Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD – March 16th, 2026

Key Takeaways

• EURUSD down 200 pips, second consecutive week
• Fed unlikely to cut rates further amid inflation concerns
• Elliott Wave suggests bearish impulse may be ending
• Potential support near 1.0600 if wave correction forms
• Traders watch US CPI data for directional cues

Summary

EURUSD slipped another 200 pips this week, marking a second consecutive decline as market expectations shift away from further Federal Reserve rate cuts. The move reflects heightened inflation risk and a stronger dollar, prompting analysts to apply Elliott Wave theory to gauge the pair’s next leg. The analysis suggests the current bearish wave may be nearing exhaustion, with key support levels identified around 1.0600. Investors are advised to monitor upcoming US CPI releases for potential catalyst.

Pulse Analysis

The euro‑dollar pair has entered a bearish phase, falling 200 pips for the second week in a row. The shift follows a reassessment of Federal Reserve policy, as investors now doubt any further rate cuts given stubborn inflation and stronger US economic data. A firmer dollar typically depresses the euro, tightening margins for European exporters and raising the cost of imported goods. This macro backdrop sets the stage for technical analysts to search for pattern‑based clues that could signal the next move.

Applying Elliott Wave theory, analysts identify the current decline as the fifth wave of a larger impulse, suggesting the downtrend is approaching completion. The wave count places the next corrective wave at a 1‑to‑1.618 Fibonacci retracement of the prior move, highlighting a potential support zone around 1.0600 to 1.0650. If price holds above this band, a brief rally could unfold as wave A of an A‑B‑C correction. Conversely, a breach would confirm the fifth wave, opening the path for deeper downside toward 1.0450.

Traders should align their risk parameters with the evolving macro narrative. The upcoming US Consumer Price Index report will either reinforce the Fed’s hawkish bias or introduce uncertainty that could revive rate‑cut speculation, each scenario moving EURUSD differently. Position sizing, stop‑loss placement near the identified support, and monitoring of volume‑weighted average price trends can help mitigate volatility. In the longer term, the euro’s trajectory will remain tied to the relative pace of monetary tightening in the United States versus the European Central Bank, making cross‑currency fundamentals as crucial as technical patterns.