What to Expect From Bangladesh's Upcoming Elections

The 2024 Bangladesh crisis began with student protests against a government‑favored quota for civil service jobs, quickly escalating into nationwide unrest that forced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee and the Awami League out of power. An interim administration headed by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus took charge, prioritising institutional clean‑up over immediate elections. Their agenda included establishing a new election commission, purging former regime officials, and drafting a political charter that proposes checks on executive authority, though the charter remains non‑binding.

As the election approaches, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) dominates the polls, pledging fiscal stabilization, diversification of the garment sector, and strict anti‑corruption measures aligned with the charter’s reforms. A secondary coalition—Jamaat‑Islami, the student‑led National Citizen Party, and the Democratic Party—offers a more ideologically mixed platform, blending cautious economic reforms with socially conservative policies. Regardless of the victor, the incoming government will inherit a strained macro‑economy: 5% fiscal deficit, 10% inflation, 38.5% public debt, and IMF‑mandated austerity, limiting policy space for ambitious social programs.

Internationally, Bangladesh is expected to pursue a balanced foreign policy toward both India and Pakistan. The BNP frames a “Bangladesh‑first” stance, seeking to restore trade links with India while re‑engaging Pakistan to mitigate historic tensions. Even the Jamaat‑Islami coalition, despite past anti‑India rhetoric, recognizes India’s trade importance and will likely temper its positions. This diplomatic equilibrium aims to safeguard sovereignty while attracting investment, a crucial factor for any post‑election government navigating economic recovery and democratic consolidation.