5 in 5 with ANZ
Friday: Oil Down 4.9% as Iran Tensions Ease
5 in 5 with ANZ
•January 15, 2026•9 min
0
5 in 5 with ANZ•Jan 15, 2026
Why It Matters
Oil price movements affect everything from consumer fuel costs to corporate earnings, making this shift relevant for investors and businesses alike. Understanding the link between geopolitical events and commodity markets helps listeners anticipate similar price swings and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Key Takeaways
- •Oil prices drop 4.9% as Middle East tensions ease.
- •US jobless claims fall, suggesting resilient labor market.
- •Bank of Korea ends rate‑cut cycle, holds policy rate.
- •ECB may cut rates further, risk of inflation undershoot.
- •Chinese yuan likely to appreciate, still undervalued versus 2013.
Pulse Analysis
The episode opens with a swift market reaction: West Texas crude slid almost 5% after Middle‑East tensions eased, while the US labor market showed unexpected strength as weekly jobless claims fell. Analysts linked the softer claims to a temporary holiday effect but highlighted the broader picture of a resilient labor market that could keep disinflation pressures alive. Equities rallied, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted gains, and Treasury yields nudged higher, underscoring how geopolitical calm can quickly reshape risk sentiment.
On the policy front, the Bank of Korea signaled the end of its easing cycle by holding rates at 2.5% and dropping any forward‑looking cut language. This shift reflects a focus on financial stability amid housing market concerns and a cautious growth outlook. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is projected to continue rate cuts, but analysts warn of a potential inflation undershoot as wage growth stalls and core goods prices dip below 1%. The Fed, by contrast, is expected to pause in January before resuming cuts in March, with job data tempering expectations for an earlier move.
The deep‑dive interview with ANZ’s Head of Asia Research explains why the Chinese yuan is poised for further gains. Despite recent appreciation, the currency remains undervalued relative to its 2013 real effective exchange rate, and the People’s Bank of China is allowing a stronger fix. Capital inflows, improved trade sentiment, and seasonal exporter conversion ahead of the Chinese New Year add upward pressure. Exporters hold a massive $1.2 trillion in overseas dollar assets, providing a cushion that mitigates export‑competitiveness concerns even as the yuan strengthens. The analyst’s revised year‑end target of 6.85 per dollar reflects confidence in continued appreciation.
Episode Description
Oil prices slide nearly 5% as tensions ease in the Middle East. US job losses are less than expected. The Bank of Korea ends its rate cutting cycle and the European Central Bank faces an inflation undershoot.
In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research, Khoon Goh, explains why China’s currency is likely to keep appreciating.
Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Show Notes
View our full set of relevant disclosures.
For the latest forms, rates and terms for our banking solutions, please visit Important resources and forms.
The Five in Five with ANZ podcast accessible via www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/ or your media player (“communication”) has been prepared on behalf of Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited ABN 11 005 357 522 (“ANZ”) or (if otherwise stated), by its subsidiary or branch (herein collectively referred to as ANZ Group).
The communication is a collaboration of expertise provided by an external independent contractor engaged by ANZ (“Host”) and analysts of ANZ Research (an ANZ Group independent research team) and/or other ANZ experts. While the Host has taken care to represent views consistent with ANZ Research in the creation of this podcast, the Host is independent to ANZ Group and any differing interpretations the Host may have are strictly those of the Host and not of ANZ Group.
The opinions and research contained in this communication are (a) not personal financial advice nor financial advice about any product or service; (b) provided for information only; and (c) intended to be general in nature and do not take into account your financial situation or goals.
This communication may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions. Persons who receive this communication must inform themselves about and observe all relevant restrictions.
This communication is solely for informational purposes and nothing contained within is intended to be an invitation, solicitation or offer by ANZ Group to sell, or buy, receive or provide any product or service, or to participate in a particular trading strategy.
Distribution of this communication to you is only as may be permissible by the laws of your jurisdiction and is not directed to or intended for distribution or use by recipients resident or located in jurisdictions where its use or distribution would be contrary to those laws or regulations, or in jurisdictions where ANZ Group would be subject to additional licensing or registration requirements. Further, any products and services mentioned in this communication may not be available in all countries.
ANZ Group in no way provides any personal financial, legal, taxation or investment advice to you in connection with any product or service discussed in this communication. Before making any investment decision, recipients should seek independent financial, legal, tax and other relevant advice having regard to their particular circumstances.
Whilst care has been taken in the preparation of this communication and the information contained within is believed to be accurate, ANZ Group does not represent or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, except with respect to information concerning ANZ Group. Further, ANZ Group does not accept any responsibility to inform you of any matter that subsequently comes to its notice, which may affect the accuracy of the information in this communication.
Preparation of this communication and the opinions expressed in it may involve material elements of subjective judgement and analysis. Unless specifically stated otherwise: they are current on the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice; and all price information is indicative only. Any opinions expressed in this communication are subject to change at any time without notice.
ANZ Group does not guarantee the performance of any product mentioned in this communication. All investments entail a risk and may result in both profits and losses. Past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance. Any products and services described in this communication may not be suitable for all investors and transacting in these products or services may be considered risky.
ANZ Group expressly disclaims any responsibility and shall not be liable for any loss, damage, claim, liability, proceedings, cost or expense (Liability) arising directly or indirectly and whether in tort (including negligence), contract, equity or otherwise (including infringement of any third party rights) out of or in connection with this communication and your use of it to the extent permissible under relevant law. The contents of this communication have not been reviewed by any regulatory body or authority in any jurisdiction.
ANZ Group may have an interest in the subject matter of this communication. They may receive fees from customers for dealing in any products or services described in this communication, and their staff and introducers of business may share in such fees or remuneration that may be influenced by total sales, at all times received and/or apportioned in accordance with local regulatory requirements. Further, they or their customers may have or have had interests or long or short positions in any products or services described in this communication and may at any time make purchases and/or sales in them as principal or agent, as well as act (or have acted) as a market maker in such products. This communication is published in accordance with ANZ Group’s policies on conflicts of interest and ANZ Group maintains appropriate information barriers to control the flow of information between businesses within the group.
Your ANZ Group point of contact can assist with any questions about this communication including for further information on these disclosures of interest.
ANZ holds an Australian Financial Services licence no. 234527. For a copy of ANZ's Financial Services Guide please click hereor request from your ANZ point of contact.
0
Comments
Want to join the conversation?
Loading comments...