annual rate in Q4. But the "truth" is better because shutdown-induced real Federal spending cut subtracted 1.15pp. Expect much of that to be added back in Q1. Consumer spending (+2.4%) and business fixed investment (+3.7%)...
Core PCE Inflation Ends Year Elevated, Near 3%
A strong finish to the year for core PCE inflation. And not "strong" in a good way. Annual growth rates. 1 month: 4.3% 3 months: 3.1% 6 months: 2.9% 12 months: 3.0%
Data Hints at First Post‑WWII US Soft Landing
After this week's employment & inflation data it is starting to look like the elusive soft landing may finally happen. Would be the first indisputable US post-WW II soft landing. We've had false hopes before dashed by the underlying economic dynamics &...
