Diana Choyleva, Enodo Economics | China, the Iran War and the US | MoneyWeek Talks
Why It Matters
These dynamics signal a prolonged shift from trade to finance as the primary battleground between Washington and Beijing, with implications for currency supremacy, higher energy transit costs, and a more fragmented global capital market—factors that will reshape investment, trade and geopolitical risk allocations.
Summary
Diana Choyleva of Enodo Economics says her decade-old forecast of a fracturing global order driven by US–China great-power competition has largely played out, accelerated by shocks such as COVID, the tech conflict, inflation and Russia’s war in Ukraine. She argues China’s next phase is to ‘financialize’—building broad, deep liquid markets and a more internationalized currency—but that will take time and multiple actors. On the Middle East, Choyleva says recent US–Israeli strikes have degraded Iran’s military but not produced regime change, leaving uncertainty over who can guarantee Strait of Hormuz transit and likely higher costs or policing requirements. She warns the petrodollar remains central to dollar dominance, and the US is actively defending that system even as China challenges global capital and currency structures over the longer term.
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