GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Short-Term Trend Turns Negative Below 210.00 Handle

Why It Matters

The pair’s slide underscores the widening policy divergence between the UK and Japan, influencing carry‑trade dynamics and prompting traders to reassess risk exposure in GBP‑linked assets.

Key Takeaways

• GBP/JPY down 0.93% to 207.28, near two‑month low.
• BoE expected to cut rates twice, first possibly March.
• Yen strength supported by BOJ tightening expectations.
• SMA 21 crossed below SMA 50, resistance at 208.5‑209.
• RSI at 31 indicates oversold but bearish momentum persists.

Pulse Analysis

The latest GBP/JPY move reflects a broader macro‑economic shift. Weak UK employment figures have revived expectations that the Bank of England will adopt a more dovish stance, potentially delivering two rate cuts within the year. This contrasts sharply with Japan’s tightening narrative, where the Bank of Japan is signaling a possible rate hike amid a stimulus‑friendly government. The resulting policy divergence fuels a classic carry‑trade unwind, pressuring the pound against a firming yen and reshaping short‑term currency flows.

From a technical perspective, the four‑hour chart confirms a decisive bearish transition. The 21‑period SMA slipping beneath the 50‑period SMA creates immediate resistance around 208.5‑209, while the pair tests support at 207 and could breach toward 205 if momentum persists. Momentum oscillators, including a MACD histogram below zero and an RSI hovering near 31, suggest fading upside and a risk of oversold conditions. Traders may consider short‑term sell positions targeting the 205 level, employing tight stops above the 210‑212 resistance zone to manage volatility.

Looking ahead, the GBP/JPY trajectory will hinge on two key catalysts: UK monetary policy announcements and Japanese policy shifts. A confirmed BoE rate cut in March would likely deepen the pound’s weakness, while any credible BOJ tightening signal could further bolster the yen. Market participants should monitor upcoming labour data, inflation releases, and central‑bank minutes for clues, and adjust exposure accordingly to navigate the evolving FX landscape.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Short-term trend turns negative below 210.00 handle

02/17/2026 13:22:59 GMT · Vishal Chaturvedi · FXStreet

GBP/JPY snaps a two‑day winning streak on Tuesday as weak UK labour‑market data fuels expectations of Bank of England (BoE) interest‑rate cuts, weighing on the British Pound (GBP). At the time of writing, GBP/JPY is trading around 207.28, down nearly 0.93 % on the day and hovering near a two‑month low.

Following the UK labour‑market data, markets are now fully pricing in two rate cuts by the BoE this year, with expectations building for the first reduction as early as March.

Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) holds firm across the board, underpinned by growing optimism around Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro‑stimulus policy agenda and firming expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could raise interest rates in the coming months.

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Technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the four‑hour chart suggests the short‑term structure has turned decisively bearish, with price action slipping below key moving averages.

• GBP/JPY reversed sharply from multi‑year highs after failing to sustain gains above the 214.00 mark earlier this month.

• Bearish momentum accelerated once the pair broke and retested the 210.00 psychological level, paving the way for fresh lower lows.

• The 21‑period Simple Moving Average (SMA) has crossed below the 50‑period SMA and is now acting as immediate resistance near 208.58, reinforcing the negative bias. Both moving averages continue to slope lower, while prices remain capped beneath them.

Support / resistance levels

• Immediate resistance: 208.50‑209.00

• Near‑term support: 207.00 (a break below could open the door toward 205.00)

• A decisive move back above 210.00 would be required to ease the downside bias, with 212.00 emerging as the next resistance zone.

Momentum indicators

• The MACD histogram has slipped slightly below the zero line, signaling a bearish crossover and fading upside momentum.

• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 31, approaching oversold territory, reflecting persistent selling pressure.

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Japanese Yen price today

| | USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF |

|----------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|

| USD | – | 0.27 %| 0.72 %| –0.23 %| 0.17 %| 0.45 %| 0.23 %| 0.23 %|

| EUR | –0.27 %| – | 0.45 %| –0.49 %| –0.09 %| 0.18 %| –0.05 %| –0.04 %|

| GBP | –0.72 %| –0.45 %| – | –0.91 %| –0.54 %| –0.27 %| –0.49 %| –0.49 %|

| JPY | 0.23 %| 0.49 %| 0.91 %| – | 0.42 %| 0.69 %| 0.45 %| 0.46 %|

| CAD | –0.17 %| 0.09 %| 0.54 %| –0.42 %| – | 0.27 %| 0.04 %| 0.05 %|

| AUD | –0.45 %| –0.18 %| 0.27 %| –0.69 %| –0.27 %| – | –0.22 %| –0.23 %|

| NZD | –0.23 %| 0.05 %| 0.49 %| –0.45 %| –0.04 %| 0.22 %| – | –0.00 %|

| CHF | –0.23 %| 0.04 %| 0.49 %| –0.46 %| –0.05 %| 0.23 %| 0.00 %| – |

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is taken from the left column, the quote currency from the top row.

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Author bio

Vishal Chaturvedi – FXStreet

I am a macro‑focused research analyst with over four years of experience covering forex and commodities markets. I enjoy breaking down complex economic trends and turning them into clear, actionable insights that help traders stay ahead of the curve.