Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY – April 13th, 2026

Key Takeaways

• USDJPY fell two weeks, support at 158.00 remained intact
• Elliott Wave suggests a corrective wave could end, enabling rally
• Traders eye 160.00 as breakout threshold for bullish momentum
• Failure at 158 may trigger further downside toward 155.00
• Momentum shift could affect carry‑trade flows and Asian markets

Pulse Analysis

The USDJPY pair has been under pressure, logging two weeks of declines that tested the 158.00 support zone. That level proved resilient, absorbing selling pressure and offering a clear reference point for market participants. In the foreign‑exchange market, where the yen often acts as a safe‑haven currency, such technical stability can embolden risk‑on traders who are looking for a catalyst to re‑enter long positions. The recent price action also reflects broader macro trends, including divergent monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which keep the pair in a tight range until a decisive technical break occurs.

Elliott Wave theory provides a framework for interpreting the current pattern. Analysts see the recent dip as the fifth wave of a corrective ABC structure, suggesting that the corrective phase is nearing completion. The next logical move, according to wave principles, would be an impulsive wave upward, targeting the 160.00 psychological barrier. A clean breakout above this level would confirm the wave count and likely trigger algorithmic buying, while a failure to sustain above 160 could invalidate the bullish scenario and extend the correction toward the next support around 155.00.

The implications extend beyond chartists. A sustained rally past 160 would strengthen the dollar against the yen, making yen‑denominated carry trades less attractive and potentially prompting capital outflows from Asian equities. Conversely, a breach below 158 could reignite safe‑haven demand for the yen, supporting risk‑averse positioning. Traders should monitor volume spikes at 158 and 160, watch for divergence in the Relative Strength Index, and keep an eye on upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could tip the balance in favor of either side of the range. By aligning wave analysis with macro fundamentals, market participants can better time entries and manage risk in this pivotal currency pair.