Future Of TikTok U.S.: A Conversation With Keen's Bradley Keefer

Why It Matters

Lower ad costs and higher ROI signal that TikTok remains a high‑impact channel despite ownership turbulence, influencing where marketers allocate incremental budgets.

Key Takeaways

• Ad costs down 36% after ownership change
• ROI up 60% YoY on TikTok ads
• 150% uninstall spike, but spend plateaued
• Brands should track reach, engagement, ROI
• TikTok Shop may follow Amazon‑Walmart model

Pulse Analysis

The turbulence surrounding TikTok’s U.S. ownership transition offers a case study in platform resilience. While the initial outage and a dramatic spike in uninstalls raised alarm bells, the subsequent 36% reduction in cost‑per‑spend has actually lowered the barrier for advertisers, driving a 60% increase in return on investment. This price‑adjustment strategy mirrors tactics used by legacy platforms to retain market share during periods of regulatory or legal pressure, suggesting that TikTok’s new custodians are prioritizing advertiser loyalty over short‑term profit margins.

For marketers, the key takeaway is a shift from intuition‑based budgeting to data‑driven monitoring. Metrics such as reach, engagement, and impression volume become early indicators of algorithmic or audience changes, while ROI and ROAS provide a profitability lens that filters out bot‑driven noise. Keen Decision Systems’ methodology of attributing 100% of a brand’s working dollars to incremental revenue underscores the importance of holistic measurement frameworks that capture both direct sales lift and longer‑term brand health.

Looking ahead, TikTok’s expansion into e‑commerce via TikTok Shop could reshape the advertising‑to‑conversion funnel, aligning the platform with Amazon and Walmart’s dual‑role as marketplace and media outlet. Simultaneously, the rise of niche video‑first environments like Twitch may fragment audience attention, prompting advertisers to diversify spend across multiple channels. Brands that continuously benchmark TikTok performance against emerging alternatives will be better positioned to allocate incremental dollars where the marginal return is highest, ensuring a balanced, future‑proof media mix.

Future Of TikTok U.S.: A Conversation With Keen's Bradley Keefer

By Colin Kirkland · 02/13/2026

In its first few days under new ownership, the U.S. version of popular video‑sharing platform TikTok faced widespread outages, backlash from users and a 150 % spike in uninstalls, according to Sensor Tower. But how has this major change impacted the brands relying on the app’s algorithm and global user base?

According to Chief Revenue Officer at marketing measurement and planning company Keen Decision Systems, Bradley Keefer, TikTok has continued to deliver improving efficiency as investment moderated, with ad costs down roughly 36 % in the days following the ownership changes, and ROI higher than prior years. Working with 450 brands—almost all of which utilize TikTok as a major channel—Keen looks at historical measurement, tracking incremental revenue, ROIs and net‑profit impacts for 100 % of a brand’s working dollars over time.

In doing so, Keefer believes the data points show normal market recalibration rather than instability with regard to the current state of TikTok’s U.S. platform, which warrants monitoring rather than pre‑emptive pullback.

To better understand how brands should be approaching TikTok’s new U.S. reality, MediaPost spoke with Keefer about what data points advertisers should be tracking, as well as the potential impacts of new ownership, AI and the proliferation of video‑first media channels.

This interview has been edited for concision and clarity.

MediaPost: What conversations have you been having with brands about TikTok’s new U.S. ownership?

Keen: Most brands were curious to see how the proposed deal would play out. They couldn't ignore TikTok because it was a very effective channel. So brands were always asking, “Should I invest more?” And that became, “Hey, let’s see how this plays out,” as most spending continued but plateaued.

MP: That aligns with what MediaPost has heard from brands as well.

Keen: TikTok also pivoted their cost‑per‑model. If we look at year‑over‑year, TikTok’s percent change in cost‑to‑spend decreased by about 35 %. So, obviously they had enough signal on their side that they needed to incentivize people to stay on board by charging less.

MP: That’s a significant decrease.

Keen: It is. Was this an attempt to drive people to stay on because of the external pressures of the litigation? Or was TikTok trying to gain more advertisers? We believe the former. At the end of the day, TikTok is the fourth largest media platform behind YouTube, Facebook and Instagram — they’ve earned their position to do so.

MP: And this supposed strategy to persuade advertisers to continue spending on TikTok worked?

Keen: I would say so. What we can see in our system is not only was the cost down, but what that does in a model like ours is it shows how much more upside they could spend from an investment perspective, before a brand hits a point of diminishing return. The benefit for an advertiser is that the ROI increases because the cost goes down, but it also shows that they could continue to spend more in that channel and be profitable at a much higher level of investment. In this economic environment, brands are looking for places they can drive incremental impact, and that also drives profitable incremental impact, which is important in our system. Overall, we saw a 60 % increase year‑over‑year in ROIs on TikTok.

MP: Still, are brands changing their strategies when it comes to preparing for any potential changes derived from a U.S. version of the app?

Keen: I think it’s still too early to say. Any time there are big management changes or things like this that happen, there are usually doubts among consumers. Yes, there was a 150 % increase in people unsubscribing from TikTok in the days following the deal. But it’s still a very, very big platform with huge reach. The question is — is this a trend, or is this just a valley? Most marketers that we’re talking to right now are not canceling their TikTok advertising spend because of a three‑week “panic button” kind of thing.

MP: Are brands contemplating how a nationalized app experience could alter their ad delivery to a global audience?

Keen: We are working with brands mostly focused on the U.S. market, but if I had customers executing a global TikTok strategy, it could change things. However, the more important question surrounds trust and brand tolerance. It depends on how brands feel about “the new regime,” whoever that might be. I think concerns will begin to surface later on if ad performance drops due to changes to the algorithm. I don’t think we’ll see the same withdrawal from TikTok as we saw from X when Elon took over.

MP: What performance data points should advertisers be tracking on TikTok?

Keen: I would track reach, just to see if the algorithms or audiences changed. Engagement and impressions will be an early indicator that something is different. Brands should also look at performance from an ROI perspective. That will tell you more about human‑specific impressions. The challenge with ROAS metrics is if you go from reach‑impression to attributed sales from a platform, that’s not telling you whether these were humans or bots. If your cost‑per‑spend goes up and your performance goes down, that will indicate that the marketing is less effective—or it’s less effective against a group, which is either human or not.

MP: Has this new consortium of owners raised privacy concerns among advertisers?

Keen: I would say no, because I think the state of the industry is concerned about privacy regardless of ownership changes, especially in relation to what large language models are doing to data, data monetization, data privacy, and data security.

MP: Will TikTok Shop be impacted by TikTok U.S.?

Keen: I think so — the new owners may start to see an opportunity there. Thinking about Amazon and Walmart’s DSP strategy, they went from being retailers to being ad platforms that sell goods. If TikTok started as an advertising shop, it just makes sense; they’re aiming for new streams of revenue, but they’re also trying to gather more first‑party data to make their advertising more effective. At the end of the day, the challenge for a social platform is always going to be about conversion. Unless you have that actual conversion, it’s hard for you to close that loop. That’s the advantage Walmart and Amazon have exposed in their earnings. TikTok Shop will likely follow that model: collecting data to prove your advertising story.

MP: If more creators and vendors continue to leave TikTok, what would you tell your clients?

Keen: I would ask, “Where did they go?” The creators have to go somewhere. Brands should think about who they are targeting and where those followers are. I don’t think the creator dictates where the industry goes. Instead, the followers dictate where the creator goes.

MP: Do you see any other platforms overtaking TikTok in the U.S.?

Keen: Not abruptly. There’s too much proliferation at this point in the social channels. It would be very hard for a new entrant to come in and capture all of this market share. You might actually see some of the gaming‑streaming platforms gain momentum, like Twitch. Those emerging channels are going to rise faster than brand‑new TikTok‑competitor apps.

MP: Do you eventually expect to see a rise in ad spend on TikTok in the U.S.?

Keen: I think it’s possible, but with more channels gaining users, advertisers are spreading their dollars around. Overall, advertisers should be thinking about where their next incremental dollar will drive the greatest return in a well‑balanced customer journey. Right now, if you’re spending on TikTok and you’re performing well, that doesn’t mean that the next $100,000 is going to perform at the same level. Your first $100,000 at another channel may cost more but could be more effective than spending your last $100 at TikTok.