With Three Contestants, the Globe’s New Great Game Is On

Why It Matters

The shifting balance of power reshapes global supply chains, energy markets and security calculations for multinational firms and investors.

Key Takeaways

• US confronts Iran with naval buildup under Trump
• China expands Belt‑and‑Road links through Iran
• Russia supplies drones to Iran, gains oil discounts
• Trump’s Panama Canal actions curb Chinese port acquisition
• Rare‑earth mining contracts surge in Central Asia

Pulse Analysis

The "New Great Game" reflects a fundamental evolution from the 19th‑century Anglo‑Russian rivalry to a 21st‑century three‑way contest. While the original Great Game focused on territorial control, today’s stakes are dominated by access to energy reserves and critical minerals that power the digital economy. Central Asia, the Middle East, the Arctic and the Indo‑Pacific have become overlapping spheres where the United States, China and Russia vie for influence, each leveraging military presence, economic aid and infrastructure projects to secure long‑term resource pipelines.

Under Donald Trump, the United States has adopted a force‑centric approach, deploying carrier groups to the Persian Gulf, imposing sanctions on Venezuela, and threatening to purchase Greenland. These moves aim to reaffirm American dominance over strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Panama Canal, while also signaling to Beijing and Moscow that U.S. power remains unchallenged. The aggressive posture has forced regional actors to reassess alliances, prompting some Central Asian states to welcome U.S. rare‑earth contracts as a counterweight to Chinese investment.

China and Russia respond by deepening economic ties and military cooperation. Beijing’s Belt‑and‑Road Initiative links Iranian oil to Chinese refineries at discounted rates, while Moscow supplies drones and weapons to Tehran, preserving a foothold in the Middle East. Both powers are also expanding naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz and the Arctic, testing coordination against U.S. maneuvers. For businesses, this geopolitical turbulence translates into heightened supply‑chain risk, volatile commodity prices, and the need for diversified sourcing strategies as the contest for resources intensifies.