World Trade Organization (WTO)

Global Trade Outlook 2026: Press Conference

The WTO unveiled its 2026 Global Trade Outlook at a Geneva press conference, highlighting a stark slowdown in world merchandise trade after an unexpected 4.6% surge in 2025. Director‑General Dr. Goio Konjjoa and chief economist Robert Tiger warned that regional conflict in the Middle East and a cooling AI investment boom are the primary headwinds for 2026, with baseline merchandise trade growth projected at 1.9% and services trade at 4.8%. Key data points show that the 2025 trade boom was driven by two one‑off forces: a front‑loading of North American imports ahead of U.S. tariff hikes and a rapid expansion of AI‑related goods, whose import intensity can reach 70‑90%. Both are unlikely to recur, and sustained higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict could shave another 0.5 percentage points from merchandise trade, pushing growth to 1.4%. Services trade faces a similar drag, potentially falling to 4.1%. The DG emphasized that despite the turbulence, 72% of global merchandise trade still moves under MFN tariff terms, underscoring the resilience of the rules‑based system. He noted, “the rules‑based system may be battered, but it’s far from broken,” and highlighted the concentration of AI imports in a handful of economies—U.S., Taiwan, South Korea, Netherlands, Japan, and China—illustrating supply‑chain vulnerabilities. The outlook signals that WTO members must prioritize predictable trade policies, bolster supply‑chain resilience, and keep food‑trade corridors open to mitigate the conflict’s impact on fertilizer and food security. With the MC14 ministerial conference looming in Yaoundé, these forecasts will shape negotiations on reforms aimed at preserving multilateral trade benefits for all members.