Organic Search Traffic Is Down 2.5% YoY, New Data Shows

Why It Matters

The findings debunk the narrative that generative AI is killing SEO, confirming that search remains a core acquisition channel while highlighting a shift toward more fragmented SERP experiences.

Key Takeaways

• Organic traffic down 2.5% YoY across 40k US sites.
• Largest sites grew 1.6%; mid-sized lost traffic.
• AI Overviews appear in ~30% queries, cut CTR 35%.
• Paid click share rose 2 points, organic still dominates.
• SEO fragmentation increases competition for informational clicks.

Pulse Analysis

The recent Graphite study challenges a wave of alarmist commentary that generative AI tools are eroding the foundations of organic search. By leveraging Similarweb’s extensive panel and carrier data, the researchers compared traffic patterns from early 2024 to late 2025 across a broad cross‑section of the web. Their methodology, validated against Google Search Console and Analytics with a median correlation of 0.86, reveals a modest 2.5% YoY dip in organic visits—far from the catastrophic drops some analysts have projected. This stability suggests that user intent for information, navigation, and discovery continues to flow through traditional search engines.

A deeper dive into the data uncovers nuanced effects of AI‑driven SERP features, particularly the so‑called AI Overviews that surface in about one‑third of informational queries. While these concise answers reduce click‑through rates by roughly 35% when present, they do not displace the majority of organic clicks, especially for commercial or transactional queries where the impact is minimal. The modest rise in paid‑search share—about two percentage points—further indicates that advertisers are not siphoning away organic traffic at a disruptive scale; organic results still command roughly ten times more clicks than ads.

For marketers and SEO professionals, the takeaway is strategic rather than existential. The search landscape is fragmenting: more SERP features, AI snippets, and competing answer boxes mean fewer clicks are available for any single result. Success now hinges on diversified content formats, structured data, and a focus on high‑value, intent‑rich keywords that can earn visibility across both traditional listings and emerging AI overlays. Companies that adapt their optimization tactics to this evolving mix will preserve, and potentially grow, their organic foothold despite the incremental shifts introduced by AI.